Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET

Resolved Down. 34% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 35%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.6K

Combined PnL

$-12.3K

Smart Money Signal

19 of 56 top traders (34%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up19 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares15,023

Combined PnL$-13.1K

Down37 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares9,944

Combined PnL+$764.11

Up — 34%Down — 66%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.8K	—	$-7.6K	55% 516-419 (935)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.5K	43% 353-468 (821)
MA machine-earning	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.6K	+$92.64	45% 638-788 (1426)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 60.6¢	$658.64	$701.2	+$42.57	47% 1178-1305 (2483)
BO bosona	Downavg 76¢	$555.81	$599.06	+$89.05	51% 4911-4688 (9599)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 55.4¢	$541.48	$505.03	-$36.45	44% 841-1059 (1900)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 53.8¢	$609.32	$496.67	-$1.98	54% 4218-3562 (7780)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 76.7¢	$408.75	$420.1	+$11.35	50% 4592-4670 (9262)
machinelearned	Downavg 46.1¢	$314.12	$367.01	+$52.89	47% 1188-1322 (2510)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 57.6¢	$618.2	$288.36	-$329.84	59% 1161-811 (1972)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.3¢	$153.58	$288.36	+$134.78
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.6¢	$464.61	—	-$464.61
ST stepahead	Downavg 52.4¢	$340.66	$325.67	-$14.99	55% 4618-3720 (8338)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 57.8¢	$302.29	$313.05	+$10.75	52% 5189-4868 (10057)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 50.8¢	$267.12	$334.19	+$67.07	46% 882-1056 (1938)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$268.02	$270.73	+$2.71	99% 955-7 (962)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 72.7¢	$173.86	$233.92	+$60.06	51% 888-867 (1755)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 66.2¢	$216.74	$204.33	-$12.41	34% 822-1563 (2385)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Downavg 79.7¢	$175.1	$189	+$13.9	48% 826-907 (1733)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$156.34	$154.67	-$1.66	51% 2540-2400 (4940)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$78.85	—	-$78.85
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.1¢	$77.48	$154.67	+$77.19
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 61.1¢	$177.78	$131.03	-$46.75	53% 1003-903 (1906)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.9¢	$62.8	$131.03	+$68.23
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.1¢	$114.98	—	-$114.98
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 88.6¢	$136.58	$145	+$8.42	53% 1050-921 (1971)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 45¢	$94.43	$161.18	+$66.75	54% 4679-4049 (8728)
MO mo-money	Downavg 93¢	$128.88	$138.56	+$9.68	52% 1673-1561 (3234)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR	Upavg 53.9¢	$109.25	—	-$109.25	48% 2544-2786 (5330)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 53¢	$56.66	$100	+$43.34	52% 465-434 (899)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100	Downavg 83.1¢	$62.5	$75.23	+$12.73	59% 1091-755 (1846)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,834

Value

—

PnL

$-7.6K

Record

55%

516-419 (935)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

43%

353-468 (821)

machine-earning

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$92.64

Record

45%

638-788 (1426)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$658.64

Value

$701.2

PnL

+$42.57

Record

47%

1178-1305 (2483)

bosona

Down

Invested

$555.81

Value

$599.06

PnL

+$89.05

Record

51%

4911-4688 (9599)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$541.48

Value

$505.03

PnL

-$36.45

Record

44%

841-1059 (1900)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$609.32

Value

$496.67

PnL

-$1.98

Record

54%

4218-3562 (7780)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$408.75

Value

$420.1

PnL

+$11.35

Record

50%

4592-4670 (9262)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$314.12

Value

$367.01

PnL

+$52.89

Record

47%

1188-1322 (2510)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$618.2

Value

$288.36

PnL

-$329.84

Record

59%

1161-811 (1972)

Both legs:

Down$153.5853.3¢+$134.78

Up$464.6157.6¢-$464.61

stepahead

Down

Invested

$340.66

Value

$325.67

PnL

-$14.99

Record

55%

4618-3720 (8338)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$302.29

Value

$313.05

PnL

+$10.75

Record

52%

5189-4868 (10057)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$267.12

Value

$334.19

PnL

+$67.07

Record

46%

882-1056 (1938)

THG.

Down

Invested

$268.02

Value

$270.73

PnL

+$2.71

Record

99%

955-7 (962)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$173.86

Value

$233.92

PnL

+$60.06

Record

51%

888-867 (1755)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$216.74

Value

$204.33

PnL

-$12.41

Record

34%

822-1563 (2385)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Down

Invested

$175.1

Value

$189

PnL

+$13.9

Record

48%

826-907 (1733)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$156.34

Value

$154.67

PnL

-$1.66

Record

51%

2540-2400 (4940)

Both legs:

Up$78.8550¢-$78.85

Down$77.4850.1¢+$77.19

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$177.78

Value

$131.03

PnL

-$46.75

Record

53%

1003-903 (1906)

Both legs:

Down$62.847.9¢+$68.23

Up$114.9861.1¢-$114.98

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$136.58

Value

$145

PnL

+$8.42

Record

53%

1050-921 (1971)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$94.43

Value

$161.18

PnL

+$66.75

Record

54%

4679-4049 (8728)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$128.88

Value

$138.56

PnL

+$9.68

Record

52%

1673-1561 (3234)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR

Invested

$109.25

Value

—

PnL

-$109.25

Record

48%

2544-2786 (5330)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$56.66

Value

$100

PnL

+$43.34

Record

52%

465-434 (899)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100

Down

Invested

$62.5

Value

$75.23

PnL

+$12.73

Record

59%

1091-755 (1846)

Smart Money Signal

19 of 56 top traders (34%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x15ad3ac9...456cc5

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794761100

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $0

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

machine-earning

Down — $3.6K

+$92.64

CrouchPredictions

Down — $701.2

+$42.57

bosona

Down — $599.06

+$89.05

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $505.03

-$36.45

ByteBadger92

Down — $496.67

-$1.98

asdcaxz

Down — $420.1

+$11.35

machinelearned

Down — $367.01

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded