Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
65
Down 81%
1 arb excluded
$31.5K
$-1.1K
Smart Money Signal
51 of 65 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $9.0K | $6.9K | -$19.69 | 55% 519-424 (943) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | +$70.76 | 43% 356-475 (831) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.5K | -$0.09 | 45% 642-794 (1436) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 960-7 (967) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 71¢ | $950.93 | $1.0K | +$88.53 | 59% 1168-817 (1985) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 80.5¢ | $1.0K | $967.23 | -$12.93 | 52% 5200-4875 (10075) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 86.8¢ | $1.0K | $960.29 | -$82.6 | 47% 1183-1316 (2499) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 91.1¢ | $982.23 | $920.55 | -$53.98 | 35% 827-1570 (2397) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.7¢ | $911.56 | $923.26 | +$11.7 | 98% 4530-94 (4624) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$878.45 | 52% 3882-3606 (7488) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 79.2¢ | $835.35 | $799.72 | -$17.21 | 50% 4615-4686 (9301) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 72.9¢ | $628.1 | $628.39 | +$0.3 | 44% 847-1065 (1912) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 78.2¢ | $522.06 | $538.03 | +$15.97 | 55% 4624-3730 (8354) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 86.1¢ | $610.17 | $517.21 | -$60.57 | 52% 471-440 (911) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.1¢ | $558.38 | $483.73 | +$5.7 | 54% 4250-3596 (7846) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 96.1¢ | $511.09 | $418.55 | -$92.54 | 30% 594-1371 (1965) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 78.4¢ | $335.13 | $427.43 | +$92.29 | 52% 1680-1572 (3252) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 73.8¢ | $366.53 | $407.4 | +$40.87 | 47% 1193-1328 (2521) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 79.2¢ | $296.17 | $333.47 | +$37.3 | 51% 895-864 (1759) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 72.6¢ | $360.37 | $252.69 | -$107.68 | 45% 886-1064 (1950) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 64.2¢ | $375.6 | $232.51 | +$11.28 | 51% 2557-2416 (4973) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Downavg 63.2¢ | $143.11 | $226.54 | +$83.42 | 50% 893-889 (1782) |
 ohioism | Downavg 89.5¢ | $156.83 | $175.25 | +$18.43 | 47% 2455-2714 (5169) |
 OhioAI | Downavg 62.7¢ | $132.38 | $168.04 | +$62.79 | 50% 879-872 (1751) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 63.9¢ | $149.81 | $181.03 | +$31.22 | 53% 1011-907 (1918) |
Invested
$8,972
Value
$6.9K
PnL
-$19.69
Record
55%
519-424 (943)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$70.76
Record
43%
356-475 (831)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.5K
PnL
-$0.09
Record
45%
642-794 (1436)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
960-7 (967)
Invested
$950.93
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$88.53
Record
59%
1168-817 (1985)
Invested
$1,029.17
Value
$967.23
PnL
-$12.93
Record
52%
5200-4875 (10075)
Invested
$1,042.89
Value
$960.29
PnL
-$82.6
Record
47%
1183-1316 (2499)
Invested
$982.23
Value
$920.55
PnL
-$53.98
Record
35%
827-1570 (2397)
Invested
$911.56
Value
$923.26
PnL
+$11.7
Record
98%
4530-94 (4624)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$878.45
Record
52%
3882-3606 (7488)
Invested
$835.35
Value
$799.72
PnL
-$17.21
Record
50%
4615-4686 (9301)
Invested
$628.1
Value
$628.39
PnL
+$0.3
Record
44%
847-1065 (1912)
Invested
$522.06
Value
$538.03
PnL
+$15.97
Record
55%
4624-3730 (8354)
Invested
$610.17
Value
$517.21
PnL
-$60.57
Record
52%
471-440 (911)
Invested
$558.38
Value
$483.73
PnL
+$5.7
Record
54%
4250-3596 (7846)
NIULAI4Invested
$511.09
Value
$418.55
PnL
-$92.54
Record
30%
594-1371 (1965)
Invested
$335.13
Value
$427.43
PnL
+$92.29
Record
52%
1680-1572 (3252)
machinelearnedInvested
$366.53
Value
$407.4
PnL
+$40.87
Record
47%
1193-1328 (2521)
Invested
$296.17
Value
$333.47
PnL
+$37.3
Record
51%
895-864 (1759)
Invested
$360.37
Value
$252.69
PnL
-$107.68
Record
45%
886-1064 (1950)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$375.6
Value
$232.51
PnL
+$11.28
Record
51%
2557-2416 (4973)
Invested
$143.11
Value
$226.54
PnL
+$83.42
Record
50%
893-889 (1782)
ohioismInvested
$156.83
Value
$175.25
PnL
+$18.43
Record
47%
2455-2714 (5169)
OhioAIInvested
$132.38
Value
$168.04
PnL
+$62.79
Record
50%
879-872 (1751)
Invested
$149.81
Value
$181.03
PnL
+$31.22
Record
53%
1011-907 (1918)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $6.9K
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.9K
machine-earning
Down — $3.5K
THG.
Down — $3.5K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.0K
blue.birds
Down — $967.23
CrouchPredictions
Down — $960.29
ply-pm0
Down — $920.55
hoodquant
Down — $923.26
soswald1
CTRUp — $0