Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 63%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.4K

Combined PnL

$-8.3K

Smart Money Signal

Down

40 of 69 top traders (58%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed29 hold an outcome priced under 50%38 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up29 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares10,911

Combined PnL$-10.0K

Down40 traders

Total Value$17.9K

Total Shares17,919

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Up — 42%Down — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.7K	—	$-7.5K	55% 530-425 (955)
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$163.2	43% 364-479 (843)
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.7K	-$18.77	45% 649-799 (1448)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.9K	$3.7K	+$1.8K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.8K	—	$-1.8K
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35	99% 967-7 (974)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 51.1¢	$878.31	$1.0K	+$129.18	47% 1193-1322 (2515)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 52.5¢	$861.57	$952.59	+$91.02	59% 1174-824 (1998)
SO soswald1	Downavg 50¢	$950	$945	+$22.6	52% 3909-3625 (7534)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 46¢	$673.26	$764.67	+$91.41	44% 853-1071 (1924)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 65.3¢	$733.23	$725.22	-$3.51	50% 4644-4696 (9340)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97.5¢	$611.25	$626.8	+$15.55	98% 4560-95 (4655)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 38.6¢	$645.36	—	-$645.36	35% 837-1572 (2409)
ST stepahead	Downavg 50.2¢	$554.3	$576.21	+$21.9	55% 4634-3736 (8370)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 52.2¢	$600.66	—	-$498.49	54% 4282-3627 (7909)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 52.8¢	$538.84	$524.7	-$14.15	48% 1204-1329 (2533)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.8¢	$276.84	$524.7	+$247.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.5¢	$262	—	-$262
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 50.5¢	$659.41	$1.0K	+$340.59	51% 4946-4701 (9647)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$505	$1.0K	+$495
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.4¢	$154.41	—	-$154.41
GA gansinimenCTR	Upavg 51.4¢	$443.34	—	-$443.34	52% 477-445 (922)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 48.5¢	$341.3	$404.73	+$63.43	46% 894-1068 (1962)
AL almach	Downavg 69.6¢	$640.52	$406.06	+$265.54	51% 1687-1592 (3279)
MO mo-money	Downavg 48.9¢	$260.36	$532.01	+$271.65	52% 1704-1576 (3280)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Downavg 44.3¢	$183.75	$264.11	+$80.36	48% 842-915 (1757)
ohioism	Downavg 61.1¢	$223.54	$258.81	+$35.28	47% 2471-2739 (5210)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 48.9¢	$174.11	$227.26	+$96.46	53% 1014-916 (1930)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 39.2¢	$167.1	$241.3	+$74.2	52% 5211-4882 (10093)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 64.9¢	$171.74	$164.91	-$6.83	51% 2213-2109 (4322)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.9¢	$115.7	—	-$115.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 34¢	$56.04	$164.91	+$108.87
AS asdaefef	Downavg 78.5¢	$213.15	$175.66	-$37.49	66% 4016-2029 (6045)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,742

Value

—

PnL

$-7.5K

Record

55%

530-425 (955)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$163.2

Record

43%

364-479 (843)

machine-earningARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$18.77

Record

45%

649-799 (1448)

Both legs:

Down$1,853.6550¢+$1.8K

Up$1,837.9150¢$-1.8K

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35

Record

99%

967-7 (974)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$878.31

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$129.18

Record

47%

1193-1322 (2515)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$861.57

Value

$952.59

PnL

+$91.02

Record

59%

1174-824 (1998)

soswald1

Down

Invested

$950

Value

$945

PnL

+$22.6

Record

52%

3909-3625 (7534)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$673.26

Value

$764.67

PnL

+$91.41

Record

44%

853-1071 (1924)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$733.23

Value

$725.22

PnL

-$3.51

Record

50%

4644-4696 (9340)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$611.25

Value

$626.8

PnL

+$15.55

Record

98%

4560-95 (4655)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$645.36

Value

—

PnL

-$645.36

Record

35%

837-1572 (2409)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$554.3

Value

$576.21

PnL

+$21.9

Record

55%

4634-3736 (8370)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$600.66

Value

—

PnL

-$498.49

Record

54%

4282-3627 (7909)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$538.84

Value

$524.7

PnL

-$14.15

Record

48%

1204-1329 (2533)

Both legs:

Down$276.8452.8¢+$247.85

Up$26265.5¢-$262

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$659.41

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$340.59

Record

51%

4946-4701 (9647)

Both legs:

Down$50550.5¢+$495

Up$154.4175.4¢-$154.41

gansinimenCTR

Invested

$443.34

Value

—

PnL

-$443.34

Record

52%

477-445 (922)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$341.3

Value

$404.73

PnL

+$63.43

Record

46%

894-1068 (1962)

almach

Down

Invested

$640.52

Value

$406.06

PnL

+$265.54

Record

51%

1687-1592 (3279)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$260.36

Value

$532.01

PnL

+$271.65

Record

52%

1704-1576 (3280)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Down

Invested

$183.75

Value

$264.11

PnL

+$80.36

Record

48%

842-915 (1757)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$223.54

Value

$258.81

PnL

+$35.28

Record

47%

2471-2739 (5210)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$174.11

Value

$227.26

PnL

+$96.46

Record

53%

1014-916 (1930)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$167.1

Value

$241.3

PnL

+$74.2

Record

52%

5211-4882 (10093)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$171.74

Value

$164.91

PnL

-$6.83

Record

51%

2213-2109 (4322)

Both legs:

Up$115.764.9¢-$115.7

Down$56.0434¢+$108.87

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$213.15

Value

$175.66

PnL

-$37.49

Record

66%

4016-2029 (6045)

Smart Money Signal

Down

40 of 69 top traders (58%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed29 hold an outcome priced under 50%38 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc42e4d5d...efdad9

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794768000

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Up — $0

$-7.5K

arcsine-barrister

Down — $5.0K

+$163.2

machine-earning

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$18.77

THG.

Down — $3.5K

+$35

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.0K

+$129.18

Bonereaper

Down — $952.59

+$91.02

soswald1

Down — $945

+$22.6

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $764.67

+$91.41

asdcaxz

Down — $725.22

-$3.51

hoodquant

Down — $626.8

+$15.55

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