Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 86%

Total Value

$27.2K

Combined PnL

$-6.8K

Smart Money Signal

50 of 58 top traders (86%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,308

Combined PnL$-8.3K

Up50 traders

Total Value$27.2K

Total Shares27,194

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Down — 14%Up — 86%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Downavg 50¢	$8.7K	—	$-8.2K	55% 530-425 (955)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$40.6	43% 364-479 (843)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$5.53	53% 1627-1417 (3044)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35	99% 967-7 (974)
MA machine-earning	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.4K	+$102.82	45% 649-799 (1448)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 93.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$74.53	42% 2132-2886 (5018)
BO bosona	Upavg 87.1¢	$883.06	$1.0K	+$118.87	51% 4946-4701 (9647)
ST stepahead	Upavg 50.6¢	$472.88	$847.25	+$374.37	55% 4634-3736 (8370)
AL almach	Upavg 87.5¢	$582.86	$666.09	+$83.23	51% 1687-1592 (3279)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 72.1¢	$611.94	$614.36	+$2.42	59% 1174-824 (1998)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 86.1¢	$484.09	$562.48	+$78.38	47% 1193-1322 (2515)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 88¢	$537.66	$537.42	-$0.24	51% 2574-2433 (5007)
0X 0x51A47545d367d39ef11f9b2aB70a458c2B4fAB73-1770660706727	Upavg 97¢	$500	$515.46	+$15.46	— 0-1 (1)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$516.76	$487.09	+$15.3	54% 4282-3627 (7909)
MO mo-money	Upavg 90.4¢	$622.02	$487.05	+$65.88	52% 1704-1576 (3280)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Upavg 58.7¢	$232.06	$358.88	+$126.82	47% 833-942 (1775)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 94.5¢	$261.41	$261.22	+$1.36	66% 4016-2029 (6045)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 89.5¢	$243.78	$244.27	+$0.49	44% 853-1071 (1924)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 98¢	$235.14	$240	+$4.86	52% 3078-2785 (5863)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 90.2¢	$214.19	$227.23	+$13.04	49% 3651-3756 (7407)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Upavg 53.2¢	$127.3	$226	+$98.7	51% 899-872 (1771)
machinelearned	Upavg 94¢	$171.36	$149.72	-$21.65	48% 1204-1329 (2533)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Upavg 52.2¢	$117.59	$163	+$45.41	51% 917-871 (1788)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 80¢	$150.55	$156.42	+$5.87	53% 1014-916 (1930)
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 94.4¢	$145.72	$154.3	+$8.58	40% 1760-2679 (4439)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Down

Invested

$8,715

Value

—

PnL

$-8.2K

Record

55%

530-425 (955)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$40.6

Record

43%

364-479 (843)

0x50f7

Invested

$4,732.25

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$5.53

Record

53%

1627-1417 (3044)

THG.

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35

Record

99%

967-7 (974)

machine-earning

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$102.82

Record

45%

649-799 (1448)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$1,137.47

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$74.53

Record

42%

2132-2886 (5018)

bosona

Invested

$883.06

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$118.87

Record

51%

4946-4701 (9647)

stepahead

Invested

$472.88

Value

$847.25

PnL

+$374.37

Record

55%

4634-3736 (8370)

almach

Invested

$582.86

Value

$666.09

PnL

+$83.23

Record

51%

1687-1592 (3279)

Bonereaper

Invested

$611.94

Value

$614.36

PnL

+$2.42

Record

59%

1174-824 (1998)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$484.09

Value

$562.48

PnL

+$78.38

Record

47%

1193-1322 (2515)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$537.66

Value

$537.42

PnL

-$0.24

Record

51%

2574-2433 (5007)

0x51A47545d367d39ef11f9b2aB70a458c2B4fAB73-1770660706727

Invested

$500

Value

$515.46

PnL

+$15.46

Record

—

0-1 (1)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$516.76

Value

$487.09

PnL

+$15.3

Record

54%

4282-3627 (7909)

mo-money

Invested

$622.02

Value

$487.05

PnL

+$65.88

Record

52%

1704-1576 (3280)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Invested

$232.06

Value

$358.88

PnL

+$126.82

Record

47%

833-942 (1775)

asdaefef

Invested

$261.41

Value

$261.22

PnL

+$1.36

Record

66%

4016-2029 (6045)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$243.78

Value

$244.27

PnL

+$0.49

Record

44%

853-1071 (1924)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$235.14

Value

$240

PnL

+$4.86

Record

52%

3078-2785 (5863)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$214.19

Value

$227.23

PnL

+$13.04

Record

49%

3651-3756 (7407)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Invested

$127.3

Value

$226

PnL

+$98.7

Record

51%

899-872 (1771)

machinelearned

Invested

$171.36

Value

$149.72

PnL

-$21.65

Record

48%

1204-1329 (2533)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Invested

$117.59

Value

$163

PnL

+$45.41

Record

51%

917-871 (1788)

wzbbb

Invested

$150.55

Value

$156.42

PnL

+$5.87

Record

53%

1014-916 (1930)

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$145.72

Value

$154.3

PnL

+$8.58

Record

40%

1760-2679 (4439)

Smart Money Signal

50 of 58 top traders (86%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x4d8805ab...48a23a

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794769800

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Down — $0

$-8.2K

arcsine-barrister

Up — $5.0K

+$40.6

0x50f7

Up — $4.7K

+$5.53

THG.

Up — $3.5K

+$35

machine-earning

Up — $3.4K

+$102.82

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $1.2K

+$74.53

bosona

Up — $1.0K

+$118.87

stepahead

Up — $847.25

+$374.37

almach

Up — $666.09

+$83.23

Bonereaper

Up — $614.36

+$2.42

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