Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET
Resolved Up. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
55
Up 55%
7 arb excluded
$22.1K
$-7.0K
Smart Money Signal
30 of 55 top traders (55%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed25 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.9K | $7.3K | +$107.55 | 55% 516-419 (935) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | -$46.59 | 43% 353-468 (821) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.6K | 45% 638-788 (1426) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$21.35 | 99% 955-7 (962) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 38.5¢ | $763.99 | $1.2K | +$403.41 | 59% 1161-811 (1972) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 38.2¢ | $744.54 | — | -$744.54 | 47% 1178-1305 (2483) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Downavg 65.4¢ | $756.95 | — | -$756.95 | 50% 4592-4670 (9262) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 67.6¢ | $702.59 | — | -$702.59 | 44% 841-1059 (1900) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 55¢ | $626.26 | — | -$626.26 | 34% 822-1563 (2385) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 36.9¢ | $244.24 | $635.21 | +$390.97 | 52% 1673-1561 (3234) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Downavg 59.1¢ | $559.08 | — | -$559.08 | 49% 3629-3730 (7359) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 37.5¢ | $355.27 | $576 | +$245.58 | 46% 882-1056 (1938) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 54.1¢ | $551.65 | $550.76 | -$0.89 | 55% 4618-3720 (8338) |
BO bosonaCTR | Downavg 74.5¢ | $674.95 | — | -$674.95 | 51% 4911-4688 (9599) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 52.1¢ | $576.93 | $492.23 | +$6.56 | 54% 4218-3562 (7780) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.1¢ | $253.03 | — | -$239.1 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.8¢ | $240.29 | $492.23 | +$245.66 | |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Downavg 67.6¢ | $367.56 | — | -$367.56 | 52% 5189-4868 (10057) |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Downavg 57.5¢ | $357.32 | $342.93 | -$14.39 | 52% 465-434 (899) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.5¢ | $189.23 | — | -$189.23 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49¢ | $168.09 | $342.93 | +$174.84 | |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 42.4¢ | $270.65 | $310.32 | +$56.67 | 54% 4679-4049 (8728) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 32.7¢ | $97.4 | $298.03 | +$200.63 | 49% 2495-2563 (5058) |
AL almach | Upavg 46.9¢ | $135.73 | $277.78 | +$142.06 | 51% 1661-1571 (3232) |
 OhioAI | Upavg 36.1¢ | $171.83 | $224.42 | +$131.65 | 50% 873-866 (1739) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100 | Downavg 62.4¢ | $225.98 | $206.49 | -$19.49 | 42% 884-1198 (2082) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 62.4¢ | $146.74 | — | -$146.74 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 38.4¢ | $79.24 | $206.49 | +$127.25 | |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 69.3¢ | $231.53 | $217.11 | -$14.43 | 47% 825-928 (1753) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 54.4¢ | $182.66 | $184.46 | +$1.8 | 51% 2540-2400 (4940) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.4¢ | $108.25 | — | -$108.25 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 40.3¢ | $74.4 | $184.46 | +$110.05 | |
 G-Penis-Monster | Upavg 36.5¢ | $91.81 | $189.98 | +$98.17 | 44% 2407-3121 (5528) |
Invested
$8,868
Value
$7.3K
PnL
+$107.55
Record
55%
516-419 (935)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.9K
PnL
-$46.59
Record
43%
353-468 (821)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.6K
Record
45%
638-788 (1426)
Invested
$2,113.9
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$21.35
Record
99%
955-7 (962)
Invested
$763.99
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$403.41
Record
59%
1161-811 (1972)
Invested
$744.54
Value
—
PnL
-$744.54
Record
47%
1178-1305 (2483)
Invested
$756.95
Value
—
PnL
-$756.95
Record
50%
4592-4670 (9262)
Invested
$702.59
Value
—
PnL
-$702.59
Record
44%
841-1059 (1900)
Invested
$626.26
Value
—
PnL
-$626.26
Record
34%
822-1563 (2385)
Invested
$244.24
Value
$635.21
PnL
+$390.97
Record
52%
1673-1561 (3234)
Invested
$559.08
Value
—
PnL
-$559.08
Record
49%
3629-3730 (7359)
Invested
$355.27
Value
$576
PnL
+$245.58
Record
46%
882-1056 (1938)
Invested
$551.65
Value
$550.76
PnL
-$0.89
Record
55%
4618-3720 (8338)
Invested
$674.95
Value
—
PnL
-$674.95
Record
51%
4911-4688 (9599)
Invested
$576.93
Value
$492.23
PnL
+$6.56
Record
54%
4218-3562 (7780)
Both legs:
Invested
$367.56
Value
—
PnL
-$367.56
Record
52%
5189-4868 (10057)
Invested
$357.32
Value
$342.93
PnL
-$14.39
Record
52%
465-434 (899)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineInvested
$270.65
Value
$310.32
PnL
+$56.67
Record
54%
4679-4049 (8728)
Invested
$97.4
Value
$298.03
PnL
+$200.63
Record
49%
2495-2563 (5058)
Invested
$135.73
Value
$277.78
PnL
+$142.06
Record
51%
1661-1571 (3232)
OhioAIInvested
$171.83
Value
$224.42
PnL
+$131.65
Record
50%
873-866 (1739)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100Invested
$225.98
Value
$206.49
PnL
-$19.49
Record
42%
884-1198 (2082)
Both legs:
Invested
$231.53
Value
$217.11
PnL
-$14.43
Record
47%
825-928 (1753)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$182.66
Value
$184.46
PnL
+$1.8
Record
51%
2540-2400 (4940)
Both legs:
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$91.81
Value
$189.98
PnL
+$98.17
Record
44%
2407-3121 (5528)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $7.3K
arcsine-barrister
Up — $4.9K
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $2.1K
Bonereaper
Up — $1.2K
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
asdcaxz
CTRDown — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm0
CTRDown — $0
mo-money
Up — $635.21