Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET

Resolved Up. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 82%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.8K

Combined PnL

$551.39

Smart Money Signal

47 of 58 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up47 traders

Total Value$28.8K

Total Shares28,814

Combined PnL+$720.94

Down11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares493

Combined PnL-$169.54

Up — 81%Down — 19%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.6K	$7.2K	+$43.19	55% 530-425 (955)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	+$35.4	43% 364-479 (843)
TH THG.	Upavg 98.8¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$41.78	99% 967-7 (974)
MA machine-earning	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.4K	-$82.86	45% 649-799 (1448)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 84.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$46.99	47% 1193-1322 (2515)
BO bosona	Upavg 75.1¢	$973.74	$1.3K	+$322.83	51% 4946-4701 (9647)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$950	$950	+$3.1	52% 3909-3625 (7534)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$475	$950	+$475
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$470	—	-$471.9
MO mo-money	Upavg 80.5¢	$804.98	$999.98	+$195	52% 1704-1576 (3280)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 78¢	$808.4	$787.64	-$20.76	59% 1174-824 (1998)
ST stepahead	Upavg 71.1¢	$710	$732.39	+$22.4	55% 4634-3736 (8370)
AL almach	Upavg 81.2¢	$426.25	$525	+$98.75	51% 1687-1592 (3279)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 55.1¢	$609.16	$494.92	+$1.54	54% 4282-3627 (7909)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 86.6¢	$381.3	$390.18	+$8.88	50% 4644-4696 (9340)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 81.8¢	$368.47	$317.91	-$50.56	44% 853-1071 (1924)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 78.2¢	$268.53	$300	+$31.47	35% 837-1572 (2409)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 74¢	$213.1	$238.99	+$25.89	51% 901-876 (1777)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 83.5¢	$185.98	$199.98	+$14	52% 477-445 (922)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 79.5¢	$182.37	$173.33	-$9.04	52% 5211-4882 (10093)
AL Alpharo28	Upavg 72.6¢	$261.99	$171.91	-$66.68	58% 482-353 (835)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Upavg 80.4¢	$167.75	$171	+$3.24	47% 833-942 (1775)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 80.7¢	$323.84	$160	-$23.21	51% 2574-2433 (5007)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 78.8¢	$179.84	$136.76	+$4.31	53% 1014-916 (1930)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 81.5¢	$157.49	$116.32	-$41.17	46% 894-1068 (1962)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Upavg 76.5¢	$96.39	$126	+$29.61	48% 842-915 (1757)
machinelearned	Upavg 71.2¢	$82.41	$115.71	+$33.3	48% 1204-1329 (2533)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,604

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$43.19

Record

55%

530-425 (955)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$35.4

Record

43%

364-479 (843)

THG.

Invested

$3,458.22

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$41.78

Record

99%

967-7 (974)

machine-earning

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$82.86

Record

45%

649-799 (1448)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,358.71

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$46.99

Record

47%

1193-1322 (2515)

bosona

Invested

$973.74

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$322.83

Record

51%

4946-4701 (9647)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

+$3.1

Record

52%

3909-3625 (7534)

Both legs:

Up$47550¢+$475

Down$47050¢-$471.9

mo-money

Invested

$804.98

Value

$999.98

PnL

+$195

Record

52%

1704-1576 (3280)

Bonereaper

Invested

$808.4

Value

$787.64

PnL

-$20.76

Record

59%

1174-824 (1998)

stepahead

Invested

$710

Value

$732.39

PnL

+$22.4

Record

55%

4634-3736 (8370)

almach

Invested

$426.25

Value

$525

PnL

+$98.75

Record

51%

1687-1592 (3279)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$609.16

Value

$494.92

PnL

+$1.54

Record

54%

4282-3627 (7909)

asdcaxz

Invested

$381.3

Value

$390.18

PnL

+$8.88

Record

50%

4644-4696 (9340)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$368.47

Value

$317.91

PnL

-$50.56

Record

44%

853-1071 (1924)

ply-pm0

Invested

$268.53

Value

$300

PnL

+$31.47

Record

35%

837-1572 (2409)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$213.1

Value

$238.99

PnL

+$25.89

Record

51%

901-876 (1777)

gansinimen

Invested

$185.98

Value

$199.98

PnL

+$14

Record

52%

477-445 (922)

blue.birds

Invested

$182.37

Value

$173.33

PnL

-$9.04

Record

52%

5211-4882 (10093)

Alpharo28

Invested

$261.99

Value

$171.91

PnL

-$66.68

Record

58%

482-353 (835)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Invested

$167.75

Value

$171

PnL

+$3.24

Record

47%

833-942 (1775)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$323.84

Value

$160

PnL

-$23.21

Record

51%

2574-2433 (5007)

wzbbb

Invested

$179.84

Value

$136.76

PnL

+$4.31

Record

53%

1014-916 (1930)

GoodFallen

Invested

$157.49

Value

$116.32

PnL

-$41.17

Record

46%

894-1068 (1962)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Invested

$96.39

Value

$126

PnL

+$29.61

Record

48%

842-915 (1757)

machinelearned

Invested

$82.41

Value

$115.71

PnL

+$33.3

Record

48%

1204-1329 (2533)

Smart Money Signal

47 of 58 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x893e44ec...8a46fd

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794769500

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $7.2K

+$43.19

arcsine-barrister

Up — $4.9K

+$35.4

THG.

Up — $3.5K

+$41.78

machine-earning

Up — $3.4K

-$82.86

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.4K

+$46.99

bosona

Up — $1.3K

+$322.83

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$3.1

mo-money

Up — $999.98

+$195

Bonereaper

Up — $787.64

-$20.76

stepahead

Up — $732.39

+$22.4

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