Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET

Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 72%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.0K

Combined PnL

$-11.4K

Smart Money Signal

42 of 59 top traders (71%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares13,276

Combined PnL$-12.5K

Up42 traders

Total Value$13.5K

Total Shares13,503

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Down — 29%Up — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Downavg 50¢	$8.9K	—	$-7.9K	55% 519-424 (943)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$12.17	43% 356-475 (831)
MA machine-earningCTR	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-3.8K	45% 642-794 (1436)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.6¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$17.94	98% 4530-94 (4624)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Upavg 98.7¢	$664.47	$673	+$8.53	65% 99-53 (152)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 48.2¢	$586.97	$635.17	+$48.21	47% 1183-1316 (2499)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 52.6¢	$482.12	$568.39	+$86.27	44% 847-1065 (1912)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50.1¢	$572.34	$492.5	+$4.33	54% 4250-3596 (7846)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 66.4¢	$412.95	$468.34	+$55.39	52% 5200-4875 (10075)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 62.2¢	$467.27	$449.98	-$17.29	59% 1168-817 (1985)
AL almach	Upavg 83.9¢	$497.58	$534.91	+$37.33	51% 1669-1583 (3252)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 69.8¢	$399.69	$400.56	+$0.87	35% 827-1570 (2397)
BO bosona	Upavg 52.3¢	$266.59	$509.28	+$242.69	51% 4926-4695 (9621)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 49.4¢	$244.17	$282.31	+$38.13	45% 886-1064 (1950)
ST stepahead	Upavg 50.8¢	$229.18	$249.64	+$20.46	55% 4624-3730 (8354)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 47¢	$181.17	$233.91	+$52.74	47% 1193-1328 (2521)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47¢	$109.94	$233.91	+$123.97
└ Down leg	Downavg 54¢	$71.23	—	-$71.23
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 42.6¢	$102.12	$179.98	+$77.86	43% 2420-3146 (5566)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 60.2¢	$120.98	$156.99	+$36.01	50% 4615-4686 (9301)
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 57¢	$60.2	$105.66	+$45.46	58% 5200-3842 (9042)
LI Little-big	Upavg 98¢	$137.26	$100	-$37.26	51% 1142-1077 (2219)
PB PBot-6	Upavg 49.5¢	$101.14	$204.27	+$103.14	50% 977-973 (1950)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 51.1¢	$61.54	$95.85	+$34.3	48% 2561-2807 (5368)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 44¢	$87.51	$198.88	+$111.37	51% 2193-2101 (4294)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 60.6¢	$86.08	$80.77	-$5.31	54% 4682-4058 (8740)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.6¢	$48.98	$80.77	+$31.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.1¢	$37.1	—	-$37.1
OhioAI	Upavg 56.2¢	$100.47	$82	+$4.53	50% 879-872 (1751)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Down

Invested

$8,937

Value

—

PnL

$-7.9K

Record

55%

519-424 (943)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$12.17

Record

43%

356-475 (831)

machine-earningCTR

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-3.8K

Record

45%

642-794 (1436)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,246.06

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$17.94

Record

98%

4530-94 (4624)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Invested

$664.47

Value

$673

PnL

+$8.53

Record

65%

99-53 (152)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$586.97

Value

$635.17

PnL

+$48.21

Record

47%

1183-1316 (2499)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$482.12

Value

$568.39

PnL

+$86.27

Record

44%

847-1065 (1912)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$572.34

Value

$492.5

PnL

+$4.33

Record

54%

4250-3596 (7846)

blue.birds

Invested

$412.95

Value

$468.34

PnL

+$55.39

Record

52%

5200-4875 (10075)

Bonereaper

Invested

$467.27

Value

$449.98

PnL

-$17.29

Record

59%

1168-817 (1985)

almach

Invested

$497.58

Value

$534.91

PnL

+$37.33

Record

51%

1669-1583 (3252)

ply-pm0

Invested

$399.69

Value

$400.56

PnL

+$0.87

Record

35%

827-1570 (2397)

bosona

Invested

$266.59

Value

$509.28

PnL

+$242.69

Record

51%

4926-4695 (9621)

GoodFallen

Invested

$244.17

Value

$282.31

PnL

+$38.13

Record

45%

886-1064 (1950)

stepahead

Invested

$229.18

Value

$249.64

PnL

+$20.46

Record

55%

4624-3730 (8354)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$181.17

Value

$233.91

PnL

+$52.74

Record

47%

1193-1328 (2521)

Both legs:

Up$109.9447¢+$123.97

Down$71.2354¢-$71.23

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$102.12

Value

$179.98

PnL

+$77.86

Record

43%

2420-3146 (5566)

asdcaxz

Invested

$120.98

Value

$156.99

PnL

+$36.01

Record

50%

4615-4686 (9301)

Hcrystallash

Invested

$60.2

Value

$105.66

PnL

+$45.46

Record

58%

5200-3842 (9042)

Little-big

Invested

$137.26

Value

$100

PnL

-$37.26

Record

51%

1142-1077 (2219)

PBot-6

Invested

$101.14

Value

$204.27

PnL

+$103.14

Record

50%

977-973 (1950)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$61.54

Value

$95.85

PnL

+$34.3

Record

48%

2561-2807 (5368)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$87.51

Value

$198.88

PnL

+$111.37

Record

51%

2193-2101 (4294)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$86.08

Value

$80.77

PnL

-$5.31

Record

54%

4682-4058 (8740)

Both legs:

Up$48.9860.6¢+$31.79

Down$37.137.1¢-$37.1

OhioAI

Invested

$100.47

Value

$82

PnL

+$4.53

Record

50%

879-872 (1751)

Smart Money Signal

42 of 59 top traders (71%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa74c4440...85b671

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794766800

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Down — $0

$-7.9K

arcsine-barrister

Up — $5.0K

+$12.17

machine-earning

CTR

Down — $0

$-3.8K

hoodquant

Up — $1.3K

+$17.94

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Up — $673

+$8.53

CrouchPredictions

Up — $635.17

+$48.21

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $568.39

+$86.27

ByteBadger92

Up — $492.5

+$4.33

blue.birds

Up — $468.34

+$55.39

Bonereaper

Up — $449.98

-$17.29

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