Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 83%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$32.3K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Signal

49 of 59 top traders (83%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up49 traders

Total Value$31.4K

Total Shares31,377

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,000

Combined PnL-$367.05

Up — 83%Down — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.6K	$6.6K	+$53.47	55% 516-419 (935)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$238.05	43% 353-468 (821)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$34	99% 955-7 (962)
MA machine-earning	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.1K	+$185.21	45% 638-788 (1426)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 94.7¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$86.82	51% 2181-2090 (4271)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 65.7¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$75.45	59% 1161-811 (1972)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 68.6¢	$797.11	$1.2K	+$365.67	49% 2495-2563 (5058)
ST stepahead	Upavg 63.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$41.82	55% 4618-3720 (8338)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 80.3¢	$798.06	$784.25	-$13.81	52% 5189-4868 (10057)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 59.6¢	$595.86	$778.02	+$182.15	47% 1178-1305 (2483)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 69¢	$690.73	$649.66	+$49.97	34% 822-1563 (2385)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 64¢	$608.61	$592.02	-$16.59	44% 841-1059 (1900)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 52.2¢	$554.52	$495.9	+$7.23	54% 4218-3562 (7780)
BO bosona	Upavg 67.3¢	$382.47	$474.78	+$92.31	51% 4911-4688 (9599)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 71.4¢	$467.34	$440.88	-$24.46	50% 4592-4670 (9262)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 55.9¢	$274.89	$283.54	+$8.66	52% 1673-1561 (3234)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.9¢	$158.63	—	-$158.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 41¢	$116.25	$283.54	+$167.29
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 64.8¢	$293.85	$260.44	-$33.42	51% 2540-2400 (4940)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Upavg 61.5¢	$163.3	$264.57	+$101.27	51% 903-861 (1764)
LI Little-big	Upavg 55.4¢	$138.5	$250	+$111.5	51% 1133-1071 (2204)
AL almach	Upavg 56.7¢	$233.66	$222.63	-$11.04	51% 1661-1571 (3232)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 60¢	$216.3	$212.76	+$16.58	53% 1003-903 (1906)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 63.4¢	$271.83	$198.22	-$34.43	49% 3629-3730 (7359)
NIULAI4	Upavg 94.5¢	$202.29	$207.77	+$5.48	30% 590-1363 (1953)
machinelearned	Upavg 53.3¢	$170.18	$319.24	+$149.06	47% 1188-1322 (2510)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 69.2¢	$197.5	$189.98	-$7.52	52% 465-434 (899)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.2¢	$131.43	$189.98	+$58.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.8¢	$66.07	—	-$66.07

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,603

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$53.47

Record

55%

516-419 (935)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$238.05

Record

43%

353-468 (821)

THG.

Invested

$3,366.02

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$34

Record

99%

955-7 (962)

machine-earning

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$185.21

Record

45%

638-788 (1426)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$1,557.18

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$86.82

Record

51%

2181-2090 (4271)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,381.46

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$75.45

Record

59%

1161-811 (1972)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$797.11

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$365.67

Record

49%

2495-2563 (5058)

stepahead

Invested

$1,081.82

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$41.82

Record

55%

4618-3720 (8338)

blue.birds

Invested

$798.06

Value

$784.25

PnL

-$13.81

Record

52%

5189-4868 (10057)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$595.86

Value

$778.02

PnL

+$182.15

Record

47%

1178-1305 (2483)

ply-pm0

Invested

$690.73

Value

$649.66

PnL

+$49.97

Record

34%

822-1563 (2385)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$608.61

Value

$592.02

PnL

-$16.59

Record

44%

841-1059 (1900)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$554.52

Value

$495.9

PnL

+$7.23

Record

54%

4218-3562 (7780)

bosona

Invested

$382.47

Value

$474.78

PnL

+$92.31

Record

51%

4911-4688 (9599)

asdcaxz

Invested

$467.34

Value

$440.88

PnL

-$24.46

Record

50%

4592-4670 (9262)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$274.89

Value

$283.54

PnL

+$8.66

Record

52%

1673-1561 (3234)

Both legs:

Down$158.6355.9¢-$158.63

Up$116.2541¢+$167.29

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$293.85

Value

$260.44

PnL

-$33.42

Record

51%

2540-2400 (4940)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Invested

$163.3

Value

$264.57

PnL

+$101.27

Record

51%

903-861 (1764)

Little-big

Invested

$138.5

Value

$250

PnL

+$111.5

Record

51%

1133-1071 (2204)

almach

Invested

$233.66

Value

$222.63

PnL

-$11.04

Record

51%

1661-1571 (3232)

wzbbb

Invested

$216.3

Value

$212.76

PnL

+$16.58

Record

53%

1003-903 (1906)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$271.83

Value

$198.22

PnL

-$34.43

Record

49%

3629-3730 (7359)

NIULAI4

Invested

$202.29

Value

$207.77

PnL

+$5.48

Record

30%

590-1363 (1953)

machinelearned

Invested

$170.18

Value

$319.24

PnL

+$149.06

Record

47%

1188-1322 (2510)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$197.5

Value

$189.98

PnL

-$7.52

Record

52%

465-434 (899)

Both legs:

Up$131.4369.2¢+$58.55

Down$66.0733.8¢-$66.07

Smart Money Signal

49 of 59 top traders (83%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe573136a...91f173

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794763500

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $6.6K

+$53.47

arcsine-barrister

Up — $5.0K

+$238.05

THG.

Up — $3.4K

+$34

machine-earning

Up — $3.1K

+$185.21

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $1.6K

+$86.82

Bonereaper

Up — $1.4K

+$75.45

uninformedfloww

Up — $1.2K

+$365.67

stepahead

Up — $1.1K

+$41.82

blue.birds

Up — $784.25

-$13.81

CrouchPredictions

Up — $778.02

+$182.15

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