Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET

Resolved Up. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 88%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$35.7K

Combined PnL

$2.4K

Smart Money Signal

53 of 60 top traders (88%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up53 traders

Total Value$35.0K

Total Shares35,022

Combined PnL+$2.6K

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares701

Combined PnL-$198.21

Up — 88%Down — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$9.0K	$7.7K	+$152.88	55% 516-419 (935)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$150.85	43% 353-468 (821)
MA machine-earning	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	+$197.99	45% 638-788 (1426)
TH THG.	Upavg 98.1¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$65.82	99% 955-7 (962)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 88.8¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$233.52	51% 2181-2090 (4271)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 76¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$82.63	59% 1161-811 (1972)
BO bosona	Upavg 69¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$445.07	51% 4911-4688 (9599)
AL almach	Upavg 78.4¢	$859.73	$1.0K	+$186.59	51% 1661-1571 (3232)
SO soswald1	Upavg 50¢	$950	$950	+$14.9	52% 3858-3579 (7437)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.8¢	$903.41	$914.8	+$11.39	98% 4498-92 (4590)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 81.4¢	$688.8	$846.51	+$157.71	49% 2495-2563 (5058)
machinelearned	Upavg 75.7¢	$575.5	$760.39	+$184.89	47% 1188-1322 (2510)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 68.7¢	$505.37	$641.2	+$135.83	47% 1178-1305 (2483)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 76¢	$640.11	$641.2	+$1.09	50% 4592-4670 (9262)
ST stepahead	Upavg 71.5¢	$572.4	$618.89	+$46.49	55% 4618-3720 (8338)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50.6¢	$528.46	$505.33	+$10.42	54% 4218-3562 (7780)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 73.3¢	$492.63	$448.46	-$41.47	44% 841-1059 (1900)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 69.7¢	$397.32	$353.12	-$44.2	53% 1003-903 (1906)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.7¢	$246.12	$353.12	+$107
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.7¢	$151.2	—	-$151.2
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 69.6¢	$304.29	$331.52	+$41.93	46% 882-1056 (1938)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 68.5¢	$319.05	$300.36	-$18.7	51% 2540-2400 (4940)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 67.8¢	$201.12	$279.5	+$78.38	34% 822-1563 (2385)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 73.7¢	$244.32	$259.63	+$15.31	52% 465-434 (899)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 71.8¢	$218.12	$258.55	+$40.43	52% 5189-4868 (10057)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 68.8¢	$109.97	$134.97	+$25	49% 938-977 (1915)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100	Upavg 75.1¢	$121.77	$119.43	-$2.34	47% 825-928 (1753)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.1¢	$89.72	$119.43	+$29.71
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.1¢	$32.05	—	-$32.05

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,966

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$152.88

Record

55%

516-419 (935)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$150.85

Record

43%

353-468 (821)

machine-earning

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$197.99

Record

45%

638-788 (1426)

THG.

Invested

$3,434.18

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$65.82

Record

99%

955-7 (962)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$1,848.35

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$233.52

Record

51%

2181-2090 (4271)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,478.55

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$82.63

Record

59%

1161-811 (1972)

bosona

Invested

$1,200.59

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$445.07

Record

51%

4911-4688 (9599)

almach

Invested

$859.73

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$186.59

Record

51%

1661-1571 (3232)

soswald1

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

+$14.9

Record

52%

3858-3579 (7437)

hoodquant

Invested

$903.41

Value

$914.8

PnL

+$11.39

Record

98%

4498-92 (4590)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$688.8

Value

$846.51

PnL

+$157.71

Record

49%

2495-2563 (5058)

machinelearned

Invested

$575.5

Value

$760.39

PnL

+$184.89

Record

47%

1188-1322 (2510)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$505.37

Value

$641.2

PnL

+$135.83

Record

47%

1178-1305 (2483)

asdcaxz

Invested

$640.11

Value

$641.2

PnL

+$1.09

Record

50%

4592-4670 (9262)

stepahead

Invested

$572.4

Value

$618.89

PnL

+$46.49

Record

55%

4618-3720 (8338)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$528.46

Value

$505.33

PnL

+$10.42

Record

54%

4218-3562 (7780)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$492.63

Value

$448.46

PnL

-$41.47

Record

44%

841-1059 (1900)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$397.32

Value

$353.12

PnL

-$44.2

Record

53%

1003-903 (1906)

Both legs:

Up$246.1269.7¢+$107

Down$151.234.7¢-$151.2

GoodFallen

Invested

$304.29

Value

$331.52

PnL

+$41.93

Record

46%

882-1056 (1938)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$319.05

Value

$300.36

PnL

-$18.7

Record

51%

2540-2400 (4940)

ply-pm0

Invested

$201.12

Value

$279.5

PnL

+$78.38

Record

34%

822-1563 (2385)

gansinimen

Invested

$244.32

Value

$259.63

PnL

+$15.31

Record

52%

465-434 (899)

blue.birds

Invested

$218.12

Value

$258.55

PnL

+$40.43

Record

52%

5189-4868 (10057)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$109.97

Value

$134.97

PnL

+$25

Record

49%

938-977 (1915)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100

Invested

$121.77

Value

$119.43

PnL

-$2.34

Record

47%

825-928 (1753)

Both legs:

Up$89.7275.1¢+$29.71

Down$32.0538.1¢-$32.05

Smart Money Signal

53 of 60 top traders (88%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xb93de2a7...8e9b9c

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794762900

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $7.7K

+$152.88

arcsine-barrister

Up — $5.0K

+$150.85

machine-earning

Up — $3.9K

+$197.99

THG.

Up — $3.5K

+$65.82

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $2.1K

+$233.52

Bonereaper

Up — $1.4K

-$82.63

bosona

Up — $1.2K

+$445.07

almach

Up — $1.0K

+$186.59

soswald1

Up — $950

+$14.9

hoodquant

Up — $914.8

+$11.39

Trade on Polymarket