Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
62
Up 63%
2 arb excluded
$28.8K
$-2.5K
Smart Money Signal
39 of 62 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | $7.4K | +$30.77 | 55% 530-425 (955) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | +$98.22 | 43% 364-479 (843) |
MA machine-earningARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.7K | +$66.83 | 45% 649-799 (1448) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $1.9K | $3.7K | +$1.9K | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $1.9K | — | $-1.9K | |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 967-7 (974) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 54.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$47.34 | 47% 1193-1322 (2515) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 46¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | 59% 1174-824 (1998) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 81.6¢ | $970.1 | $1.0K | +$37.61 | 50% 4644-4696 (9340) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$864.85 | 52% 3909-3625 (7534) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 68.5¢ | $644.57 | $698.51 | +$53.94 | 52% 5211-4882 (10093) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 61.8¢ | $708.32 | $686.78 | -$21.54 | 44% 853-1071 (1924) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 51.5¢ | $577.44 | $499.99 | -$1.95 | 54% 4282-3627 (7909) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 59¢ | $588.59 | $488.27 | -$74.3 | 52% 477-445 (922) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 68.7¢ | $417.84 | $489.5 | +$71.66 | 55% 4634-3736 (8370) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 56.6¢ | $458.1 | $465.61 | +$7.5 | 53% 1014-916 (1930) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 75.4¢ | $484.57 | $407.22 | -$28.25 | 35% 837-1572 (2409) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 66.3¢ | $456.76 | $356.08 | -$100.68 | 46% 894-1068 (1962) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 56.1¢ | $295.17 | $326.15 | +$30.98 | 54% 4688-4063 (8751) |
AL almach | Upavg 22.5¢ | $114.2 | $265.03 | +$150.83 | 51% 1687-1592 (3279) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 78.7¢ | $231.98 | $255.68 | +$23.71 | 51% 917-871 (1788) |
 OhioAI | Upavg 59.8¢ | $218.47 | $254.01 | +$35.54 | 50% 888-875 (1763) |
BO bosona | Upavg 76.7¢ | $186.32 | $188.04 | +$1.72 | 51% 4946-4701 (9647) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Upavg 79.6¢ | $161.51 | $181.26 | +$19.75 | 50% 900-893 (1793) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 54.8¢ | $237.99 | $176.18 | +$31.18 | 51% 2574-2433 (5007) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 82¢ | $235.01 | $158.49 | -$76.52 | 48% 1204-1329 (2533) |
SH Sharky6999 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $152.59 | $152.74 | +$0.15 | 88% 152-20 (172) |
Invested
$8,596
Value
$7.4K
PnL
+$30.77
Record
55%
530-425 (955)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$98.22
Record
43%
364-479 (843)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$66.83
Record
45%
649-799 (1448)
Both legs:
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
967-7 (974)
Invested
$1,054.85
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$47.34
Record
47%
1193-1322 (2515)
Invested
$1,183.17
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
59%
1174-824 (1998)
Invested
$970.1
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$37.61
Record
50%
4644-4696 (9340)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$864.85
Record
52%
3909-3625 (7534)
Invested
$644.57
Value
$698.51
PnL
+$53.94
Record
52%
5211-4882 (10093)
Invested
$708.32
Value
$686.78
PnL
-$21.54
Record
44%
853-1071 (1924)
Invested
$577.44
Value
$499.99
PnL
-$1.95
Record
54%
4282-3627 (7909)
Invested
$588.59
Value
$488.27
PnL
-$74.3
Record
52%
477-445 (922)
Invested
$417.84
Value
$489.5
PnL
+$71.66
Record
55%
4634-3736 (8370)
Invested
$458.1
Value
$465.61
PnL
+$7.5
Record
53%
1014-916 (1930)
Invested
$484.57
Value
$407.22
PnL
-$28.25
Record
35%
837-1572 (2409)
Invested
$456.76
Value
$356.08
PnL
-$100.68
Record
46%
894-1068 (1962)
FairValueMachineInvested
$295.17
Value
$326.15
PnL
+$30.98
Record
54%
4688-4063 (8751)
Invested
$114.2
Value
$265.03
PnL
+$150.83
Record
51%
1687-1592 (3279)
Invested
$231.98
Value
$255.68
PnL
+$23.71
Record
51%
917-871 (1788)
OhioAIInvested
$218.47
Value
$254.01
PnL
+$35.54
Record
50%
888-875 (1763)
Invested
$186.32
Value
$188.04
PnL
+$1.72
Record
51%
4946-4701 (9647)
Invested
$161.51
Value
$181.26
PnL
+$19.75
Record
50%
900-893 (1793)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$237.99
Value
$176.18
PnL
+$31.18
Record
51%
2574-2433 (5007)
machinelearnedInvested
$235.01
Value
$158.49
PnL
-$76.52
Record
48%
1204-1329 (2533)
Invested
$152.59
Value
$152.74
PnL
+$0.15
Record
88%
152-20 (172)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $7.4K
arcsine-barrister
Up — $4.9K
machine-earning
ARBArbitrage — excluded
THG.
Up — $3.5K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.1K
Bonereaper
CTRDown — $0
asdcaxz
Up — $1.0K
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
blue.birds
Up — $698.51
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $686.78