Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET

Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 75%

Total Value

$18.8K

Combined PnL

$-8.4K

Smart Money Signal

45 of 60 top traders (75%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,422

Combined PnL$-8.5K

Up45 traders

Total Value$18.8K

Total Shares18,795

Combined PnL+$107.38

Down — 25%Up — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Downavg 50¢	$8.8K	—	$-7.8K	55% 530-425 (955)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	-$12.1	43% 364-479 (843)
MA machine-earning	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.5K	-$61.28	45% 649-799 (1448)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 85¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$2.57	47% 1193-1322 (2515)
SO soswald1	Upavg 50¢	$950	$948.08	+$0.23	52% 3909-3625 (7534)
AL almach	Upavg 75.1¢	$487.13	$632.3	+$145.18	51% 1687-1592 (3279)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 75¢	$732.51	$573.24	-$159.28	59% 1174-824 (1998)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 73¢	$563.11	$568.28	+$53.66	50% 4644-4696 (9340)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 85.8¢	$501.72	$510.53	+$8.81	35% 837-1572 (2409)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 51.2¢	$584.2	$498.18	+$10.52	54% 4282-3627 (7909)
ST stepahead	Upavg 71.5¢	$521.97	$491.21	-$30.75	55% 4634-3736 (8370)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 73.3¢	$536.46	$466.32	-$70.14	44% 853-1071 (1924)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 79.8¢	$514.08	$461.21	+$15.81	52% 5211-4882 (10093)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 79.2¢	$359.9	$372.88	+$12.97	46% 894-1068 (1962)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 71.6¢	$318.46	$346	+$27.54	51% 2574-2433 (5007)
BO bosona	Upavg 84.8¢	$295.08	$347.98	+$52.9	51% 4946-4701 (9647)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 74¢	$311.18	$263.08	-$4.3	49% 3651-3756 (7407)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 81.3¢	$261.87	$235.56	-$26.31	52% 477-445 (922)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 74¢	$231.96	$227.35	-$4.61	51% 901-876 (1777)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 77.6¢	$190.29	$223.17	+$34.68	54% 4688-4063 (8751)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 89.5¢	$181.19	$202.42	+$21.23	62% 4692-2855 (7547)
MO mo-money	Upavg 75.2¢	$153.7	$204.29	+$50.59	52% 1704-1576 (3280)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Upavg 76.8¢	$162.54	$157.5	-$5.04	47% 833-942 (1775)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 78.5¢	$123.09	$130	+$6.91	42% 894-1210 (2104)
ohioism	Upavg 68.8¢	$114.03	$124.71	+$10.68	47% 2471-2739 (5210)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Down

Invested

$8,843

Value

—

PnL

$-7.8K

Record

55%

530-425 (955)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$12.1

Record

43%

364-479 (843)

machine-earning

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$61.28

Record

45%

649-799 (1448)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,262.48

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$2.57

Record

47%

1193-1322 (2515)

soswald1

Invested

$950

Value

$948.08

PnL

+$0.23

Record

52%

3909-3625 (7534)

almach

Invested

$487.13

Value

$632.3

PnL

+$145.18

Record

51%

1687-1592 (3279)

Bonereaper

Invested

$732.51

Value

$573.24

PnL

-$159.28

Record

59%

1174-824 (1998)

asdcaxz

Invested

$563.11

Value

$568.28

PnL

+$53.66

Record

50%

4644-4696 (9340)

ply-pm0

Invested

$501.72

Value

$510.53

PnL

+$8.81

Record

35%

837-1572 (2409)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$584.2

Value

$498.18

PnL

+$10.52

Record

54%

4282-3627 (7909)

stepahead

Invested

$521.97

Value

$491.21

PnL

-$30.75

Record

55%

4634-3736 (8370)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$536.46

Value

$466.32

PnL

-$70.14

Record

44%

853-1071 (1924)

blue.birds

Invested

$514.08

Value

$461.21

PnL

+$15.81

Record

52%

5211-4882 (10093)

GoodFallen

Invested

$359.9

Value

$372.88

PnL

+$12.97

Record

46%

894-1068 (1962)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$318.46

Value

$346

PnL

+$27.54

Record

51%

2574-2433 (5007)

bosona

Invested

$295.08

Value

$347.98

PnL

+$52.9

Record

51%

4946-4701 (9647)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$311.18

Value

$263.08

PnL

-$4.3

Record

49%

3651-3756 (7407)

gansinimen

Invested

$261.87

Value

$235.56

PnL

-$26.31

Record

52%

477-445 (922)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$231.96

Value

$227.35

PnL

-$4.61

Record

51%

901-876 (1777)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$190.29

Value

$223.17

PnL

+$34.68

Record

54%

4688-4063 (8751)

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$181.19

Value

$202.42

PnL

+$21.23

Record

62%

4692-2855 (7547)

mo-money

Invested

$153.7

Value

$204.29

PnL

+$50.59

Record

52%

1704-1576 (3280)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Invested

$162.54

Value

$157.5

PnL

-$5.04

Record

47%

833-942 (1775)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$123.09

Value

$130

PnL

+$6.91

Record

42%

894-1210 (2104)

ohioism

Invested

$114.03

Value

$124.71

PnL

+$10.68

Record

47%

2471-2739 (5210)

Smart Money Signal

45 of 60 top traders (75%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x2fc0d051...5446a0

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794770400

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Down — $0

$-7.8K

arcsine-barrister

Up — $5.0K

-$12.1

machine-earning

Up — $3.5K

-$61.28

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.3K

+$2.57

soswald1

Up — $948.08

+$0.23

almach

Up — $632.3

+$145.18

Bonereaper

Up — $573.24

-$159.28

asdcaxz

Up — $568.28

+$53.66

ply-pm0

Up — $510.53

+$8.81

ByteBadger92

Up — $498.18

+$10.52

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