Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET
51 of 58 top Polymarket traders hold Down (88%) · Down at 100¢ · $33K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Down
58
Down 88%
1 arb excluded
$33.4K
$703.61
68.3¢ → 100¢
+46% since entry · 51 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
51 of 58 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.9K | $8.1K | +$88.43 | 55% 516-419 (935) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$17.05 | 43% 353-468 (821) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.9K | +$77.47 | 45% 638-788 (1426) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | -$12.03 | 53% 1595-1405 (3000) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.1¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$21.31 | 98% 4498-92 (4590) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 92.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$55.77 | 52% 1673-1561 (3234) |
BO bosona | Downavg 90.3¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$24.53 | 51% 4911-4688 (9599) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 84.5¢ | $845 | $925 | +$80 | 47% 1188-1322 (2510) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Downavg 98.3¢ | $900.3 | $905.59 | +$11.63 | 42% 2086-2846 (4932) |
AL almach | Downavg 84.5¢ | $831.84 | $860.91 | +$29.07 | 51% 1661-1571 (3232) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 78.6¢ | $695.81 | $696.8 | +$0.99 | 59% 1161-811 (1972) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 86.9¢ | $516.42 | $593.99 | +$77.57 | 49% 2495-2563 (5058) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 66.9¢ | $489.61 | $560.56 | +$70.95 | 55% 4618-3720 (8338) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 79.3¢ | $461.7 | $539 | +$77.3 | 47% 1178-1305 (2483) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.2¢ | $543.13 | $505.02 | +$8.76 | 54% 4218-3562 (7780) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 87.2¢ | $375.35 | $373.36 | +$22.94 | 34% 822-1563 (2385) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 44.9¢ | $337.32 | $334.12 | -$3.2 | 51% 2181-2090 (4271) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 79.8¢ | $324.91 | $307.77 | -$17.13 | 51% 2540-2400 (4940) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 97¢ | $264.25 | $260.93 | -$3.32 | 34% 1232-2436 (3668) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 78.2¢ | $181.37 | $220.74 | +$39.37 | 52% 5189-4868 (10057) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 74¢ | $176.56 | $170.95 | -$5.61 | 51% 890-857 (1747) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 77¢ | $131.64 | $154.17 | +$22.52 | 46% 882-1056 (1938) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 36.8¢ | $298.28 | $137.37 | -$133.6 | 44% 841-1059 (1900) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 79.5¢ | $128.95 | $137.04 | +$8.08 | 44% 2407-3121 (5528) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 76.7¢ | $118.99 | $132.35 | +$13.36 | 49% 938-977 (1915) |
Invested
$8,859
Value
$8.1K
PnL
+$88.43
Record
55%
516-419 (935)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$17.05
Record
43%
353-468 (821)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$77.47
Record
45%
638-788 (1426)
Invested
$3,005
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$12.03
Record
53%
1595-1405 (3000)
Invested
$1,483.12
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$21.31
Record
98%
4498-92 (4590)
Invested
$1,403.87
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$55.77
Record
52%
1673-1561 (3234)
Invested
$1,024.36
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$24.53
Record
51%
4911-4688 (9599)
machinelearnedInvested
$845
Value
$925
PnL
+$80
Record
47%
1188-1322 (2510)
Invested
$900.3
Value
$905.59
PnL
+$11.63
Record
42%
2086-2846 (4932)
Invested
$831.84
Value
$860.91
PnL
+$29.07
Record
51%
1661-1571 (3232)
Invested
$695.81
Value
$696.8
PnL
+$0.99
Record
59%
1161-811 (1972)
Invested
$516.42
Value
$593.99
PnL
+$77.57
Record
49%
2495-2563 (5058)
Invested
$489.61
Value
$560.56
PnL
+$70.95
Record
55%
4618-3720 (8338)
Invested
$461.7
Value
$539
PnL
+$77.3
Record
47%
1178-1305 (2483)
Invested
$543.13
Value
$505.02
PnL
+$8.76
Record
54%
4218-3562 (7780)
Invested
$375.35
Value
$373.36
PnL
+$22.94
Record
34%
822-1563 (2385)
Invested
$337.32
Value
$334.12
PnL
-$3.2
Record
51%
2181-2090 (4271)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$324.91
Value
$307.77
PnL
-$17.13
Record
51%
2540-2400 (4940)
pspspsps5Invested
$264.25
Value
$260.93
PnL
-$3.32
Record
34%
1232-2436 (3668)
Invested
$181.37
Value
$220.74
PnL
+$39.37
Record
52%
5189-4868 (10057)
Invested
$176.56
Value
$170.95
PnL
-$5.61
Record
51%
890-857 (1747)
Invested
$131.64
Value
$154.17
PnL
+$22.52
Record
46%
882-1056 (1938)
Invested
$298.28
Value
$137.37
PnL
-$133.6
Record
44%
841-1059 (1900)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$128.95
Value
$137.04
PnL
+$8.08
Record
44%
2407-3121 (5528)
Invested
$118.99
Value
$132.35
PnL
+$13.36
Record
49%
938-977 (1915)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.1K
arcsine-barrister
Down — $5.0K
machine-earning
Down — $3.9K
0x50f7
Down — $3.0K
hoodquant
Down — $1.5K
mo-money
Down — $1.5K
bosona
Down — $1.0K
machinelearned
Down — $925
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Down — $905.59
almach
Down — $860.91