Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
Resolved Up. 31% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
52
Down 31%
7 arb excluded
$8.7K
$-16.3K
Smart Money Signal
16 of 52 top traders (31%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.7K | — | $-7.2K | 55% 530-425 (955) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.9K | 43% 364-479 (843) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.4K | 45% 649-799 (1448) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 68.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$63.45 | 59% 1174-824 (1998) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 75¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$17.66 | 50% 4644-4696 (9340) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 72.9¢ | $783.13 | $790.95 | +$7.82 | 52% 5211-4882 (10093) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 67.9¢ | $533.09 | $574.9 | +$41.81 | 35% 837-1572 (2409) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 52.7¢ | $605.29 | $501.08 | -$6.83 | 54% 4282-3627 (7909) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 71.5¢ | $471.54 | $470.22 | -$1.32 | 55% 4634-3736 (8370) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 71.6¢ | $423.75 | $399.42 | -$24.33 | 49% 3651-3756 (7407) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 66.2¢ | $406.33 | $343.39 | -$62.94 | 47% 1193-1322 (2515) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 63.6¢ | $299.92 | $286.53 | -$13.39 | 47% 833-942 (1775) |
PB PBot-6ARB<$100 | Downavg 45.2¢ | $249.6 | $150 | -$99.61 | 50% 986-979 (1965) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.2¢ | $173.61 | — | -$173.61 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.7¢ | $76 | $150 | +$74 | |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Upavg 83.9¢ | $243.37 | $260.69 | +$17.31 | 50% 900-893 (1793) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 82.1¢ | $236.04 | $213.88 | -$22.16 | 51% 2574-2433 (5007) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 80.3¢ | $217.45 | $212.08 | -$5.37 | 66% 4016-2029 (6045) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Downavg 37.1¢ | $314.3 | — | -$295.4 | 53% 1014-916 (1930) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100 | Upavg 58.3¢ | $182.44 | $229.07 | +$46.62 | 48% 842-915 (1757) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 58.3¢ | $133.66 | $229.07 | +$95.41 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.3¢ | $48.79 | — | -$48.79 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 96¢ | $174.72 | $182 | +$7.28 | 98% 4560-95 (4655) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Downavg 46.5¢ | $145.99 | — | -$145.99 | 51% 2213-2109 (4322) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 75.8¢ | $180.09 | $147 | -$33.1 | 46% 894-1068 (1962) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 33.1¢ | $185.97 | — | -$185.97 | 44% 853-1071 (1924) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100 | Upavg 60¢ | $127.84 | $130.72 | +$2.88 | 51% 917-871 (1788) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60¢ | $78.37 | $130.72 | +$52.34 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.4¢ | $49.46 | — | -$49.46 | |
 OhioAI | Upavg 66.6¢ | $181.64 | $125.86 | -$33.1 | 50% 888-875 (1763) |
AL almach | Upavg 75.2¢ | $123.63 | $113.86 | -$9.78 | 51% 1687-1592 (3279) |
Invested
$8,723
Value
—
PnL
$-7.2K
Record
55%
530-425 (955)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
43%
364-479 (843)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.4K
Record
45%
649-799 (1448)
Invested
$1,074.63
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$63.45
Record
59%
1174-824 (1998)
Invested
$1,040.73
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$17.66
Record
50%
4644-4696 (9340)
Invested
$783.13
Value
$790.95
PnL
+$7.82
Record
52%
5211-4882 (10093)
Invested
$533.09
Value
$574.9
PnL
+$41.81
Record
35%
837-1572 (2409)
Invested
$605.29
Value
$501.08
PnL
-$6.83
Record
54%
4282-3627 (7909)
Invested
$471.54
Value
$470.22
PnL
-$1.32
Record
55%
4634-3736 (8370)
Invested
$423.75
Value
$399.42
PnL
-$24.33
Record
49%
3651-3756 (7407)
Invested
$406.33
Value
$343.39
PnL
-$62.94
Record
47%
1193-1322 (2515)
Invested
$299.92
Value
$286.53
PnL
-$13.39
Record
47%
833-942 (1775)
Invested
$249.6
Value
$150
PnL
-$99.61
Record
50%
986-979 (1965)
Both legs:
Invested
$243.37
Value
$260.69
PnL
+$17.31
Record
50%
900-893 (1793)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$236.04
Value
$213.88
PnL
-$22.16
Record
51%
2574-2433 (5007)
Invested
$217.45
Value
$212.08
PnL
-$5.37
Record
66%
4016-2029 (6045)
Invested
$314.3
Value
—
PnL
-$295.4
Record
53%
1014-916 (1930)
Invested
$182.44
Value
$229.07
PnL
+$46.62
Record
48%
842-915 (1757)
Both legs:
Invested
$174.72
Value
$182
PnL
+$7.28
Record
98%
4560-95 (4655)
Invested
$145.99
Value
—
PnL
-$145.99
Record
51%
2213-2109 (4322)
Invested
$180.09
Value
$147
PnL
-$33.1
Record
46%
894-1068 (1962)
Invested
$185.97
Value
—
PnL
-$185.97
Record
44%
853-1071 (1924)
Invested
$127.84
Value
$130.72
PnL
+$2.88
Record
51%
917-871 (1788)
Both legs:
OhioAIInvested
$181.64
Value
$125.86
PnL
-$33.1
Record
50%
888-875 (1763)
Invested
$123.63
Value
$113.86
PnL
-$9.78
Record
51%
1687-1592 (3279)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
Up — $1.1K
asdcaxz
Up — $1.0K
blue.birds
Up — $790.95
ply-pm0
Up — $574.9
ByteBadger92
Up — $501.08
stepahead
Up — $470.22
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $399.42