Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
66
Down 62%
2 arb excluded
$20.9K
$-9.9K
Smart Money Signal
40 of 66 top traders (61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed26 hold an outcome priced under 50%40 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $9.0K | $7.4K | +$35.31 | 55% 519-424 (943) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 43% 356-475 (831) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.5K | 45% 642-794 (1436) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30.08 | 53% 1608-1411 (3019) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30 | 70% 1846-795 (2641) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.8¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$18.1 | 98% 4530-94 (4624) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$934 | 52% 3882-3606 (7488) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 78.2¢ | $655.54 | $833.5 | +$177.96 | 47% 1193-1328 (2521) |
AL almach | Downavg 94.3¢ | $1.3K | $679.97 | -$41.2 | 51% 1669-1583 (3252) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 55.2¢ | $613.14 | $507.23 | +$7.5 | 54% 4250-3596 (7846) |
BO bosona | Downavg 80¢ | $353.13 | $441.31 | +$88.17 | 51% 4926-4695 (9621) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 70.3¢ | $426.3 | $433.51 | +$7.22 | 51% 2557-2416 (4973) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 79.3¢ | $467.17 | $406 | -$61.17 | 44% 847-1065 (1912) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 61.6¢ | $419.7 | $399.84 | -$19.86 | 55% 4624-3730 (8354) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 98.8¢ | $326.29 | $328.9 | +$2.61 | 34% 1241-2451 (3692) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 37.6¢ | $307.69 | — | -$307.69 | 51% 2193-2101 (4294) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 28.6¢ | $459.35 | — | -$459.35 | 59% 1168-817 (1985) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 75.2¢ | $248.13 | $299.98 | +$54.85 | 52% 5200-4875 (10075) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 36¢ | $235.92 | $115.78 | -$120.14 | 47% 1183-1316 (2499) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36¢ | $170.09 | — | -$170.09 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.9¢ | $65.83 | $115.78 | +$49.95 | |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 65.9¢ | $127.35 | $161.19 | +$33.83 | 48% 2538-2754 (5292) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 80.5¢ | $126.96 | $157.73 | +$30.77 | 49% 2514-2591 (5105) |
RO Rock.San | Downavg 99.9¢ | $134.4 | $134.53 | +$0.13 | 94% 168-10 (178) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 82.3¢ | $147.82 | $90 | -$57.82 | 45% 886-1064 (1950) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 82.3¢ | $74.1 | $90 | +$15.9 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.3¢ | $73.72 | — | -$73.72 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 68.8¢ | $115.7 | $102 | -$13.7 | 49% 3629-3731 (7360) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 86¢ | $111.66 | $94.48 | -$17.18 | 51% 893-874 (1767) |
Invested
$8,981
Value
$7.4K
PnL
+$35.31
Record
55%
519-424 (943)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
43%
356-475 (831)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.5K
Record
45%
642-794 (1436)
Invested
$2,977.93
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30.08
Record
53%
1608-1411 (3019)
BoneOhioInvested
$2,970
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30
Record
70%
1846-795 (2641)
Invested
$1,554.89
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$18.1
Record
98%
4530-94 (4624)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$934
Record
52%
3882-3606 (7488)
machinelearnedInvested
$655.54
Value
$833.5
PnL
+$177.96
Record
47%
1193-1328 (2521)
Invested
$1,292.65
Value
$679.97
PnL
-$41.2
Record
51%
1669-1583 (3252)
Invested
$613.14
Value
$507.23
PnL
+$7.5
Record
54%
4250-3596 (7846)
Invested
$353.13
Value
$441.31
PnL
+$88.17
Record
51%
4926-4695 (9621)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$426.3
Value
$433.51
PnL
+$7.22
Record
51%
2557-2416 (4973)
Invested
$467.17
Value
$406
PnL
-$61.17
Record
44%
847-1065 (1912)
Invested
$419.7
Value
$399.84
PnL
-$19.86
Record
55%
4624-3730 (8354)
pspspsps5Invested
$326.29
Value
$328.9
PnL
+$2.61
Record
34%
1241-2451 (3692)
Invested
$307.69
Value
—
PnL
-$307.69
Record
51%
2193-2101 (4294)
Invested
$459.35
Value
—
PnL
-$459.35
Record
59%
1168-817 (1985)
Invested
$248.13
Value
$299.98
PnL
+$54.85
Record
52%
5200-4875 (10075)
Invested
$235.92
Value
$115.78
PnL
-$120.14
Record
47%
1183-1316 (2499)
Both legs:
Invested
$127.35
Value
$161.19
PnL
+$33.83
Record
48%
2538-2754 (5292)
Invested
$126.96
Value
$157.73
PnL
+$30.77
Record
49%
2514-2591 (5105)
Invested
$134.4
Value
$134.53
PnL
+$0.13
Record
94%
168-10 (178)
Invested
$147.82
Value
$90
PnL
-$57.82
Record
45%
886-1064 (1950)
Both legs:
Invested
$115.7
Value
$102
PnL
-$13.7
Record
49%
3629-3731 (7360)
Invested
$111.66
Value
$94.48
PnL
-$17.18
Record
51%
893-874 (1767)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $7.4K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
0x50f7
Down — $3.0K
BoneOhio
Down — $3.0K
hoodquant
Down — $1.6K
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
machinelearned
Down — $833.5
almach
Down — $679.97
ByteBadger92
Down — $507.23