Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET

Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 73%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.4K

Combined PnL

$-11.7K

Smart Money Signal

Down

38 of 51 top traders (75%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares12,534

Combined PnL$-11.9K

Down38 traders

Total Value$11.5K

Total Shares11,536

Combined PnL+$131.87

Up — 25%Down — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$9.0K	—	$-7.1K	55% 530-425 (955)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.4K	43% 364-479 (843)
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.6K	+$82.99	45% 649-799 (1448)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.8K	$3.6K	+$1.9K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.8K	—	$-1.8K
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 75.2¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$46.8	47% 1193-1322 (2515)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 80.6¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$11.95	35% 837-1572 (2409)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 78.6¢	$879.65	$870.11	-$9.55	52% 5211-4882 (10093)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 69.9¢	$1.0K	$752.52	-$186.85	59% 1174-824 (1998)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 81.2¢	$793.48	$709.95	-$35.03	50% 4644-4696 (9340)
BO bosona	Downavg 82.9¢	$677.57	$724.45	+$46.87	51% 4946-4701 (9647)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 55.4¢	$668.45	$491.76	+$14.72	54% 4282-3627 (7909)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.4¢	$272.61	$491.76	+$258.26
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.9¢	$220.94	—	-$243.53
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 73¢	$346.89	$475.19	+$128.29	53% 1014-916 (1930)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 74.9¢	$472.14	$476.77	+$4.63	46% 894-1068 (1962)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 79.6¢	$438.19	$419.91	-$18.28	44% 853-1071 (1924)
machinelearned	Downavg 75.9¢	$365.25	$433.48	+$68.23	48% 1204-1329 (2533)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 77¢	$374.41	$350.12	-$24.3	52% 477-445 (922)
ST stepahead	Downavg 78.2¢	$371.08	$349.49	-$21.59	55% 4634-3736 (8370)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 64.5¢	$217.73	$243.54	+$25.81	51% 901-876 (1777)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.5¢	$157.09	$243.54	+$86.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.2¢	$60.64	—	-$60.64
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Downavg 82.4¢	$223.7	$225.54	+$1.83	47% 833-942 (1775)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 69.7¢	$233.25	$220	-$12.24	51% 2574-2433 (5007)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Downavg 82.1¢	$205.52	$166.5	-$39.02	48% 842-915 (1757)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Downavg 77.5¢	$105.24	$104.5	-$0.74	34% 1253-2460 (3713)
└ Up leg	Upavg 9¢	$24.27	—	-$24.27
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.5¢	$80.97	$104.5	+$23.53
OhioAIARB<$100	Downavg 54.5¢	$153.04	$142	-$11.04	50% 888-875 (1763)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.5¢	$77.34	$142	+$64.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.4¢	$75.71	—	-$75.71
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 61.9¢	$141.7	$132.16	-$9.54	49% 950-986 (1936)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 87.1¢	$128	$139.3	+$11.65	43% 2435-3165 (5600)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 30.2¢	$153.91	$114.43	-$39.48	54% 4688-4063 (8751)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.3¢	$67.82	$114.43	+$46.61
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.2¢	$86.09	—	-$86.09

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,963

Value

—

PnL

$-7.1K

Record

55%

530-425 (955)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.4K

Record

43%

364-479 (843)

machine-earningARB<$100

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$82.99

Record

45%

649-799 (1448)

Both legs:

Down$1,776.2750¢+$1.9K

Up$1,778.7650¢$-1.8K

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$2,273.59

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$46.8

Record

47%

1193-1322 (2515)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$1,674.38

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$11.95

Record

35%

837-1572 (2409)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$879.65

Value

$870.11

PnL

-$9.55

Record

52%

5211-4882 (10093)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,015.27

Value

$752.52

PnL

-$186.85

Record

59%

1174-824 (1998)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$793.48

Value

$709.95

PnL

-$35.03

Record

50%

4644-4696 (9340)

bosona

Down

Invested

$677.57

Value

$724.45

PnL

+$46.87

Record

51%

4946-4701 (9647)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$668.45

Value

$491.76

PnL

+$14.72

Record

54%

4282-3627 (7909)

Both legs:

Down$272.6155.4¢+$258.26

Up$220.9443.9¢-$243.53

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$346.89

Value

$475.19

PnL

+$128.29

Record

53%

1014-916 (1930)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$472.14

Value

$476.77

PnL

+$4.63

Record

46%

894-1068 (1962)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$438.19

Value

$419.91

PnL

-$18.28

Record

44%

853-1071 (1924)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$365.25

Value

$433.48

PnL

+$68.23

Record

48%

1204-1329 (2533)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$374.41

Value

$350.12

PnL

-$24.3

Record

52%

477-445 (922)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$371.08

Value

$349.49

PnL

-$21.59

Record

55%

4634-3736 (8370)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$217.73

Value

$243.54

PnL

+$25.81

Record

51%

901-876 (1777)

Both legs:

Down$157.0964.5¢+$86.45

Up$60.6428.2¢-$60.64

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Down

Invested

$223.7

Value

$225.54

PnL

+$1.83

Record

47%

833-942 (1775)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$233.25

Value

$220

PnL

-$12.24

Record

51%

2574-2433 (5007)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Down

Invested

$205.52

Value

$166.5

PnL

-$39.02

Record

48%

842-915 (1757)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$105.24

Value

$104.5

PnL

-$0.74

Record

34%

1253-2460 (3713)

Both legs:

Up$24.279¢-$24.27

Down$80.9777.5¢+$23.53

OhioAIARB<$100

Down

Invested

$153.04

Value

$142

PnL

-$11.04

Record

50%

888-875 (1763)

Both legs:

Down$77.3454.5¢+$64.66

Up$75.7144.4¢-$75.71

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$141.7

Value

$132.16

PnL

-$9.54

Record

49%

950-986 (1936)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$128

Value

$139.3

PnL

+$11.65

Record

43%

2435-3165 (5600)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$153.91

Value

$114.43

PnL

-$39.48

Record

54%

4688-4063 (8751)

Both legs:

Down$67.8259.3¢+$46.61

Up$86.0930.2¢-$86.09

Smart Money Signal

Down

38 of 51 top traders (75%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x487c5e2d...e2fd70

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794768600

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $0

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

machine-earning

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Down — $2.3K

+$46.8

ply-pm0

Down — $1.7K

+$11.95

blue.birds

Down — $870.11

-$9.55

Bonereaper

Down — $752.52

-$186.85

asdcaxz

Down — $709.95

-$35.03

bosona

Down — $724.45

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded