Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
58
Down 75%
1 arb excluded
$24.5K
-$810.55
Smart Money Signal
43 of 58 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%35 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.6K | $7.5K | +$56.43 | 55% 530-425 (955) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$17.17 | 43% 364-479 (843) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.8K | +$8.23 | 45% 649-799 (1448) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$2.42 | 53% 1627-1417 (3044) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $945 | +$5.95 | 52% 3909-3625 (7534) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 82.9¢ | $647.64 | $629.52 | -$18.11 | 47% 1193-1322 (2515) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.2¢ | $522.84 | $532.41 | +$9.57 | 98% 4560-95 (4655) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52.7¢ | $536.37 | $500 | -$11.69 | 54% 4282-3627 (7909) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 75.1¢ | $496.27 | $423.81 | -$58.65 | 59% 1174-824 (1998) |
AL almach | Downavg 98.5¢ | $383.69 | $389.34 | +$5.65 | 51% 1687-1592 (3279) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 52.5¢ | $227.08 | $292.99 | +$65.91 | 51% 2213-2109 (4322) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 70.7¢ | $302.01 | $281.12 | -$19.87 | 44% 853-1071 (1924) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 60¢ | $159.72 | $199 | +$39.28 | 49% 3651-3756 (7407) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 31.7¢ | $220.96 | — | -$220.96 | 55% 4634-3736 (8370) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 74.5¢ | $319.9 | $166.21 | -$32.36 | 51% 2574-2433 (5007) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 94.7¢ | $205.96 | $144.33 | -$61.63 | 52% 1704-1576 (3280) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 76.6¢ | $117.12 | $130.72 | +$13.6 | 52% 5211-4882 (10093) |
BO bosona | Downavg 92¢ | $105.74 | $114.94 | +$9.2 | 51% 4946-4701 (9647) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 98¢ | $119 | $100 | -$19 | 52% 477-445 (922) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $90.27 | $87.83 | -$2.44 | 34% 1253-2460 (3713) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877<$100 | Downavg 64.7¢ | $85.11 | $94.5 | +$9.39 | 48% 842-915 (1757) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 90.9¢ | $68.15 | $75 | +$6.85 | 70% 1855-804 (2659) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100 | Downavg 79.3¢ | $68.76 | $74.86 | +$6.09 | 59% 1117-778 (1895) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $81 | $70 | -$11 | 48% 2553-2774 (5327) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 84.4¢ | $59.78 | $65 | +$5.22 | 54% 1072-931 (2003) |
Invested
$8,575
Value
$7.5K
PnL
+$56.43
Record
55%
530-425 (955)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$17.17
Record
43%
364-479 (843)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$8.23
Record
45%
649-799 (1448)
Invested
$2,420.03
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$2.42
Record
53%
1627-1417 (3044)
Invested
$950
Value
$945
PnL
+$5.95
Record
52%
3909-3625 (7534)
Invested
$647.64
Value
$629.52
PnL
-$18.11
Record
47%
1193-1322 (2515)
Invested
$522.84
Value
$532.41
PnL
+$9.57
Record
98%
4560-95 (4655)
Invested
$536.37
Value
$500
PnL
-$11.69
Record
54%
4282-3627 (7909)
Invested
$496.27
Value
$423.81
PnL
-$58.65
Record
59%
1174-824 (1998)
Invested
$383.69
Value
$389.34
PnL
+$5.65
Record
51%
1687-1592 (3279)
Invested
$227.08
Value
$292.99
PnL
+$65.91
Record
51%
2213-2109 (4322)
Invested
$302.01
Value
$281.12
PnL
-$19.87
Record
44%
853-1071 (1924)
Invested
$159.72
Value
$199
PnL
+$39.28
Record
49%
3651-3756 (7407)
Invested
$220.96
Value
—
PnL
-$220.96
Record
55%
4634-3736 (8370)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$319.9
Value
$166.21
PnL
-$32.36
Record
51%
2574-2433 (5007)
Invested
$205.96
Value
$144.33
PnL
-$61.63
Record
52%
1704-1576 (3280)
Invested
$117.12
Value
$130.72
PnL
+$13.6
Record
52%
5211-4882 (10093)
Invested
$105.74
Value
$114.94
PnL
+$9.2
Record
51%
4946-4701 (9647)
Invested
$119
Value
$100
PnL
-$19
Record
52%
477-445 (922)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$90.27
Value
$87.83
PnL
-$2.44
Record
34%
1253-2460 (3713)
Invested
$85.11
Value
$94.5
PnL
+$9.39
Record
48%
842-915 (1757)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$68.15
Value
$75
PnL
+$6.85
Record
70%
1855-804 (2659)
Invested
$68.76
Value
$74.86
PnL
+$6.09
Record
59%
1117-778 (1895)
Invested
$81
Value
$70
PnL
-$11
Record
48%
2553-2774 (5327)
Invested
$59.78
Value
$65
PnL
+$5.22
Record
54%
1072-931 (2003)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $7.5K
arcsine-barrister
Down — $5.0K
machine-earning
Down — $3.8K
0x50f7
Down — $2.4K
soswald1
Down — $945
CrouchPredictions
Down — $629.52
hoodquant
Down — $532.41
ByteBadger92
Down — $500
Bonereaper
Down — $423.81
almach
Down — $389.34