Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 84% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 84%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.8K

Combined PnL

$-5.9K

Smart Money Signal

53 of 63 top traders (84%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares8,470

Combined PnL$-7.6K

Up53 traders

Total Value$24.6K

Total Shares24,561

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Down — 16%Up — 84%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Downavg 50¢	$8.9K	—	$-7.3K	55% 516-419 (935)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$78.78	43% 353-468 (821)
TH THG.	Upavg 95.6¢	$3.3K	$3.5K	+$153.27	99% 955-7 (962)
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.5K	+$43.33	45% 638-788 (1426)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.8K	$3.5K	+$1.8K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.3K	—	$-1.8K
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 94.9¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$83.78	51% 2181-2090 (4271)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 74.5¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$113.58	59% 1161-811 (1972)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 93.3¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$73.94	98% 4498-92 (4590)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 88.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$0.3	47% 1178-1305 (2483)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 70.8¢	$863.93	$953.56	+$89.62	44% 841-1059 (1900)
NIULAI4	Upavg 86.7¢	$738.69	$840.72	+$102.03	30% 590-1363 (1953)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 57.2¢	$379.2	$662.4	+$283.2	49% 2495-2563 (5058)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 80.9¢	$608.76	$636.08	+$27.31	52% 5189-4868 (10057)
machinelearned	Upavg 70.8¢	$569.54	$680.6	+$111.06	47% 1188-1322 (2510)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 72.6¢	$650.13	$615.3	-$34.84	52% 465-434 (899)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 70.1¢	$526.7	$585.43	+$84.83	46% 882-1056 (1938)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 85.8¢	$550.93	$576.38	+$25.45	50% 4592-4670 (9262)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 72.2¢	$455.38	$521.23	+$65.85	34% 822-1563 (2385)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.2¢	$538.38	$500	+$14.93	54% 4218-3562 (7780)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.6¢	$242.43	—	-$243.77
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.2¢	$250.95	$500	+$258.7
ST stepahead	Upavg 75.5¢	$394.4	$418.15	+$23.75	55% 4618-3720 (8338)
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 76.7¢	$381.28	$474.98	+$93.69	44% 2407-3121 (5528)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Upavg 79.6¢	$329.99	$380.22	+$50.23	51% 903-861 (1764)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Upavg 76.8¢	$263.08	$322.47	+$59.39	51% 890-857 (1747)
OhioAI	Upavg 66.2¢	$168.38	$213.6	+$76.42	50% 873-866 (1739)
BO bosona	Upavg 88.5¢	$198.46	$209.69	+$11.23	51% 4911-4688 (9599)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 83.1¢	$178.76	$179.68	+$7.71	51% 2540-2400 (4940)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Down

Invested

$8,851

Value

—

PnL

$-7.3K

Record

55%

516-419 (935)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$78.78

Record

43%

353-468 (821)

THG.

Invested

$3,346.73

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$153.27

Record

99%

955-7 (962)

machine-earningARB<$100

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$43.33

Record

45%

638-788 (1426)

Both legs:

Up$1,759.7550¢+$1.8K

Down$1,306.3250¢$-1.8K

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$1,568.22

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$83.78

Record

51%

2181-2090 (4271)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,463.58

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$113.58

Record

59%

1161-811 (1972)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,037.06

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$73.94

Record

98%

4498-92 (4590)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,055.23

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$0.3

Record

47%

1178-1305 (2483)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$863.93

Value

$953.56

PnL

+$89.62

Record

44%

841-1059 (1900)

NIULAI4

Invested

$738.69

Value

$840.72

PnL

+$102.03

Record

30%

590-1363 (1953)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$379.2

Value

$662.4

PnL

+$283.2

Record

49%

2495-2563 (5058)

blue.birds

Invested

$608.76

Value

$636.08

PnL

+$27.31

Record

52%

5189-4868 (10057)

machinelearned

Invested

$569.54

Value

$680.6

PnL

+$111.06

Record

47%

1188-1322 (2510)

gansinimen

Invested

$650.13

Value

$615.3

PnL

-$34.84

Record

52%

465-434 (899)

GoodFallen

Invested

$526.7

Value

$585.43

PnL

+$84.83

Record

46%

882-1056 (1938)

asdcaxz

Invested

$550.93

Value

$576.38

PnL

+$25.45

Record

50%

4592-4670 (9262)

ply-pm0

Invested

$455.38

Value

$521.23

PnL

+$65.85

Record

34%

822-1563 (2385)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$538.38

Value

$500

PnL

+$14.93

Record

54%

4218-3562 (7780)

Both legs:

Down$242.4349.6¢-$243.77

Up$250.9550.2¢+$258.7

stepahead

Invested

$394.4

Value

$418.15

PnL

+$23.75

Record

55%

4618-3720 (8338)

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$381.28

Value

$474.98

PnL

+$93.69

Record

44%

2407-3121 (5528)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Invested

$329.99

Value

$380.22

PnL

+$50.23

Record

51%

903-861 (1764)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Invested

$263.08

Value

$322.47

PnL

+$59.39

Record

51%

890-857 (1747)

OhioAI

Invested

$168.38

Value

$213.6

PnL

+$76.42

Record

50%

873-866 (1739)

bosona

Invested

$198.46

Value

$209.69

PnL

+$11.23

Record

51%

4911-4688 (9599)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$178.76

Value

$179.68

PnL

+$7.71

Record

51%

2540-2400 (4940)

Smart Money Signal

53 of 63 top traders (84%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x144dcc60...67859f

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794762600

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Down — $0

$-7.3K

arcsine-barrister

Up — $5.0K

+$78.78

THG.

Up — $3.5K

+$153.27

machine-earning

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$43.33

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $1.7K

+$83.78

Bonereaper

Up — $1.6K

+$113.58

hoodquant

Up — $1.1K

+$73.94

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.1K

-$0.3

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $953.56

+$89.62

NIULAI4

Up — $840.72

+$102.03

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