Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET
47 of 59 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 100¢ · $41K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Down
59
Down 80%
2 arb excluded
$41.1K
-$488.31
77¢ → 100¢
+30% since entry · 47 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
47 of 59 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.6¢ | $9.0K | $9.0K | +$31.58 | 53% 1595-1405 (3000) |
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $7.3K | +$21.6 | 55% 516-419 (935) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.7K | -$72.93 | 43% 353-468 (821) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$17.5 | 99% 955-7 (962) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.2K | -$115.33 | 45% 638-788 (1426) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97.9¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$26.1 | 98% 4498-92 (4590) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 99¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$14.62 | 51% 2181-2090 (4271) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 85.7¢ | $966.78 | $1.1K | +$88.21 | 47% 1188-1322 (2510) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $995.09 | $1.0K | +$5.03 | 70% 1831-785 (2616) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $942.72 | -$0.83 | 52% 3858-3579 (7437) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 95.8¢ | $795.65 | $661.13 | -$134.53 | 47% 1178-1305 (2483) |
AL almach | Downavg 94¢ | $583.23 | $580.71 | -$2.52 | 51% 1661-1571 (3232) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 94¢ | $585.84 | $564.76 | -$21.08 | 52% 1673-1561 (3234) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 72.9¢ | $559.71 | $543.36 | -$16.35 | 55% 4618-3720 (8338) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Downavg 99.7¢ | $539.46 | $540.75 | +$1.29 | 49% 1742-1781 (3523) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 54.5¢ | $575.03 | $493.51 | +$0.92 | 54% 4218-3562 (7780) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 30.6¢ | $690.41 | $464.29 | -$226.12 | 59% 1161-811 (1972) |
BO bosona | Downavg 92.9¢ | $290.67 | $298.88 | +$8.21 | 51% 4911-4688 (9599) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 87.9¢ | $293.88 | $291.4 | +$2.27 | 50% 4592-4670 (9262) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 72.7¢ | $267.72 | $287.02 | +$19.31 | 44% 841-1059 (1900) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 71.9¢ | $413.52 | $282.87 | -$2.75 | 51% 2540-2400 (4940) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 84.2¢ | $176.34 | $188.17 | +$11.84 | 34% 822-1563 (2385) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 84.2¢ | $135.82 | $155.22 | +$19.4 | 51% 903-861 (1764) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 91.3¢ | $131.83 | $135.04 | +$3.2 | 53% 1050-921 (1971) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 93.3¢ | $150.14 | $128.38 | -$21.76 | 52% 5189-4868 (10057) |
Invested
$8,969.94
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$31.58
Record
53%
1595-1405 (3000)
Invested
$8,772
Value
$7.3K
PnL
+$21.6
Record
55%
516-419 (935)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.7K
PnL
-$72.93
Record
43%
353-468 (821)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$17.5
Record
99%
955-7 (962)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.2K
PnL
-$115.33
Record
45%
638-788 (1426)
Invested
$1,547.98
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$26.1
Record
98%
4498-92 (4590)
Invested
$1,523.09
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$14.62
Record
51%
2181-2090 (4271)
machinelearnedInvested
$966.78
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$88.21
Record
47%
1188-1322 (2510)
BoneOhioInvested
$995.09
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$5.03
Record
70%
1831-785 (2616)
Invested
$950
Value
$942.72
PnL
-$0.83
Record
52%
3858-3579 (7437)
Invested
$795.65
Value
$661.13
PnL
-$134.53
Record
47%
1178-1305 (2483)
Invested
$583.23
Value
$580.71
PnL
-$2.52
Record
51%
1661-1571 (3232)
Invested
$585.84
Value
$564.76
PnL
-$21.08
Record
52%
1673-1561 (3234)
Invested
$559.71
Value
$543.36
PnL
-$16.35
Record
55%
4618-3720 (8338)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$539.46
Value
$540.75
PnL
+$1.29
Record
49%
1742-1781 (3523)
Invested
$575.03
Value
$493.51
PnL
+$0.92
Record
54%
4218-3562 (7780)
Invested
$690.41
Value
$464.29
PnL
-$226.12
Record
59%
1161-811 (1972)
Invested
$290.67
Value
$298.88
PnL
+$8.21
Record
51%
4911-4688 (9599)
Invested
$293.88
Value
$291.4
PnL
+$2.27
Record
50%
4592-4670 (9262)
Invested
$267.72
Value
$287.02
PnL
+$19.31
Record
44%
841-1059 (1900)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$413.52
Value
$282.87
PnL
-$2.75
Record
51%
2540-2400 (4940)
Invested
$176.34
Value
$188.17
PnL
+$11.84
Record
34%
822-1563 (2385)
Invested
$135.82
Value
$155.22
PnL
+$19.4
Record
51%
903-861 (1764)
Invested
$131.83
Value
$135.04
PnL
+$3.2
Record
53%
1050-921 (1971)
Invested
$150.14
Value
$128.38
PnL
-$21.76
Record
52%
5189-4868 (10057)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $9.0K
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $7.3K
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.7K
THG.
Down — $3.5K
machine-earning
Down — $3.2K
hoodquant
Down — $1.6K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $1.5K
machinelearned
Down — $1.1K
BoneOhio
Down — $1.0K
soswald1
Down — $942.72