Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET

Resolved Up. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 79%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.0K

Combined PnL

$165.43

Smart Money Signal

38 of 48 top traders (79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up38 traders

Total Value$26.0K

Total Shares26,036

Combined PnL+$451.97

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares855

Combined PnL-$286.54

Up — 79%Down — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.9K	$8.1K	+$0.53	55% 516-419 (935)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$14.2	43% 353-468 (821)
MA machine-earning	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$62.08	45% 638-788 (1426)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$3.01	53% 1595-1405 (3000)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$950	$940	-$4.3	52% 3858-3579 (7437)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$470	$940	+$470.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$475	—	-$475
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$669.24	$676	+$6.76	98% 4498-92 (4590)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 53.3¢	$558.99	$500.01	+$2.3	54% 4218-3562 (7780)
MO mo-money	Upavg 95¢	$410.97	$431.59	+$20.62	52% 1673-1561 (3234)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 70¢	$511.58	$413.8	-$97.24	59% 1161-811 (1972)
BO bosona	Upavg 94.4¢	$393.36	$416.88	+$23.52	51% 4911-4688 (9599)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 50.9¢	$342.1	$671.89	+$329.79	51% 2181-2090 (4271)
ST stepahead	Upavg 79.9¢	$304.01	$296.33	-$7.67	55% 4618-3720 (8338)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 60.4¢	$266.41	$281.05	+$14.64	51% 2540-2400 (4940)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 89.3¢	$379.95	$235.1	-$144.85	47% 1178-1305 (2483)
AL almach	Upavg 95¢	$243.74	$239	-$4.74	51% 1661-1571 (3232)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 73.1¢	$166.02	$176.03	+$10.01	50% 4592-4670 (9262)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 68.7¢	$132.99	$150	+$17.01	34% 822-1563 (2385)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 77.3¢	$147.85	$152.44	+$4.59	44% 841-1059 (1900)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 81.4¢	$151.27	$128.88	-$22.39	52% 5189-4868 (10057)
SU suntori	Upavg 63¢	$93.45	$148.33	+$54.88	46% 3282-3819 (7101)
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 89¢	$88.99	$99.98	+$11	70% 1831-785 (2616)
machinelearned	Upavg 58¢	$89.34	$154.03	+$64.69	47% 1188-1322 (2510)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 85¢	$85	$100	+$15	52% 465-434 (899)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 90.2¢	$77.52	$85.94	+$8.42	67% 3966-1997 (5963)
AA aaa221	Upavg 59¢	$85.71	$145.27	+$59.56	60% 4239-2880 (7119)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,927

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$0.53

Record

55%

516-419 (935)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$14.2

Record

43%

353-468 (821)

machine-earning

Invested

$4,000

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$62.08

Record

45%

638-788 (1426)

0x50f7

Invested

$3,005

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$3.01

Record

53%

1595-1405 (3000)

soswald1ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$950

Value

$940

PnL

-$4.3

Record

52%

3858-3579 (7437)

Both legs:

Up$47050¢+$470.7

Down$47550¢-$475

hoodquant

Invested

$669.24

Value

$676

PnL

+$6.76

Record

98%

4498-92 (4590)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$558.99

Value

$500.01

PnL

+$2.3

Record

54%

4218-3562 (7780)

mo-money

Invested

$410.97

Value

$431.59

PnL

+$20.62

Record

52%

1673-1561 (3234)

Bonereaper

Invested

$511.58

Value

$413.8

PnL

-$97.24

Record

59%

1161-811 (1972)

bosona

Invested

$393.36

Value

$416.88

PnL

+$23.52

Record

51%

4911-4688 (9599)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$342.1

Value

$671.89

PnL

+$329.79

Record

51%

2181-2090 (4271)

stepahead

Invested

$304.01

Value

$296.33

PnL

-$7.67

Record

55%

4618-3720 (8338)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$266.41

Value

$281.05

PnL

+$14.64

Record

51%

2540-2400 (4940)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$379.95

Value

$235.1

PnL

-$144.85

Record

47%

1178-1305 (2483)

almach

Invested

$243.74

Value

$239

PnL

-$4.74

Record

51%

1661-1571 (3232)

asdcaxz

Invested

$166.02

Value

$176.03

PnL

+$10.01

Record

50%

4592-4670 (9262)

ply-pm0

Invested

$132.99

Value

$150

PnL

+$17.01

Record

34%

822-1563 (2385)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$147.85

Value

$152.44

PnL

+$4.59

Record

44%

841-1059 (1900)

blue.birds

Invested

$151.27

Value

$128.88

PnL

-$22.39

Record

52%

5189-4868 (10057)

suntori

Invested

$93.45

Value

$148.33

PnL

+$54.88

Record

46%

3282-3819 (7101)

BoneOhio<$100

Invested

$88.99

Value

$99.98

PnL

+$11

Record

70%

1831-785 (2616)

machinelearned

Invested

$89.34

Value

$154.03

PnL

+$64.69

Record

47%

1188-1322 (2510)

gansinimen

Invested

$85

Value

$100

PnL

+$15

Record

52%

465-434 (899)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$77.52

Value

$85.94

PnL

+$8.42

Record

67%

3966-1997 (5963)

aaa221

Invested

$85.71

Value

$145.27

PnL

+$59.56

Record

60%

4239-2880 (7119)

Smart Money Signal

38 of 48 top traders (79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x8ea6227e...b7e59b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794761700

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $8.1K

+$0.53

arcsine-barrister

Up — $5.0K

+$14.2

machine-earning

Up — $4.0K

+$62.08

0x50f7

Up — $3.0K

+$3.01

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$4.3

hoodquant

Up — $676

+$6.76

ByteBadger92

Up — $500.01

+$2.3

mo-money

Up — $431.59

+$20.62

Bonereaper

Up — $413.8

-$97.24

bosona

Up — $416.88

+$23.52

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