Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET
Resolved Up. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
55
Up 64%
5 arb excluded
$17.6K
$-9.3K
Smart Money Signal
35 of 55 top traders (64%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.7K | $8.0K | -$1.56 | 55% 519-424 (943) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 43% 356-475 (831) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.4K | 45% 642-794 (1436) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$29.88 | 99% 960-7 (967) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$11.6 | 52% 3882-3606 (7488) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $475 | $950 | +$475 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $465 | — | -$463.4 | |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 56.6¢ | $796.24 | $896.97 | +$106.19 | 59% 1168-817 (1985) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.4¢ | $911.8 | $927 | +$15.2 | 98% 4530-94 (4624) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 39.9¢ | $581.81 | — | -$581.81 | 47% 1183-1316 (2499) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50.3¢ | $569.93 | $494.07 | -$4.29 | 54% 4250-3596 (7846) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 61.6¢ | $409.07 | $365.15 | -$40.44 | 44% 847-1065 (1912) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 81.3¢ | $375.08 | $372.51 | -$2.57 | 52% 5200-4875 (10075) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 72.6¢ | $325.36 | $311.09 | -$14.27 | 50% 4615-4686 (9301) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 45.2¢ | $247.79 | — | -$247.79 | 51% 2557-2416 (4973) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 57.7¢ | $229.15 | $227.85 | +$20.33 | 35% 827-1570 (2397) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 57.4¢ | $238.92 | $219.44 | -$14.98 | 45% 886-1064 (1950) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 46.9¢ | $189.16 | $209.89 | +$20.74 | 55% 4624-3730 (8354) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 57.7¢ | $104.03 | $140.06 | +$40.53 | 54% 4682-4058 (8740) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Downavg 18.1¢ | $125.27 | $59.41 | -$65.86 | 52% 1680-1572 (3252) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 18.1¢ | $103.88 | — | -$103.88 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36¢ | $21.39 | $59.41 | +$38.02 | |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 80.7¢ | $116.56 | $109.38 | -$3.91 | 66% 3992-2014 (6006) |
 OhioAI | Upavg 55.8¢ | $92.37 | $110.02 | +$17.66 | 50% 879-872 (1751) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 67.5¢ | $238.63 | — | -$238.63 | 47% 1193-1328 (2521) |
 ohioism | Upavg 52.6¢ | $76.86 | $105.13 | +$28.27 | 47% 2455-2714 (5169) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 60.6¢ | $142.1 | $98.93 | -$27.57 | 53% 1011-907 (1918) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 55.1¢ | $86.07 | $146.73 | +$60.66 | 42% 889-1205 (2094) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100 | Downavg 47.4¢ | $84.89 | $81.5 | -$3.39 | 50% 893-889 (1782) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51¢ | $41.55 | $81.5 | +$39.95 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.4¢ | $43.34 | — | -$43.34 |
Invested
$8,651
Value
$8.0K
PnL
-$1.56
Record
55%
519-424 (943)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
43%
356-475 (831)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.4K
Record
45%
642-794 (1436)
Invested
$2,957.85
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$29.88
Record
99%
960-7 (967)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$11.6
Record
52%
3882-3606 (7488)
Both legs:
Invested
$796.24
Value
$896.97
PnL
+$106.19
Record
59%
1168-817 (1985)
Invested
$911.8
Value
$927
PnL
+$15.2
Record
98%
4530-94 (4624)
Invested
$581.81
Value
—
PnL
-$581.81
Record
47%
1183-1316 (2499)
Invested
$569.93
Value
$494.07
PnL
-$4.29
Record
54%
4250-3596 (7846)
Invested
$409.07
Value
$365.15
PnL
-$40.44
Record
44%
847-1065 (1912)
Invested
$375.08
Value
$372.51
PnL
-$2.57
Record
52%
5200-4875 (10075)
Invested
$325.36
Value
$311.09
PnL
-$14.27
Record
50%
4615-4686 (9301)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$247.79
Value
—
PnL
-$247.79
Record
51%
2557-2416 (4973)
Invested
$229.15
Value
$227.85
PnL
+$20.33
Record
35%
827-1570 (2397)
Invested
$238.92
Value
$219.44
PnL
-$14.98
Record
45%
886-1064 (1950)
Invested
$189.16
Value
$209.89
PnL
+$20.74
Record
55%
4624-3730 (8354)
FairValueMachineInvested
$104.03
Value
$140.06
PnL
+$40.53
Record
54%
4682-4058 (8740)
Invested
$125.27
Value
$59.41
PnL
-$65.86
Record
52%
1680-1572 (3252)
Both legs:
Invested
$116.56
Value
$109.38
PnL
-$3.91
Record
66%
3992-2014 (6006)
OhioAIInvested
$92.37
Value
$110.02
PnL
+$17.66
Record
50%
879-872 (1751)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$238.63
Value
—
PnL
-$238.63
Record
47%
1193-1328 (2521)
ohioismInvested
$76.86
Value
$105.13
PnL
+$28.27
Record
47%
2455-2714 (5169)
Invested
$142.1
Value
$98.93
PnL
-$27.57
Record
53%
1011-907 (1918)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$86.07
Value
$146.73
PnL
+$60.66
Record
42%
889-1205 (2094)
Invested
$84.89
Value
$81.5
PnL
-$3.39
Record
50%
893-889 (1782)
Both legs:
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $8.0K
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.0K
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Bonereaper
Up — $896.97
hoodquant
Up — $927
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
Up — $494.07
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $365.15