Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
61
Down 55%
1 arb excluded
$6.8K
$-19.4K
Smart Money Signal
33 of 61 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed33 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-7.6K | 55% 530-425 (955) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.9K | 43% 364-479 (843) |
MA machine-earning | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.7K | +$102.82 | 45% 649-799 (1448) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 56.2¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 59% 1174-824 (1998) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$861.41 | 52% 3909-3625 (7534) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 63.9¢ | $789.6 | — | -$789.6 | 47% 1193-1322 (2515) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 53.7¢ | $524.24 | — | -$520.79 | 44% 853-1071 (1924) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 67.4¢ | $544.31 | — | -$544.31 | 55% 4634-3736 (8370) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50.9¢ | $573.69 | — | -$492.21 | 54% 4282-3627 (7909) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 53.4¢ | $559.17 | — | -$559.17 | 35% 837-1572 (2409) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 45.8¢ | $452.96 | $483.76 | +$31.8 | 52% 5211-4882 (10093) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Downavg 63.5¢ | $609.84 | — | -$567.88 | 50% 4644-4696 (9340) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 60.4¢ | $384.47 | — | -$384.47 | 46% 894-1068 (1962) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Downavg 68.4¢ | $353.77 | — | -$353.77 | 53% 1014-916 (1930) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 91.8¢ | $284.5 | $283.5 | -$1 | 51% 917-871 (1788) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Downavg 72.7¢ | $261.46 | $211.4 | -$50.06 | 51% 1687-1592 (3279) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 72.7¢ | $153.66 | — | -$153.66 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51¢ | $107.8 | $211.4 | +$103.6 | |
 OhioAI | Upavg 37.2¢ | $132.22 | $200.99 | +$103.38 | 50% 888-875 (1763) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 49.5¢ | $214.52 | — | -$195.12 | 51% 2574-2433 (5007) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR | Downavg 82.7¢ | $208.18 | — | -$208.18 | 50% 900-893 (1793) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 42.8¢ | $87.01 | $175.29 | +$88.28 | 42% 894-1210 (2104) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Upavg 65.5¢ | $152.11 | $161.91 | +$9.81 | 51% 899-872 (1771) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 48.7¢ | $93.61 | $162.81 | +$69.2 | 52% 477-445 (922) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 84¢ | $175.73 | $157.5 | -$18.23 | 47% 833-942 (1775) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 94¢ | $217.93 | $152.5 | -$65.43 | 30% 602-1375 (1977) |
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR | Downavg 38.6¢ | $128.35 | — | -$128.35 | 49% 950-986 (1936) |
Invested
$8,795
Value
—
PnL
$-7.6K
Record
55%
530-425 (955)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
43%
364-479 (843)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$102.82
Record
45%
649-799 (1448)
Invested
$1,123.85
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
59%
1174-824 (1998)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$861.41
Record
52%
3909-3625 (7534)
Invested
$789.6
Value
—
PnL
-$789.6
Record
47%
1193-1322 (2515)
Invested
$524.24
Value
—
PnL
-$520.79
Record
44%
853-1071 (1924)
Invested
$544.31
Value
—
PnL
-$544.31
Record
55%
4634-3736 (8370)
Invested
$573.69
Value
—
PnL
-$492.21
Record
54%
4282-3627 (7909)
Invested
$559.17
Value
—
PnL
-$559.17
Record
35%
837-1572 (2409)
Invested
$452.96
Value
$483.76
PnL
+$31.8
Record
52%
5211-4882 (10093)
Invested
$609.84
Value
—
PnL
-$567.88
Record
50%
4644-4696 (9340)
Invested
$384.47
Value
—
PnL
-$384.47
Record
46%
894-1068 (1962)
Invested
$353.77
Value
—
PnL
-$353.77
Record
53%
1014-916 (1930)
Invested
$284.5
Value
$283.5
PnL
-$1
Record
51%
917-871 (1788)
Invested
$261.46
Value
$211.4
PnL
-$50.06
Record
51%
1687-1592 (3279)
Both legs:
OhioAIInvested
$132.22
Value
$200.99
PnL
+$103.38
Record
50%
888-875 (1763)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$214.52
Value
—
PnL
-$195.12
Record
51%
2574-2433 (5007)
Invested
$208.18
Value
—
PnL
-$208.18
Record
50%
900-893 (1793)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$87.01
Value
$175.29
PnL
+$88.28
Record
42%
894-1210 (2104)
Invested
$152.11
Value
$161.91
PnL
+$9.81
Record
51%
899-872 (1771)
Invested
$93.61
Value
$162.81
PnL
+$69.2
Record
52%
477-445 (922)
Invested
$175.73
Value
$157.5
PnL
-$18.23
Record
47%
833-942 (1775)
NIULAI4Invested
$217.93
Value
$152.5
PnL
-$65.43
Record
30%
602-1375 (1977)
Invested
$128.35
Value
—
PnL
-$128.35
Record
49%
950-986 (1936)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
Up — $3.7K
Bonereaper
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRDown — $0
stepahead
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm0
CTRDown — $0