Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 58%

16 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.7K

Combined PnL

-$86.48

Smart Money Signal

27 of 51 top traders (53%)16 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%43 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up27 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,587

Combined PnL+$282.94

Down24 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,325

Combined PnL-$369.42

Up — 53%Down — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$8.6K	$7.6K	+$85.19	55% 516-419 (935)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$3.8K	$7.6K	+$4.1K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$3.9K	—	$-4.0K
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$9.7	43% 353-468 (821)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.4K	$4.9K	+$2.5K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.5K	—	$-2.5K
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.6K	-$4.17	45% 638-788 (1426)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.8K	$3.6K	+$1.9K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.8K	—	$-1.9K
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 64.6¢	$863.32	$838.03	+$30.79	59% 1161-811 (1972)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 67¢	$754.15	$638.52	-$115.62	47% 1178-1305 (2483)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67¢	$428.12	$638.52	+$210.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.8¢	$326.03	—	-$326.03
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 77.7¢	$509.15	$488.87	-$20.28	52% 5189-4868 (10057)
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.7¢	$379.7	$488.87	+$109.17
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.1¢	$129.46	—	-$129.46
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 51.5¢	$548.13	$497.18	-$0.45	54% 4218-3562 (7780)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.5¢	$256.23	$497.18	+$249.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.6¢	$235.79	—	-$249.8
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 68.9¢	$428.44	$432.53	+$4.09	44% 841-1059 (1900)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.9¢	$297.87	$432.53	+$134.66
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.8¢	$130.57	—	-$130.57
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 98¢	$485.94	$459.59	-$26.35	47% 1188-1322 (2510)
└ Up leg	Upavg 98¢	$450.4	$459.59	+$9.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 10¢	$35.54	—	-$35.54
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 65.4¢	$332.63	$337.4	+$4.77	55% 4618-3720 (8338)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.4¢	$220.76	$337.4	+$116.64
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.5¢	$111.87	—	-$111.87
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 71.9¢	$240.87	$292.05	+$51.18	50% 4592-4670 (9262)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.9¢	$210.07	$292.05	+$81.98
└ Down leg	Downavg 17.8¢	$30.8	—	-$30.8
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 67.3¢	$242.11	$268.18	+$26.07	46% 882-1056 (1938)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.3¢	$180.61	$268.18	+$87.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.8¢	$61.5	—	-$61.5
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$354.42	$358	+$3.58	98% 4498-92 (4590)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 57.2¢	$185.95	$193.14	+$7.19	51% 2540-2400 (4940)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.2¢	$110.56	$193.14	+$82.58
└ Down leg	Downavg 29¢	$75.4	—	-$75.4
BO bosona	Upavg 77.2¢	$230.68	$298.83	+$68.14	51% 4911-4688 (9599)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 67.6¢	$178.68	$195.98	+$17.3	34% 822-1563 (2385)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.6¢	$132.43	$195.98	+$63.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.2¢	$46.25	—	-$46.25
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Upavg 90.4¢	$162.67	$180	+$17.33	65% 97-52 (149)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Upavg 61.1¢	$154.28	$200.38	+$46.1	48% 826-907 (1733)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 69.9¢	$86.4	$123.65	+$37.25	49% 2495-2563 (5058)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 74.3¢	$75.15	$87.13	+$11.98	53% 1050-921 (1971)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.3¢	$64.74	$87.13	+$22.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 12.3¢	$10.41	—	-$10.41
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Downavg 43.4¢	$89.08	$49.46	-$39.62	51% 890-857 (1747)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.4¢	$61.68	—	-$61.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.4¢	$27.4	$49.46	+$22.06
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100	Downavg 22.7¢	$61.1	—	-$61.1	50% 888-882 (1770)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100	Upavg 83.7¢	$84.38	$73	-$11.38	51% 903-861 (1764)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 86¢	$78.13	$50	-$28.13	54% 4679-4049 (8728)
└ Up leg	Upavg 86¢	$43	$50	+$7
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.1¢	$35.13	—	-$35.13
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100	Upavg 81.4¢	$76.03	$90.67	+$16.83	59% 1103-769 (1872)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$8,625

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$85.19

Record

55%

516-419 (935)

Both legs:

Up$3,818.2850¢+$4.1K

Down$3,938.5750¢$-4.0K

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$9.7

Record

43%

353-468 (821)

Both legs:

Up$2,447.550¢+$2.5K

Down$2,49550¢$-2.5K

machine-earningARB<$100

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$4.17

Record

45%

638-788 (1426)

Both legs:

Up$1,808.0850¢+$1.9K

Down$1,763.4950¢$-1.9K

Bonereaper

Invested

$863.32

Value

$838.03

PnL

+$30.79

Record

59%

1161-811 (1972)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$754.15

Value

$638.52

PnL

-$115.62

Record

47%

1178-1305 (2483)

Both legs:

Up$428.1267¢+$210.41

Down$326.0331.8¢-$326.03

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$509.15

Value

$488.87

PnL

-$20.28

Record

52%

5189-4868 (10057)

Both legs:

Up$379.777.7¢+$109.17

Down$129.4622.1¢-$129.46

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$548.13

Value

$497.18

PnL

-$0.45

Record

54%

4218-3562 (7780)

Both legs:

Up$256.2351.5¢+$249.35

Down$235.7946.6¢-$249.8

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$428.44

Value

$432.53

PnL

+$4.09

Record

44%

841-1059 (1900)

Both legs:

Up$297.8768.9¢+$134.66

Down$130.5724.8¢-$130.57

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$485.94

Value

$459.59

PnL

-$26.35

Record

47%

1188-1322 (2510)

Both legs:

Up$450.498¢+$9.19

Down$35.5410¢-$35.54

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$332.63

Value

$337.4

PnL

+$4.77

Record

55%

4618-3720 (8338)

Both legs:

Up$220.7665.4¢+$116.64

Down$111.8727.5¢-$111.87

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$240.87

Value

$292.05

PnL

+$51.18

Record

50%

4592-4670 (9262)

Both legs:

Up$210.0771.9¢+$81.98

Down$30.817.8¢-$30.8

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$242.11

Value

$268.18

PnL

+$26.07

Record

46%

882-1056 (1938)

Both legs:

Up$180.6167.3¢+$87.57

Down$61.530.8¢-$61.5

hoodquant

Invested

$354.42

Value

$358

PnL

+$3.58

Record

98%

4498-92 (4590)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$185.95

Value

$193.14

PnL

+$7.19

Record

51%

2540-2400 (4940)

Both legs:

Up$110.5657.2¢+$82.58

Down$75.429¢-$75.4

bosona

Invested

$230.68

Value

$298.83

PnL

+$68.14

Record

51%

4911-4688 (9599)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$178.68

Value

$195.98

PnL

+$17.3

Record

34%

822-1563 (2385)

Both legs:

Up$132.4367.6¢+$63.55

Down$46.2526.2¢-$46.25

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Invested

$162.67

Value

$180

PnL

+$17.33

Record

65%

97-52 (149)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Invested

$154.28

Value

$200.38

PnL

+$46.1

Record

48%

826-907 (1733)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$86.4

Value

$123.65

PnL

+$37.25

Record

49%

2495-2563 (5058)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$75.15

Value

$87.13

PnL

+$11.98

Record

53%

1050-921 (1971)

Both legs:

Up$64.7474.3¢+$22.4

Down$10.4112.3¢-$10.41

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$89.08

Value

$49.46

PnL

-$39.62

Record

51%

890-857 (1747)

Both legs:

Down$61.6843.4¢-$61.68

Up$27.455.4¢+$22.06

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$61.1

Value

—

PnL

-$61.1

Record

50%

888-882 (1770)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212<$100

Invested

$84.38

Value

$73

PnL

-$11.38

Record

51%

903-861 (1764)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$78.13

Value

$50

PnL

-$28.13

Record

54%

4679-4049 (8728)

Both legs:

Up$4386¢+$7

Down$35.1336.1¢-$35.13

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100

Invested

$76.03

Value

$90.67

PnL

+$16.83

Record

59%

1103-769 (1872)

Smart Money Signal

27 of 51 top traders (53%)16 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%43 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0052e62e...329a47

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794760800

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

machine-earning

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Up — $838.03

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

stepahead

Arbitrage — excluded