Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET
Resolved Down. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
64
Down 44%
$15.7K
$-12.6K
Smart Money Signal
29 of 64 top traders (45%)35 hold an outcome priced under 50%35 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-7.3K | 55% 530-425 (955) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.8K | +$358.35 | 43% 364-479 (843) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.9K | +$424.2 | 45% 649-799 (1448) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 99¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$25.01 | 51% 2213-2109 (4322) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 59.4¢ | $1.4K | — | $-1.4K | 59% 1174-824 (1998) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 40.8¢ | $911.15 | — | -$911.15 | 47% 1193-1322 (2515) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Upavg 62.8¢ | $683.55 | — | -$666.26 | 50% 4644-4696 (9340) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Upavg 65.8¢ | $464.13 | — | -$464.13 | 52% 5211-4882 (10093) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 46.5¢ | $469.8 | — | -$441.85 | 44% 853-1071 (1924) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 51¢ | $450.74 | $499.99 | +$49.26 | 52% 477-445 (922) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 51.3¢ | $627.43 | — | -$486.33 | 54% 4282-3627 (7909) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 47¢ | $388.05 | $426.01 | +$47.56 | 55% 4634-3736 (8370) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 63.4¢ | $441.33 | $401.67 | -$37.15 | 35% 837-1572 (2409) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 70.6¢ | $1.5K | $379.23 | +$155.17 | 52% 1704-1576 (3280) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Upavg 64.7¢ | $414.05 | — | -$414.05 | 53% 1014-916 (1930) |
AL almach | Downavg 41.1¢ | $266.7 | $649.09 | +$382.39 | 51% 1687-1592 (3279) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 47.4¢ | $296.49 | — | -$177.5 | 51% 2574-2433 (5007) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 51.2¢ | $161.7 | $195.27 | +$33.57 | 47% 833-942 (1775) |
 OhioAICTR | Upavg 50.7¢ | $239.71 | — | -$203.96 | 50% 888-875 (1763) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 41.5¢ | $90.64 | $189.99 | +$99.35 | 48% 2576-2827 (5403) |
BO bosona | Downavg 44¢ | $220 | $500 | +$280 | 51% 4946-4701 (9647) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 61.4¢ | $195.84 | $180 | -$15.84 | 54% 4688-4063 (8751) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 62.2¢ | $128.74 | $174.8 | +$46.06 | 48% 842-915 (1757) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 64.1¢ | $141.24 | $143.14 | +$1.9 | 30% 602-1375 (1977) |
PE peepeepoopoo24CTR<$100 | Upavg 37.6¢ | $86.49 | — | -$86.49 | 49% 950-986 (1936) |
Invested
$8,788
Value
—
PnL
$-7.3K
Record
55%
530-425 (955)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$358.35
Record
43%
364-479 (843)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$424.2
Record
45%
649-799 (1448)
Invested
$2,475.77
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$25.01
Record
51%
2213-2109 (4322)
Invested
$1,437.1
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
59%
1174-824 (1998)
Invested
$911.15
Value
—
PnL
-$911.15
Record
47%
1193-1322 (2515)
Invested
$683.55
Value
—
PnL
-$666.26
Record
50%
4644-4696 (9340)
Invested
$464.13
Value
—
PnL
-$464.13
Record
52%
5211-4882 (10093)
Invested
$469.8
Value
—
PnL
-$441.85
Record
44%
853-1071 (1924)
Invested
$450.74
Value
$499.99
PnL
+$49.26
Record
52%
477-445 (922)
Invested
$627.43
Value
—
PnL
-$486.33
Record
54%
4282-3627 (7909)
Invested
$388.05
Value
$426.01
PnL
+$47.56
Record
55%
4634-3736 (8370)
Invested
$441.33
Value
$401.67
PnL
-$37.15
Record
35%
837-1572 (2409)
Invested
$1,520.62
Value
$379.23
PnL
+$155.17
Record
52%
1704-1576 (3280)
Invested
$414.05
Value
—
PnL
-$414.05
Record
53%
1014-916 (1930)
Invested
$266.7
Value
$649.09
PnL
+$382.39
Record
51%
1687-1592 (3279)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$296.49
Value
—
PnL
-$177.5
Record
51%
2574-2433 (5007)
Invested
$161.7
Value
$195.27
PnL
+$33.57
Record
47%
833-942 (1775)
OhioAICTRInvested
$239.71
Value
—
PnL
-$203.96
Record
50%
888-875 (1763)
Invested
$90.64
Value
$189.99
PnL
+$99.35
Record
48%
2576-2827 (5403)
Invested
$220
Value
$500
PnL
+$280
Record
51%
4946-4701 (9647)
FairValueMachineInvested
$195.84
Value
$180
PnL
-$15.84
Record
54%
4688-4063 (8751)
Invested
$128.74
Value
$174.8
PnL
+$46.06
Record
48%
842-915 (1757)
NIULAI4Invested
$141.24
Value
$143.14
PnL
+$1.9
Record
30%
602-1375 (1977)
Invested
$86.49
Value
—
PnL
-$86.49
Record
49%
950-986 (1936)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.8K
machine-earning
Down — $3.9K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $2.5K
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
asdcaxz
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
gansinimen
Down — $499.99