Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET

36 of 50 top Polymarket traders hold Down (72%) · Down at 100¢ · $27K held · ended Nov 15

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 72%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.9K

Combined PnL

-$348.96

Smart Money Entry

57.4¢ → 100¢

+74% since entry · 36 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

36 of 50 top traders (72%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down36 traders

Total Value$24.8K

Total Shares25,372

Combined PnL-$70.68

Up14 traders

Total Value$511.49

Total Shares2,238

Combined PnL-$278.29

Down — 72%Up — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 50¢	$8.6K	$8.3K	+$45.49	55% 535-432 (967)
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.8K	+$37.72	44% 372-483 (855)
MA machine-earning	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.7K	+$1.27	45% 653-807 (1460)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 62.3¢	$826.08	$978.53	+$152.44	47% 1199-1332 (2531)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 67.6¢	$1.3K	$939.2	-$274.96	59% 1181-831 (2012)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 75.9¢	$893.75	$802.2	+$1.55	50% 4663-4717 (9380)
ST stepahead	Downavg 67¢	$838.41	$797	-$41.41	55% 4640-3746 (8386)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 64.7¢	$779.63	$762.45	+$84.62	52% 5221-4890 (10111)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 76.6¢	$588.75	$603.57	+$14.81	35% 843-1578 (2421)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 52.1¢	$581.67	$499.41	+$1.3	54% 4311-3659 (7970)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.1¢	$255.65	$267.35	+$19.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.8¢	$238.56	$232.06	-$18.37
NIULAI4	Downavg 70.5¢	$277.31	$377.6	+$100.3	31% 606-1379 (1985)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 60¢	$349.2	$352.16	+$2.96	49% 3667-3775 (7442)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60¢	$205.37	$278.89	+$73.52
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.3¢	$143.83	$73.27	-$70.56
MO mo-money	Downavg 82.7¢	$395.6	$338.43	-$57.17	52% 1712-1586 (3298)
machinelearned	Downavg 81¢	$333.09	$335.15	+$2.06	48% 1211-1334 (2545)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Downavg 77.9¢	$301.9	$326.19	+$24.29	51% 906-876 (1782)
AL almach	Downavg 79.7¢	$266.42	$277.45	+$11.03	51% 1698-1601 (3299)
BO bosona	Downavg 80.4¢	$471.25	$238.6	-$232.64	51% 4957-4706 (9663)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 28.3¢	$280.99	$213.95	-$67.04	44% 857-1079 (1936)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 68.4¢	$155.02	$212.47	+$57.45	51% 2231-2120 (4351)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 59.3¢	$175.93	$192.76	+$16.83	51% 2593-2447 (5040)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 32.1¢	$175.66	$157.65	-$18.01	45% 897-1077 (1974)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63¢	$78.67	$101.7	+$23.02
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.1¢	$96.99	$55.95	-$41.04
PB PBot-6CTR	Upavg 49.7¢	$161.31	$154.2	-$7.11	50% 997-986 (1983)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 94.2¢	$130.41	$114.57	-$15.84	51% 906-882 (1788)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Downavg 72.3¢	$131.31	$104.26	-$27.05	50% 904-900 (1804)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.3¢	$68.36	$77.02	+$8.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.8¢	$62.95	$27.24	-$35.71
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Downavg 70.8¢	$99.74	$92.77	-$6.97	49% 953-1001 (1954)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down

Invested

$8,583

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$45.49

Record

55%

535-432 (967)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$37.72

Record

44%

372-483 (855)

machine-earning

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$1.27

Record

45%

653-807 (1460)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$826.08

Value

$978.53

PnL

+$152.44

Record

47%

1199-1332 (2531)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,254.81

Value

$939.2

PnL

-$274.96

Record

59%

1181-831 (2012)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$893.75

Value

$802.2

PnL

+$1.55

Record

50%

4663-4717 (9380)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$838.41

Value

$797

PnL

-$41.41

Record

55%

4640-3746 (8386)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$779.63

Value

$762.45

PnL

+$84.62

Record

52%

5221-4890 (10111)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$588.75

Value

$603.57

PnL

+$14.81

Record

35%

843-1578 (2421)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$581.67

Value

$499.41

PnL

+$1.3

Record

54%

4311-3659 (7970)

Both legs:

Down$255.6552.1¢+$19.68

Up$238.5646.8¢-$18.37

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$277.31

Value

$377.6

PnL

+$100.3

Record

31%

606-1379 (1985)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$349.2

Value

$352.16

PnL

+$2.96

Record

49%

3667-3775 (7442)

Both legs:

Down$205.3760¢+$73.52

Up$143.8336.3¢-$70.56

mo-money

Down

Invested

$395.6

Value

$338.43

PnL

-$57.17

Record

52%

1712-1586 (3298)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$333.09

Value

$335.15

PnL

+$2.06

Record

48%

1211-1334 (2545)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Down

Invested

$301.9

Value

$326.19

PnL

+$24.29

Record

51%

906-876 (1782)

almach

Down

Invested

$266.42

Value

$277.45

PnL

+$11.03

Record

51%

1698-1601 (3299)

bosona

Down

Invested

$471.25

Value

$238.6

PnL

-$232.64

Record

51%

4957-4706 (9663)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$280.99

Value

$213.95

PnL

-$67.04

Record

44%

857-1079 (1936)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$155.02

Value

$212.47

PnL

+$57.45

Record

51%

2231-2120 (4351)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$175.93

Value

$192.76

PnL

+$16.83

Record

51%

2593-2447 (5040)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$175.66

Value

$157.65

PnL

-$18.01

Record

45%

897-1077 (1974)

Both legs:

Down$78.6763¢+$23.02

Up$96.9932.1¢-$41.04

PBot-6CTR

Invested

$161.31

Value

$154.2

PnL

-$7.11

Record

50%

997-986 (1983)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$130.41

Value

$114.57

PnL

-$15.84

Record

51%

906-882 (1788)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$131.31

Value

$104.26

PnL

-$27.05

Record

50%

904-900 (1804)

Both legs:

Down$68.3672.3¢+$8.66

Up$62.9542.8¢-$35.71

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Down

Invested

$99.74

Value

$92.77

PnL

-$6.97

Record

49%

953-1001 (1954)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

36 of 50 top traders (72%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.