Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET

Resolved Up. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 68%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.9K

Combined PnL

$-8.7K

Smart Money Signal

40 of 59 top traders (68%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%36 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up40 traders

Total Value$18.3K

Total Shares18,293

Combined PnL+$310.09

Down19 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,759

Combined PnL$-9.0K

Up — 68%Down — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.5K	$7.5K	-$77.3	55% 519-424 (943)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.9K	43% 356-475 (831)
MA machine-earningCTR	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-3.7K	45% 642-794 (1436)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$32.86	99% 960-7 (967)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 64.8¢	$974.62	$935.74	-$38.88	59% 1168-817 (1985)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 61.7¢	$609.26	$577.93	-$31.32	47% 1183-1316 (2499)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 64.1¢	$571.88	$554.81	-$17.07	44% 847-1065 (1912)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98¢	$556.72	$568.08	+$11.36	98% 4530-94 (4624)
ST stepahead	Upavg 62.7¢	$504.31	$533.61	+$29.3	55% 4624-3730 (8354)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50.8¢	$580.52	$490.06	+$6.87	54% 4250-3596 (7846)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 71¢	$423.53	$441.64	+$18.11	45% 886-1064 (1950)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 64.4¢	$458.92	$365.33	+$65.17	35% 827-1570 (2397)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 69.3¢	$337.56	$352.1	+$28.39	50% 4615-4686 (9301)
machinelearned	Upavg 66.9¢	$339.48	$388.22	+$48.74	47% 1193-1328 (2521)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 71.3¢	$379	$345.48	+$64.48	52% 5200-4875 (10075)
BO bosona	Upavg 85.3¢	$275.81	$306.71	+$30.9	51% 4926-4695 (9621)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 67.7¢	$206.82	$227.14	+$65.15	53% 1011-907 (1918)
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 23¢	$213.77	$109.45	-$104.32	51% 1669-1583 (3252)
└ Down leg	Downavg 23¢	$119.93	—	-$119.93
└ Up leg	Upavg 85.7¢	$93.84	$109.45	+$15.61
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 63.1¢	$152.66	$130.25	-$22.41	54% 4682-4058 (8740)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.1¢	$82.25	$130.25	+$48
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.5¢	$70.41	—	-$70.41
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 73.9¢	$123.23	$107.55	-$15.68	52% 471-440 (911)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.9¢	$79.47	$107.55	+$28.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 29¢	$43.76	—	-$43.76
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 72.3¢	$89.91	$124.3	+$34.4	58% 5200-3842 (9042)
OhioAIARB<$100	Upavg 62.8¢	$109.63	$114	+$4.36	50% 879-872 (1751)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.8¢	$71.64	$114	+$42.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.3¢	$37.99	—	-$37.99
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 94.4¢	$162.19	$114.34	-$47.85	51% 2557-2416 (4973)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Upavg 72.3¢	$112.25	$115.2	+$2.96	48% 833-912 (1745)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 79.1¢	$107.26	$111.48	+$4.22	66% 3992-2014 (6006)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,503

Value

$7.5K

PnL

-$77.3

Record

55%

519-424 (943)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.9K

Record

43%

356-475 (831)

machine-earningCTR

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

45%

642-794 (1436)

THG.

Invested

$3,253.45

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$32.86

Record

99%

960-7 (967)

Bonereaper

Invested

$974.62

Value

$935.74

PnL

-$38.88

Record

59%

1168-817 (1985)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$609.26

Value

$577.93

PnL

-$31.32

Record

47%

1183-1316 (2499)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$571.88

Value

$554.81

PnL

-$17.07

Record

44%

847-1065 (1912)

hoodquant

Invested

$556.72

Value

$568.08

PnL

+$11.36

Record

98%

4530-94 (4624)

stepahead

Invested

$504.31

Value

$533.61

PnL

+$29.3

Record

55%

4624-3730 (8354)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$580.52

Value

$490.06

PnL

+$6.87

Record

54%

4250-3596 (7846)

GoodFallen

Invested

$423.53

Value

$441.64

PnL

+$18.11

Record

45%

886-1064 (1950)

ply-pm0

Invested

$458.92

Value

$365.33

PnL

+$65.17

Record

35%

827-1570 (2397)

asdcaxz

Invested

$337.56

Value

$352.1

PnL

+$28.39

Record

50%

4615-4686 (9301)

machinelearned

Invested

$339.48

Value

$388.22

PnL

+$48.74

Record

47%

1193-1328 (2521)

blue.birds

Invested

$379

Value

$345.48

PnL

+$64.48

Record

52%

5200-4875 (10075)

bosona

Invested

$275.81

Value

$306.71

PnL

+$30.9

Record

51%

4926-4695 (9621)

wzbbb

Invested

$206.82

Value

$227.14

PnL

+$65.15

Record

53%

1011-907 (1918)

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$213.77

Value

$109.45

PnL

-$104.32

Record

51%

1669-1583 (3252)

Both legs:

Down$119.9323¢-$119.93

Up$93.8485.7¢+$15.61

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$152.66

Value

$130.25

PnL

-$22.41

Record

54%

4682-4058 (8740)

Both legs:

Up$82.2563.1¢+$48

Down$70.4133.5¢-$70.41

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$123.23

Value

$107.55

PnL

-$15.68

Record

52%

471-440 (911)

Both legs:

Up$79.4773.9¢+$28.08

Down$43.7629¢-$43.76

Hcrystallash

Invested

$89.91

Value

$124.3

PnL

+$34.4

Record

58%

5200-3842 (9042)

OhioAIARB<$100

Invested

$109.63

Value

$114

PnL

+$4.36

Record

50%

879-872 (1751)

Both legs:

Up$71.6462.8¢+$42.35

Down$37.9932.3¢-$37.99

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$162.19

Value

$114.34

PnL

-$47.85

Record

51%

2557-2416 (4973)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Invested

$112.25

Value

$115.2

PnL

+$2.96

Record

48%

833-912 (1745)

asdaefef

Invested

$107.26

Value

$111.48

PnL

+$4.22

Record

66%

3992-2014 (6006)

Smart Money Signal

40 of 59 top traders (68%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%36 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb51baa07...f31ab0

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794767700

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $7.5K

arcsine-barrister

Down — $0

machine-earning

Down — $0

THG.

Up — $3.3K

+$32.86

Bonereaper

Up — $935.74

-$38.88

CrouchPredictions

Up — $577.93

-$31.32

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $554.81

-$17.07

hoodquant

Up — $568.08

+$11.36

stepahead

Up — $533.61

+$29.3

ByteBadger92

Up — $490.06

+$6.87

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