Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET

Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 62%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Signal

Down

36 of 58 top traders (62%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down36 traders

Total Value$21.6K

Total Shares21,612

Combined PnL+$586.8

Up22 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,407

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Down — 62%Up — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 50¢	$8.8K	$7.6K	-$45.35	55% 519-424 (943)
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$12.4	43% 356-475 (831)
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.6K	-$13.74	45% 642-794 (1436)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.8K	$3.6K	+$1.8K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.7K	—	$-1.8K
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 58.3¢	$990.7	$1.1K	+$178.99	59% 1168-817 (1985)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$950	$899.53	-$9.47	52% 3882-3606 (7488)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$449.76	$899.53	+$456.83
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$465	—	-$466.3
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 58.6¢	$469.99	$802.07	+$332.08	51% 2193-2101 (4294)
BO bosona	Downavg 77.7¢	$712.67	$647.42	-$62.55	51% 4926-4695 (9621)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 58¢	$613.04	$651.56	+$38.53	52% 5200-4875 (10075)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 76.3¢	$611.84	$552.5	-$47.13	50% 4615-4686 (9301)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 36.6¢	$529.31	—	-$529.31	47% 1183-1316 (2499)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.6¢	$549.36	$492.93	+$3.95	54% 4250-3596 (7846)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 82.7¢	$505.83	$442.83	-$63	52% 471-440 (911)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 72.2¢	$468	$432.81	-$4.89	35% 827-1570 (2397)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 62.5¢	$356.16	$421.09	+$98.58	53% 1011-907 (1918)
MO mo-money	Downavg 87.7¢	$325.93	$367.55	+$41.62	52% 1680-1572 (3252)
ohioism	Downavg 66¢	$244.25	$289.08	+$64.91	47% 2455-2714 (5169)
ST stepahead	Downavg 62.3¢	$308.08	$276.78	-$31.3	55% 4624-3730 (8354)
OhioAI	Downavg 59.3¢	$280.24	$268.79	-$11.45	50% 879-872 (1751)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 62.4¢	$308.92	$245.52	-$51.91	45% 886-1064 (1950)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 72.7¢	$265.88	$208.38	-$57.51	44% 847-1065 (1912)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.7¢	$151.53	$208.38	+$56.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.8¢	$114.36	—	-$114.36
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Downavg 59.9¢	$152.25	$193.18	+$40.93	51% 911-865 (1776)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 45.4¢	$177.78	$175.73	-$2.04	51% 2557-2416 (4973)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.9¢	$84.18	$175.73	+$91.56
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.4¢	$93.6	—	-$93.6
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$170.28	$172	+$1.72	98% 4530-94 (4624)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 83.6¢	$205.39	$173.81	-$31.58	66% 3992-2014 (6006)
AL almach	Downavg 69.1¢	$125.76	$150.58	+$38.84	51% 1669-1583 (3252)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down

Invested

$8,775

Value

$7.6K

PnL

-$45.35

Record

55%

519-424 (943)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$12.4

Record

43%

356-475 (831)

machine-earningARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$13.74

Record

45%

642-794 (1436)

Both legs:

Down$1,816.2150¢+$1.8K

Up$1,727.3350¢$-1.8K

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$990.7

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$178.99

Record

59%

1168-817 (1985)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$950

Value

$899.53

PnL

-$9.47

Record

52%

3882-3606 (7488)

Both legs:

Down$449.7650¢+$456.83

Up$46550¢-$466.3

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$469.99

Value

$802.07

PnL

+$332.08

Record

51%

2193-2101 (4294)

bosona

Down

Invested

$712.67

Value

$647.42

PnL

-$62.55

Record

51%

4926-4695 (9621)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$613.04

Value

$651.56

PnL

+$38.53

Record

52%

5200-4875 (10075)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$611.84

Value

$552.5

PnL

-$47.13

Record

50%

4615-4686 (9301)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$529.31

Value

—

PnL

-$529.31

Record

47%

1183-1316 (2499)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$549.36

Value

$492.93

PnL

+$3.95

Record

54%

4250-3596 (7846)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$505.83

Value

$442.83

PnL

-$63

Record

52%

471-440 (911)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$468

Value

$432.81

PnL

-$4.89

Record

35%

827-1570 (2397)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$356.16

Value

$421.09

PnL

+$98.58

Record

53%

1011-907 (1918)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$325.93

Value

$367.55

PnL

+$41.62

Record

52%

1680-1572 (3252)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$244.25

Value

$289.08

PnL

+$64.91

Record

47%

2455-2714 (5169)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$308.08

Value

$276.78

PnL

-$31.3

Record

55%

4624-3730 (8354)

OhioAI

Down

Invested

$280.24

Value

$268.79

PnL

-$11.45

Record

50%

879-872 (1751)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$308.92

Value

$245.52

PnL

-$51.91

Record

45%

886-1064 (1950)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$265.88

Value

$208.38

PnL

-$57.51

Record

44%

847-1065 (1912)

Both legs:

Down$151.5372.7¢+$56.85

Up$114.3628.8¢-$114.36

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down

Invested

$152.25

Value

$193.18

PnL

+$40.93

Record

51%

911-865 (1776)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$177.78

Value

$175.73

PnL

-$2.04

Record

51%

2557-2416 (4973)

Both legs:

Down$84.1847.9¢+$91.56

Up$93.645.4¢-$93.6

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$170.28

Value

$172

PnL

+$1.72

Record

98%

4530-94 (4624)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$205.39

Value

$173.81

PnL

-$31.58

Record

66%

3992-2014 (6006)

almach

Down

Invested

$125.76

Value

$150.58

PnL

+$38.84

Record

51%

1669-1583 (3252)

Smart Money Signal

Down

36 of 58 top traders (62%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xf27904d0...0c3e05

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794765900

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down — $7.6K

-$45.35

arcsine-barrister

Down — $5.0K

+$12.4

machine-earning

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$13.74

Bonereaper

Down — $1.1K

+$178.99

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$9.47

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $802.07

+$332.08

bosona

Down — $647.42

-$62.55

blue.birds

Down — $651.56

+$38.53

asdcaxz

Down — $552.5

CrouchPredictions

Up — $0