Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
53
Down 79%
2 arb excluded
$25.5K
$143.33
Smart Money Signal
42 of 53 top traders (79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.6K | $7.7K | +$5.52 | 55% 519-424 (943) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | +$22.06 | 43% 356-475 (831) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.8K | +$107.24 | 45% 642-794 (1436) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30.08 | 53% 1608-1411 (3019) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$16.42 | 70% 1846-795 (2641) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52.7¢ | $572.05 | $500.81 | +$6.29 | 54% 4250-3596 (7846) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 73.2¢ | $312.8 | $427.09 | +$114.29 | 47% 1193-1328 (2521) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 79.9¢ | $428.04 | $356.27 | -$71.77 | 47% 1183-1316 (2499) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 67.1¢ | $371.71 | $338.5 | -$33.21 | 59% 1168-817 (1985) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 77¢ | $364.33 | $352.08 | -$12.25 | 55% 4624-3730 (8354) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 86.6¢ | $228.12 | $235.69 | +$7.57 | 50% 4615-4686 (9301) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 70.9¢ | $154.03 | $204.99 | +$52.36 | 48% 2538-2754 (5292) |
 ohioism | Downavg 71.3¢ | $169.26 | $199.99 | +$30.73 | 47% 2455-2714 (5169) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 77.9¢ | $203.02 | $169.67 | -$33.35 | 52% 5200-4875 (10075) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 63.5¢ | $143.25 | $171.16 | +$37.81 | 53% 1011-907 (1918) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 35.9¢ | $240.83 | $125.64 | -$115.19 | 44% 847-1065 (1912) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 83.8¢ | $105.3 | $125.64 | +$20.34 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.9¢ | $135.53 | — | -$135.53 | |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 81.1¢ | $195.17 | $120 | -$71.68 | 45% 886-1064 (1950) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Upavg 26.5¢ | $110.47 | $64.52 | -$45.95 | 51% 1669-1583 (3252) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 26.5¢ | $63.37 | — | -$63.37 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 73¢ | $47.1 | $64.52 | +$17.42 | |
 OhioAI | Downavg 71.5¢ | $93.79 | $104.3 | +$10.5 | 50% 879-872 (1751) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 42.3¢ | $103.04 | — | -$103.04 | 51% 2557-2416 (4973) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 80.5¢ | $116.51 | $100 | +$8.36 | 35% 827-1570 (2397) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 76.6¢ | $59.53 | $76.46 | +$16.93 | 43% 2420-3146 (5566) |
PA Papeasy<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $58.53 | $75 | +$16.47 | 50% 3890-3832 (7722) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 87.5¢ | $62.66 | $67.01 | +$4.35 | 53% 1061-926 (1987) |
RO Rock.San<$100 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $66.9 | $66.97 | +$0.07 | 94% 168-10 (178) |
Invested
$8,648
Value
$7.7K
PnL
+$5.52
Record
55%
519-424 (943)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$22.06
Record
43%
356-475 (831)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$107.24
Record
45%
642-794 (1436)
Invested
$2,977.93
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30.08
Record
53%
1608-1411 (3019)
BoneOhioInvested
$1,625.44
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$16.42
Record
70%
1846-795 (2641)
Invested
$572.05
Value
$500.81
PnL
+$6.29
Record
54%
4250-3596 (7846)
machinelearnedInvested
$312.8
Value
$427.09
PnL
+$114.29
Record
47%
1193-1328 (2521)
Invested
$428.04
Value
$356.27
PnL
-$71.77
Record
47%
1183-1316 (2499)
Invested
$371.71
Value
$338.5
PnL
-$33.21
Record
59%
1168-817 (1985)
Invested
$364.33
Value
$352.08
PnL
-$12.25
Record
55%
4624-3730 (8354)
Invested
$228.12
Value
$235.69
PnL
+$7.57
Record
50%
4615-4686 (9301)
Invested
$154.03
Value
$204.99
PnL
+$52.36
Record
48%
2538-2754 (5292)
ohioismInvested
$169.26
Value
$199.99
PnL
+$30.73
Record
47%
2455-2714 (5169)
Invested
$203.02
Value
$169.67
PnL
-$33.35
Record
52%
5200-4875 (10075)
Invested
$143.25
Value
$171.16
PnL
+$37.81
Record
53%
1011-907 (1918)
Invested
$240.83
Value
$125.64
PnL
-$115.19
Record
44%
847-1065 (1912)
Both legs:
Invested
$195.17
Value
$120
PnL
-$71.68
Record
45%
886-1064 (1950)
Invested
$110.47
Value
$64.52
PnL
-$45.95
Record
51%
1669-1583 (3252)
Both legs:
OhioAIInvested
$93.79
Value
$104.3
PnL
+$10.5
Record
50%
879-872 (1751)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$103.04
Value
—
PnL
-$103.04
Record
51%
2557-2416 (4973)
Invested
$116.51
Value
$100
PnL
+$8.36
Record
35%
827-1570 (2397)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$59.53
Value
$76.46
PnL
+$16.93
Record
43%
2420-3146 (5566)
Invested
$58.53
Value
$75
PnL
+$16.47
Record
50%
3890-3832 (7722)
Invested
$62.66
Value
$67.01
PnL
+$4.35
Record
53%
1061-926 (1987)
Invested
$66.9
Value
$66.97
PnL
+$0.07
Record
94%
168-10 (178)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $7.7K
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.9K
machine-earning
Down — $3.8K
0x50f7
Down — $3.0K
BoneOhio
Down — $1.6K
ByteBadger92
Down — $500.81
machinelearned
Down — $427.09
CrouchPredictions
Down — $356.27
Bonereaper
Down — $338.5
stepahead
Down — $352.08