Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 74%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.6K

Combined PnL

Smart Money Signal

Down

37 of 54 top traders (69%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%47 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down37 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,389

Combined PnL+$187.65

Up17 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares745

Combined PnL-$181.65

Down — 69%Up — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$8.8K	$8.4K	-$0.8	55% 542-437 (979)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$4.2K	$8.4K	+$4.3K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$4.2K	—	$-4.3K
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$15.23	44% 380-487 (867)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.5K	$5.0K	+$2.5K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.4K	—	$-2.5K
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.6K	+$1.26	45% 661-811 (1472)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.8K	$3.6K	+$1.9K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.7K	—	$-1.9K
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 77.1¢	$740.4	$640.44	-$72.96	59% 1185-840 (2025)
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.1¢	$493.69	$640.44	+$150.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.1¢	$223.59	—	-$223.59
machinelearned	Downavg 91.9¢	$752.68	$800	+$47.32	47% 1214-1343 (2557)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 51.5¢	$536.13	$504.78	+$4.79	54% 4350-3681 (8031)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.5¢	$259.77	$504.78	+$251.73
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.5¢	$235.66	—	-$246.95
ST stepahead	Downavg 83.9¢	$448.53	$415.37	-$33.17	55% 4649-3753 (8402)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 84¢	$422.78	$409.62	-$13.16	35% 850-1583 (2433)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 82.1¢	$373.52	$400.12	+$27.35	50% 4682-4738 (9420)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 86¢	$428.7	$310.28	-$118.41	47% 1208-1339 (2547)
└ Down leg	Downavg 86¢	$266.75	$310.28	+$43.53
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.7¢	$161.94	—	-$161.94
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 82.2¢	$203.79	$204.05	+$0.25	44% 861-1087 (1948)
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.2¢	$167.73	$204.05	+$36.32
└ Up leg	Upavg 15.6¢	$36.07	—	-$36.07
BL blue.birds	Downavg 80.9¢	$231.14	$241.9	+$21.72	52% 5230-4894 (10124)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 82¢	$183.54	$165.51	-$18.03	49% 3684-3801 (7485)
└ Down leg	Downavg 82¢	$135.71	$165.51	+$29.79
└ Up leg	Upavg 16.4¢	$47.82	—	-$47.82
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 74.8¢	$161.17	$151.13	-$10.04	51% 913-886 (1799)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.8¢	$113.05	$151.13	+$38.08
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.3¢	$48.12	—	-$48.12
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 53¢	$93.88	$177.13	+$83.25	51% 2246-2136 (4382)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 76.7¢	$144.37	$124.04	-$20.33	51% 2609-2462 (5071)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.7¢	$95.17	$124.04	+$28.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 25¢	$49.2	—	-$49.2
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 27.6¢	$200.3	$83.75	-$56.44	53% 1027-927 (1954)
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.6¢	$95.95	—	-$95.95
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.8¢	$55.97	$83.75	+$39.51
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100	Downavg 85.2¢	$116.72	$126	+$9.28	47% 844-952 (1796)
└ Down leg	Downavg 85.2¢	$107.41	$126	+$18.59
└ Up leg	Upavg 6.8¢	$9.31	—	-$9.31
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Downavg 87.6¢	$96.65	$99.99	+$3.34	54% 1091-944 (2035)
LI Little-big	Downavg 98¢	$98	$100	+$2	51% 1162-1108 (2270)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 60¢	$51.75	$50	-$1.75	45% 902-1084 (1986)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60¢	$30	$50	+$20
└ Up leg	Upavg 18.7¢	$21.75	—	-$21.75
AL almach<$100	Downavg 94¢	$75.69	$80.52	+$4.83	52% 1710-1607 (3317)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100	Downavg 78.2¢	$80.3	$70.83	+$18.87	59% 1132-787 (1919)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 96.5¢	$61.67	$59	-$2.67	53% 3113-2811 (5924)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Downavg 79.3¢	$53.14	$45	-$8.14	49% 960-1012 (1972)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Invested

$8,762

Value

$8.4K

PnL

-$0.8

Record

55%

542-437 (979)

Both legs:

Down$4,184.6250¢+$4.3K

Up$4,216.8350¢$-4.3K

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$15.23

Record

44%

380-487 (867)

Both legs:

Down$2,477.0150¢+$2.5K

Up$2,420.0150¢$-2.5K

machine-earningARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$1.26

Record

45%

661-811 (1472)

Both legs:

Down$1,783.3850¢+$1.9K

Up$1,720.6750¢$-1.9K

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$740.4

Value

$640.44

PnL

-$72.96

Record

59%

1185-840 (2025)

Both legs:

Down$493.6977.1¢+$150.63

Up$223.5929.1¢-$223.59

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$752.68

Value

$800

PnL

+$47.32

Record

47%

1214-1343 (2557)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$536.13

Value

$504.78

PnL

+$4.79

Record

54%

4350-3681 (8031)

Both legs:

Down$259.7751.5¢+$251.73

Up$235.6647.5¢-$246.95

stepahead

Down

Invested

$448.53

Value

$415.37

PnL

-$33.17

Record

55%

4649-3753 (8402)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$422.78

Value

$409.62

PnL

-$13.16

Record

35%

850-1583 (2433)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$373.52

Value

$400.12

PnL

+$27.35

Record

50%

4682-4738 (9420)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$428.7

Value

$310.28

PnL

-$118.41

Record

47%

1208-1339 (2547)

Both legs:

Down$266.7586¢+$43.53

Up$161.9435.7¢-$161.94

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$203.79

Value

$204.05

PnL

+$0.25

Record

44%

861-1087 (1948)

Both legs:

Down$167.7382.2¢+$36.32

Up$36.0715.6¢-$36.07

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$231.14

Value

$241.9

PnL

+$21.72

Record

52%

5230-4894 (10124)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$183.54

Value

$165.51

PnL

-$18.03

Record

49%

3684-3801 (7485)

Both legs:

Down$135.7182¢+$29.79

Up$47.8216.4¢-$47.82

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$161.17

Value

$151.13

PnL

-$10.04

Record

51%

913-886 (1799)

Both legs:

Down$113.0574.8¢+$38.08

Up$48.1233.3¢-$48.12

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$93.88

Value

$177.13

PnL

+$83.25

Record

51%

2246-2136 (4382)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$144.37

Value

$124.04

PnL

-$20.33

Record

51%

2609-2462 (5071)

Both legs:

Down$95.1776.7¢+$28.87

Up$49.225¢-$49.2

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$200.3

Value

$83.75

PnL

-$56.44

Record

53%

1027-927 (1954)

Both legs:

Up$95.9527.6¢-$95.95

Down$55.9766.8¢+$39.51

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$116.72

Value

$126

PnL

+$9.28

Record

47%

844-952 (1796)

Both legs:

Down$107.4185.2¢+$18.59

Up$9.316.8¢-$9.31

EZTRADENL2<$100

Down

Invested

$96.65

Value

$99.99

PnL

+$3.34

Record

54%

1091-944 (2035)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$98

Value

$100

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

1162-1108 (2270)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$51.75

Value

$50

PnL

-$1.75

Record

45%

902-1084 (1986)

Both legs:

Invested

$75.69

Value

$80.52

PnL

+$4.83

Record

52%

1710-1607 (3317)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100

Down

Invested

$80.3

Value

$70.83

PnL

+$18.87

Record

59%

1132-787 (1919)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$61.67

Value

$59

PnL

-$2.67

Record

53%

3113-2811 (5924)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Down

Invested

$53.14

Value

$45

PnL

-$8.14

Record

49%

960-1012 (1972)

Smart Money Signal

Down

37 of 54 top traders (69%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%47 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x8855385c...d25dff

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794775200

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

machine-earning

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Down — $800

+$47.32

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$4.79

stepahead

Down — $415.37

-$33.17

ply-pm0

Down — $409.62

-$13.16

asdcaxz

Down — $400.12

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded