Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET

Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.4K

Combined PnL

-$576.41

Smart Money Signal

Down

39 of 55 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down39 traders

Total Value$21.4K

Total Shares21,415

Combined PnL+$735.67

Up16 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,121

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 50¢	$8.9K	$8.1K	+$34.79	55% 516-419 (935)
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$13.45	43% 353-468 (821)
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	+$27.42	45% 638-788 (1426)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.9K	—	$-1.9K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.9K	$3.8K	+$1.9K
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 65.4¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$144.63	47% 1178-1305 (2483)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 70.9¢	$864.42	$622.17	-$237.85	59% 1161-811 (1972)
AL almach	Downavg 78.5¢	$589.38	$610.75	+$21.37	51% 1661-1571 (3232)
MO mo-money	Downavg 77.5¢	$541.08	$665.66	+$124.58	52% 1673-1561 (3234)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 66.7¢	$514.37	$535.18	+$20.81	52% 5189-4868 (10057)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 51¢	$532.2	$500.64	-$3.21	54% 4218-3562 (7780)
machinelearned	Downavg 65.9¢	$447.98	$680.17	+$232.19	47% 1188-1322 (2510)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$473.04	$477.82	+$4.78	98% 4498-92 (4590)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 40¢	$484.09	—	-$484.09	51% 2181-2090 (4271)
ST stepahead	Downavg 68.5¢	$289.14	$337.3	+$48.16	55% 4618-3720 (8338)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 63.5¢	$615.1	$862.92	+$247.82	51% 4911-4688 (9599)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.5¢	$548.11	$862.92	+$314.81
└ Up leg	Upavg 67¢	$66.99	—	-$66.99
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 35.1¢	$404.99	—	-$396.8	44% 841-1059 (1900)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 74.3¢	$269.67	$277.14	+$7.47	46% 882-1056 (1938)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 72.3¢	$237.73	$271.43	+$33.7	34% 822-1563 (2385)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 68.7¢	$232.31	$205.98	-$26.34	52% 465-434 (899)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.7¢	$140.79	—	-$140.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.4¢	$91.53	$205.98	+$114.45
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100	Downavg 63.5¢	$154.21	$125.97	-$28.24	51% 903-861 (1764)
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.2¢	$74.21	—	-$74.21
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.5¢	$79.99	$125.97	+$45.98
OhioAI	Downavg 56.1¢	$163.73	$178.94	+$15.22	50% 873-866 (1739)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 72.8¢	$220.52	$157.29	-$62.46	50% 4592-4670 (9262)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR	Upavg 45.4¢	$121.09	—	-$121.09	51% 890-857 (1747)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 76.7¢	$110.64	$121.49	+$9.29	62% 4631-2815 (7446)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 56.8¢	$70.38	$113	+$42.62	50% 888-882 (1770)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 56¢	$111.42	$105.2	+$13.18	42% 884-1198 (2082)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down

Invested

$8,857

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$34.79

Record

55%

516-419 (935)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$13.45

Record

43%

353-468 (821)

machine-earningARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$27.42

Record

45%

638-788 (1426)

Both legs:

Up$1,850.6950¢$-1.9K

Down$1,907.8350¢+$1.9K

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,368.98

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$144.63

Record

47%

1178-1305 (2483)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$864.42

Value

$622.17

PnL

-$237.85

Record

59%

1161-811 (1972)

almach

Down

Invested

$589.38

Value

$610.75

PnL

+$21.37

Record

51%

1661-1571 (3232)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$541.08

Value

$665.66

PnL

+$124.58

Record

52%

1673-1561 (3234)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$514.37

Value

$535.18

PnL

+$20.81

Record

52%

5189-4868 (10057)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$532.2

Value

$500.64

PnL

-$3.21

Record

54%

4218-3562 (7780)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$447.98

Value

$680.17

PnL

+$232.19

Record

47%

1188-1322 (2510)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$473.04

Value

$477.82

PnL

+$4.78

Record

98%

4498-92 (4590)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$484.09

Value

—

PnL

-$484.09

Record

51%

2181-2090 (4271)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$289.14

Value

$337.3

PnL

+$48.16

Record

55%

4618-3720 (8338)

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$615.1

Value

$862.92

PnL

+$247.82

Record

51%

4911-4688 (9599)

Both legs:

Down$548.1163.5¢+$314.81

Up$66.9967¢-$66.99

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$404.99

Value

—

PnL

-$396.8

Record

44%

841-1059 (1900)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$269.67

Value

$277.14

PnL

+$7.47

Record

46%

882-1056 (1938)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$237.73

Value

$271.43

PnL

+$33.7

Record

34%

822-1563 (2385)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$232.31

Value

$205.98

PnL

-$26.34

Record

52%

465-434 (899)

Both legs:

Up$140.7968.7¢-$140.79

Down$91.5344.4¢+$114.45

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$154.21

Value

$125.97

PnL

-$28.24

Record

51%

903-861 (1764)

Both legs:

Up$74.2130.2¢-$74.21

Down$79.9963.5¢+$45.98

OhioAI

Down

Invested

$163.73

Value

$178.94

PnL

+$15.22

Record

50%

873-866 (1739)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$220.52

Value

$157.29

PnL

-$62.46

Record

50%

4592-4670 (9262)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR

Invested

$121.09

Value

—

PnL

-$121.09

Record

51%

890-857 (1747)

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$110.64

Value

$121.49

PnL

+$9.29

Record

62%

4631-2815 (7446)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$70.38

Value

$113

PnL

+$42.62

Record

50%

888-882 (1770)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$111.42

Value

$105.2

PnL

+$13.18

Record

42%

884-1198 (2082)

Smart Money Signal

Down

39 of 55 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1917cf82...d8e1ff

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794761400

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down — $8.1K

+$34.79

arcsine-barrister

Down — $5.0K

+$13.45

machine-earning

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$27.42

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.5K

+$144.63

Bonereaper

Down — $622.17

-$237.85

almach

Down — $610.75

+$21.37

mo-money

Down — $665.66

+$124.58

blue.birds

Down — $535.18

+$20.81

ByteBadger92

Down — $500.64

-$3.21

machinelearned

Down — $680.17

+$232.19

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