Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET
Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
47
Up 55%
15 arb excluded
$14.8K
$-12.1K
Smart Money Signal
26 of 47 top traders (55%)15 arbitrage traders dimmed26 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $9.0K | — | $-6.9K | 55% 516-419 (935) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$158.5 | 43% 353-468 (821) |
MA machine-earningARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.6K | -$19.71 | 45% 638-788 (1426) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $1.8K | — | $-1.7K | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $1.8K | $3.6K | +$1.7K | |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 55¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 59% 1161-811 (1972) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 53.6¢ | $761.38 | — | -$693.05 | 44% 841-1059 (1900) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Upavg 39.2¢ | $659.62 | — | -$659.62 | 47% 1178-1305 (2483) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Upavg 55.3¢ | $556.53 | — | -$554.77 | 50% 4592-4670 (9262) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 26.6¢ | $349.43 | $700 | +$350.56 | 47% 1188-1322 (2510) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 63¢ | $367.19 | $583.23 | +$216.04 | 30% 590-1363 (1953) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 60.2¢ | $506.87 | — | -$506.87 | 46% 882-1056 (1938) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Upavg 75.2¢ | $398.12 | $629.22 | +$231.1 | 51% 1661-1571 (3232) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 18.6¢ | $116.79 | $629.22 | +$512.44 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 75.2¢ | $281.33 | — | -$281.33 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 52.1¢ | $549.46 | $491.6 | +$3.97 | 54% 4218-3562 (7780) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.1¢ | $256.32 | — | -$243.08 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48¢ | $236.11 | $491.6 | +$247.05 | |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 84.2¢ | $596.87 | — | -$596.87 | 51% 4911-4688 (9599) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 46.5¢ | $408.32 | $457.24 | +$48.92 | 55% 4618-3720 (8338) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Upavg 45.7¢ | $445.8 | — | -$445.8 | 34% 822-1563 (2385) |
BL blue.birdsARB<$100 | Upavg 72.1¢ | $459.99 | $515.47 | +$55.49 | 52% 5189-4868 (10057) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40.3¢ | $207.62 | $515.47 | +$307.85 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 72.1¢ | $252.37 | — | -$252.37 | |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 75¢ | $511.16 | — | -$491.42 | 49% 2495-2563 (5058) |
GA gansinimenCTR | Upavg 42.5¢ | $223.96 | — | -$223.96 | 52% 465-434 (899) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Upavg 59.6¢ | $311.08 | — | -$311.08 | 54% 4679-4049 (8728) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Upavg 70.2¢ | $216.5 | $197.59 | -$18.91 | 53% 1003-903 (1906) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 70.2¢ | $172.02 | — | -$172.02 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 22.5¢ | $44.47 | $197.59 | +$153.11 | |
 OhioAIARB<$100 | Downavg 42.7¢ | $212.01 | $248.16 | +$36.15 | 50% 873-866 (1739) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.7¢ | $106.05 | $248.16 | +$142.11 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 63.4¢ | $105.96 | — | -$105.96 | |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 41.7¢ | $116.55 | $182.48 | +$65.93 | 51% 888-867 (1755) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $178.58 | $169.87 | -$8.7 | 51% 2540-2400 (4940) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 79¢ | $126.39 | — | -$126.39 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30.7¢ | $52.18 | $169.87 | +$117.69 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 52.8¢ | $160.82 | $299.82 | +$138.99 | 51% 2181-2090 (4271) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR | Upavg 74¢ | $132.76 | — | -$132.76 | 53% 1050-921 (1971) |
Invested
$8,995
Value
—
PnL
$-6.9K
Record
55%
516-419 (935)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$158.5
Record
43%
353-468 (821)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.6K
PnL
-$19.71
Record
45%
638-788 (1426)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,144.91
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
59%
1161-811 (1972)
Invested
$761.38
Value
—
PnL
-$693.05
Record
44%
841-1059 (1900)
Invested
$659.62
Value
—
PnL
-$659.62
Record
47%
1178-1305 (2483)
Invested
$556.53
Value
—
PnL
-$554.77
Record
50%
4592-4670 (9262)
machinelearnedInvested
$349.43
Value
$700
PnL
+$350.56
Record
47%
1188-1322 (2510)
NIULAI4Invested
$367.19
Value
$583.23
PnL
+$216.04
Record
30%
590-1363 (1953)
Invested
$506.87
Value
—
PnL
-$506.87
Record
46%
882-1056 (1938)
Invested
$398.12
Value
$629.22
PnL
+$231.1
Record
51%
1661-1571 (3232)
Both legs:
Invested
$549.46
Value
$491.6
PnL
+$3.97
Record
54%
4218-3562 (7780)
Both legs:
Invested
$596.87
Value
—
PnL
-$596.87
Record
51%
4911-4688 (9599)
Invested
$408.32
Value
$457.24
PnL
+$48.92
Record
55%
4618-3720 (8338)
Invested
$445.8
Value
—
PnL
-$445.8
Record
34%
822-1563 (2385)
Invested
$459.99
Value
$515.47
PnL
+$55.49
Record
52%
5189-4868 (10057)
Both legs:
Invested
$511.16
Value
—
PnL
-$491.42
Record
49%
2495-2563 (5058)
Invested
$223.96
Value
—
PnL
-$223.96
Record
52%
465-434 (899)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$311.08
Value
—
PnL
-$311.08
Record
54%
4679-4049 (8728)
Invested
$216.5
Value
$197.59
PnL
-$18.91
Record
53%
1003-903 (1906)
Both legs:
OhioAIARB<$100Invested
$212.01
Value
$248.16
PnL
+$36.15
Record
50%
873-866 (1739)
Both legs:
Invested
$116.55
Value
$182.48
PnL
+$65.93
Record
51%
888-867 (1755)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$178.58
Value
$169.87
PnL
-$8.7
Record
51%
2540-2400 (4940)
Both legs:
Invested
$160.82
Value
$299.82
PnL
+$138.99
Record
51%
2181-2090 (4271)
Invested
$132.76
Value
—
PnL
-$132.76
Record
53%
1050-921 (1971)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
Down — $5.0K
machine-earning
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRUp — $0
asdcaxz
CTRUp — $0
machinelearned
Down — $700
NIULAI4
Down — $583.23
GoodFallen
CTRUp — $0