Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
Resolved Up. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
57
Up 72%
5 arb excluded
$24.4K
$-6.9K
Smart Money Signal
41 of 57 top traders (72%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-6.5K | 55% 516-419 (935) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | +$46.04 | 43% 353-468 (821) |
TH THG. | Upavg 98.4¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$57.63 | 99% 955-7 (962) |
MA machine-earningARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.4K | -$129.26 | 45% 638-788 (1426) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.8K | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $1.7K | $3.4K | +$1.7K | |
 machinelearned | Upavg 85.4¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$48.74 | 47% 1188-1322 (2510) |
BO bosona | Upavg 83.8¢ | $934.26 | $1.0K | +$71.35 | 51% 4911-4688 (9599) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $915.02 | -$6.94 | 52% 3858-3579 (7437) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 79.7¢ | $931.02 | $822.73 | -$105.26 | 59% 1161-811 (1972) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 80.7¢ | $866.78 | $796.93 | -$69.32 | 47% 1178-1305 (2483) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 84.8¢ | $763.87 | $792.5 | +$28.63 | 50% 4592-4670 (9262) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 76.1¢ | $831.12 | $749.99 | -$35.6 | 52% 5189-4868 (10057) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 75.9¢ | $737.75 | $735.5 | -$2.25 | 55% 4618-3720 (8338) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 72.5¢ | $735.18 | $712.64 | -$22.54 | 44% 841-1059 (1900) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 54.3¢ | $581.02 | $495.67 | -$2.74 | 54% 4218-3562 (7780) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Upavg 77.8¢ | $428.25 | $495.73 | +$67.48 | 50% 888-882 (1770) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 77.6¢ | $340.19 | $407.03 | +$66.85 | 51% 888-867 (1755) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 74.7¢ | $416.46 | $380.97 | -$35.49 | 46% 882-1056 (1938) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 73.8¢ | $325.85 | $369.21 | +$43.37 | 34% 822-1563 (2385) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 80.1¢ | $335.48 | $387.39 | +$51.91 | 30% 590-1363 (1953) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Upavg 87.8¢ | $286.6 | $251.95 | -$34.65 | 51% 1661-1571 (3232) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 26¢ | $65.41 | — | -$65.41 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 87.8¢ | $221.19 | $251.95 | +$30.76 | |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877CTR | Downavg 48.2¢ | $210.94 | — | -$210.94 | 48% 826-907 (1733) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Upavg 75.6¢ | $255.07 | $212.53 | -$42.54 | 51% 890-857 (1747) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 52.7¢ | $119.89 | $184.52 | +$92.45 | 62% 4631-2815 (7446) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 64.6¢ | $181.53 | $173.98 | +$4.33 | 51% 2540-2400 (4940) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Upavg 53.2¢ | $110.77 | $148.67 | +$37.9 | 49% 938-977 (1915) |
Invested
$8,821
Value
—
PnL
$-6.5K
Record
55%
516-419 (935)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$46.04
Record
43%
353-468 (821)
Invested
$3,442.37
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$57.63
Record
99%
955-7 (962)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.4K
PnL
-$129.26
Record
45%
638-788 (1426)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$1,321.75
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$48.74
Record
47%
1188-1322 (2510)
Invested
$934.26
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$71.35
Record
51%
4911-4688 (9599)
Invested
$950
Value
$915.02
PnL
-$6.94
Record
52%
3858-3579 (7437)
Invested
$931.02
Value
$822.73
PnL
-$105.26
Record
59%
1161-811 (1972)
Invested
$866.78
Value
$796.93
PnL
-$69.32
Record
47%
1178-1305 (2483)
Invested
$763.87
Value
$792.5
PnL
+$28.63
Record
50%
4592-4670 (9262)
Invested
$831.12
Value
$749.99
PnL
-$35.6
Record
52%
5189-4868 (10057)
Invested
$737.75
Value
$735.5
PnL
-$2.25
Record
55%
4618-3720 (8338)
Invested
$735.18
Value
$712.64
PnL
-$22.54
Record
44%
841-1059 (1900)
Invested
$581.02
Value
$495.67
PnL
-$2.74
Record
54%
4218-3562 (7780)
Invested
$428.25
Value
$495.73
PnL
+$67.48
Record
50%
888-882 (1770)
Invested
$340.19
Value
$407.03
PnL
+$66.85
Record
51%
888-867 (1755)
Invested
$416.46
Value
$380.97
PnL
-$35.49
Record
46%
882-1056 (1938)
Invested
$325.85
Value
$369.21
PnL
+$43.37
Record
34%
822-1563 (2385)
NIULAI4Invested
$335.48
Value
$387.39
PnL
+$51.91
Record
30%
590-1363 (1953)
Invested
$286.6
Value
$251.95
PnL
-$34.65
Record
51%
1661-1571 (3232)
Both legs:
Invested
$210.94
Value
—
PnL
-$210.94
Record
48%
826-907 (1733)
Invested
$255.07
Value
$212.53
PnL
-$42.54
Record
51%
890-857 (1747)
Invested
$119.89
Value
$184.52
PnL
+$92.45
Record
62%
4631-2815 (7446)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$181.53
Value
$173.98
PnL
+$4.33
Record
51%
2540-2400 (4940)
Invested
$110.77
Value
$148.67
PnL
+$37.9
Record
49%
938-977 (1915)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
Up — $4.9K
THG.
Up — $3.5K
machine-earning
ARBArbitrage — excluded
machinelearned
Up — $1.4K
bosona
Up — $1.0K
soswald1
Up — $915.02
Bonereaper
Up — $822.73
CrouchPredictions
Up — $796.93
asdcaxz
Up — $792.5