Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (86%). 13 of 45 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET

13 of 45 top Polymarket traders hold Up (29%) · Up at 14¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 15

Up14¢Down86¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 29%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.1K

Combined PnL

-$106.75

Smart Money Entry

49.6¢ → 14.5¢

-71% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 45 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Down 86%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up14%

Down86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up13 traders

Total Value$12.2K

Total Shares12,600

Combined PnL-$70.94

Down32 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares8,901

Combined PnL-$35.81

Up — 29%Down — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 49.9¢	$8.8K	$8.3K	-$4.92	55% 530-425 (955)
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$0.03	43% 364-479 (843)
MA machine-earningCTR	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.7K	-$48.65	45% 649-799 (1448)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 68.9¢	$813.21	$782.72	+$27.3	59% 1174-824 (1998)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.2¢	$527.3	$498.57	-$2.59	54% 4282-3627 (7909)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.2¢	$250.75	$377.5	+$127.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$246.54	$121.07	-$129.79
ST stepahead	Downavg 75.2¢	$436.51	$430.17	-$6.34	55% 4634-3736 (8370)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 74.4¢	$441.69	$357.28	-$84.4	47% 1193-1322 (2515)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.4¢	$246.66	$283.56	+$36.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.4¢	$195.03	$73.72	-$121.31
MO mo-money	Downavg 86¢	$407.95	$311.41	-$96.54	52% 1704-1576 (3280)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 69.3¢	$293.15	$294.15	+$1	35% 837-1572 (2409)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 77.9¢	$240.01	$227.32	-$12.69	49% 3651-3756 (7407)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 40.3¢	$236.84	$222.58	-$14.25	51% 2574-2433 (5007)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.5¢	$101.13	$140.07	+$38.94
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.3¢	$135.71	$82.51	-$53.2
BO bosona	Downavg 85¢	$174.07	$175.1	+$1.02	51% 4946-4701 (9647)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 57.8¢	$106.99	$158.34	+$51.35	53% 1014-916 (1930)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 77.8¢	$151.78	$153.28	+$1.49	50% 4644-4696 (9340)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 83.8¢	$241.71	$148.52	-$8.19	52% 5211-4882 (10093)
└ Down leg	Downavg 83.8¢	$105.29	$107.37	+$3.23
└ Up leg	Upavg 18.5¢	$52.57	$41.15	-$11.42
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Downavg 84¢	$136.32	$95.72	-$40.6	51% 899-872 (1771)
└ Down leg	Downavg 84¢	$75.13	$75.58	+$0.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.1¢	$61.19	$20.14	-$41.05
GA gansinimen<$100	Downavg 86¢	$86	$85.5	-$0.5	52% 477-445 (922)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100	Downavg 55.7¢	$78.04	$78.7	+$0.66	51% 917-871 (1788)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 81.8¢	$84.35	$77.83	-$6.52	70% 1855-804 (2659)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 84¢	$107.87	$75.3	-$32.57	48% 1204-1329 (2533)
└ Down leg	Downavg 84¢	$55.33	$53.03	-$2.31
└ Up leg	Upavg 46¢	$52.54	$22.27	-$30.27
OhioAI<$100	Downavg 64.6¢	$68.24	$71.96	+$6.7	50% 888-875 (1763)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 84.9¢	$87.45	$71.54	-$14.32	47% 2471-2739 (5210)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 75.7¢	$60.55	$68.4	+$7.85	43% 2435-3165 (5600)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100	Downavg 57.3¢	$51.62	$67.72	+$16.1	51% 901-876 (1777)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 86¢	$64.08	$63.71	-$0.37	40% 1760-2679 (4439)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,791

Value

$8.3K

PnL

-$4.92

Record

55%

530-425 (955)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$0.03

Record

43%

364-479 (843)

machine-earningCTR

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$48.65

Record

45%

649-799 (1448)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$813.21

Value

$782.72

PnL

+$27.3

Record

59%

1174-824 (1998)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$527.3

Value

$498.57

PnL

-$2.59

Record

54%

4282-3627 (7909)

Both legs:

Down$250.7550.2¢+$127.2

Up$246.5449.9¢-$129.79

stepahead

Down

Invested

$436.51

Value

$430.17

PnL

-$6.34

Record

55%

4634-3736 (8370)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$441.69

Value

$357.28

PnL

-$84.4

Record

47%

1193-1322 (2515)

Both legs:

Down$246.6674.4¢+$36.9

Up$195.0338.4¢-$121.31

mo-money

Down

Invested

$407.95

Value

$311.41

PnL

-$96.54

Record

52%

1704-1576 (3280)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$293.15

Value

$294.15

PnL

+$1

Record

35%

837-1572 (2409)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$240.01

Value

$227.32

PnL

-$12.69

Record

49%

3651-3756 (7407)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$236.84

Value

$222.58

PnL

-$14.25

Record

51%

2574-2433 (5007)

Both legs:

Down$101.1354.5¢+$38.94

Up$135.7140.3¢-$53.2

bosona

Down

Invested

$174.07

Value

$175.1

PnL

+$1.02

Record

51%

4946-4701 (9647)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$106.99

Value

$158.34

PnL

+$51.35

Record

53%

1014-916 (1930)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$151.78

Value

$153.28

PnL

+$1.49

Record

50%

4644-4696 (9340)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$241.71

Value

$148.52

PnL

-$8.19

Record

52%

5211-4882 (10093)

Both legs:

Down$105.2983.8¢+$3.23

Up$52.5718.5¢-$11.42

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$136.32

Value

$95.72

PnL

-$40.6

Record

51%

899-872 (1771)

Both legs:

Invested

$86

Value

$85.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

52%

477-445 (922)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100

Down

Invested

$78.04

Value

$78.7

PnL

+$0.66

Record

51%

917-871 (1788)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$84.35

Value

$77.83

PnL

-$6.52

Record

70%

1855-804 (2659)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$107.87

Value

$75.3

PnL

-$32.57

Record

48%

1204-1329 (2533)

Both legs:

Invested

$68.24

Value

$71.96

PnL

+$6.7

Record

50%

888-875 (1763)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$87.45

Value

$71.54

PnL

-$14.32

Record

47%

2471-2739 (5210)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$60.55

Value

$68.4

PnL

+$7.85

Record

43%

2435-3165 (5600)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100

Down

Invested

$51.62

Value

$67.72

PnL

+$16.1

Record

51%

901-876 (1777)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$64.08

Value

$63.71

PnL

-$0.37

Record

40%

1760-2679 (4439)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 45 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Down 86%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance16.4%

14.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$509.13

Max Loss

-$100.00

609.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.