Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET

22 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold Up (76%) · Up at 69¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 15

Up69¢Down31¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 76%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.1K

Combined PnL

$204.7

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 68.5¢

+16% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

22 of 29 top traders (76%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up69%

Down32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up22 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,955

Combined PnL+$197.25

Down7 traders

Total Value$365.4

Total Shares717

Combined PnL+$7.45

Up — 76%Down — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$9.0K	$8.5K	+$43.31	55% 505-413 (918)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$4.3K	$6.3K	+$2.0K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$4.1K	$2.2K	$-2.0K
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$0.42	43% 342-458 (800)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.5K	$3.4K	+$925.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.5K	$1.6K	-$925
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	-$11.25	45% 626-779 (1405)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.9K	$2.6K	+$710.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.9K	$1.2K	-$721.44
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$950	$944.38	-$0.27	52% 3806-3541 (7347)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$475	$593.75	+$118.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$467.5	$350.63	-$119.02
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.2¢	$515.47	$498.62	-$0.67	54% 4162-3504 (7666)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.2¢	$253.64	$345.85	+$92.51
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$241.79	$152.78	-$93.17
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 62.4¢	$371.5	$384.04	+$12.54	59% 1150-796 (1946)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 51¢	$460.66	$342.48	-$118.18	51% 4890-4670 (9560)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72¢	$205.66	$209.98	+$4.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 51¢	$255	$132.5	-$122.5
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 51¢	$393	$339.01	-$53.99	52% 1650-1545 (3195)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51¢	$255	$197.5	-$57.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 59¢	$138	$141.51	+$3.51
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 50.9¢	$241.29	$253.61	+$12.32	51% 2151-2062 (4213)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 49¢	$302.13	$241.44	-$60.69	47% 1175-1312 (2487)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$196	$126	-$70
└ Up leg	Upavg 63¢	$106.13	$115.44	+$9.31
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 55.9¢	$228	$233.01	+$5.01	55% 4601-3705 (8306)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.9¢	$141.66	$186.2	+$44.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.9¢	$86.34	$46.81	-$39.54
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 60.4¢	$217.05	$230.52	+$13.48	44% 831-1045 (1876)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 42.5¢	$186.07	$181.27	-$4.8	51% 2506-2369 (4875)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.5¢	$84	$117.6	+$33.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.5¢	$102.07	$63.67	-$38.4
SU suntori	Upavg 48.7¢	$934.57	$179.22	+$160.16	46% 3240-3776 (7016)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 63.3¢	$175.36	$177.6	+$2.24	52% 5172-4852 (10024)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 55.8¢	$142	$145.53	+$3.52	34% 810-1551 (2361)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.8¢	$101.19	$109.66	+$8.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.9¢	$40.82	$35.87	-$4.94
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 64.2¢	$126.11	$134.41	+$8.3	45% 868-1046 (1914)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 45¢	$91	$73.47	-$15.6	54% 4666-4039 (8705)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45¢	$50.66	$42.22	-$9.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 74¢	$37	$31.25	-$5.75
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 58.5¢	$67.09	$69.35	+$2.25	52% 987-896 (1883)
AL almach<$100	Upavg 58¢	$48.75	$50.85	+$2.1	51% 1638-1554 (3192)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670CTR<$100	Downavg 44.9¢	$42.72	$44.95	+$2.23	47% 813-918 (1731)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100	Downavg 51.6¢	$48.52	$35.25	-$13.27	50% 878-869 (1747)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100	Upavg 59¢	$34.65	$31.5	-$3.15	51% 877-855 (1732)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Upavg 56¢	$31.67	$29.13	-$2.55	58% 5174-3818 (8992)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 71.4¢	$30.85	$25	-$5.85	50% 4548-4636 (9184)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Invested

$8,952

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$43.31

Record

55%

505-413 (918)

Both legs:

Up$4,271.1150¢+$2.0K

Down$4,110.6950¢$-2.0K

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$0.42

Record

43%

342-458 (800)

Both legs:

Up$2,497.550¢+$925.42

Down$2,50050¢-$925

machine-earningARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$11.25

Record

45%

626-779 (1405)

Both legs:

Up$1,889.8450¢+$710.18

Down$1,935.0450¢-$721.44

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$950

Value

$944.38

PnL

-$0.27

Record

52%

3806-3541 (7347)

Both legs:

Up$47550¢+$118.75

Down$467.550¢-$119.02

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$515.47

Value

$498.62

PnL

-$0.67

Record

54%

4162-3504 (7666)

Both legs:

Up$253.6450.2¢+$92.51

Down$241.7949.9¢-$93.17

Bonereaper

Invested

$371.5

Value

$384.04

PnL

+$12.54

Record

59%

1150-796 (1946)

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$460.66

Value

$342.48

PnL

-$118.18

Record

51%

4890-4670 (9560)

Both legs:

Invested

$393

Value

$339.01

PnL

-$53.99

Record

52%

1650-1545 (3195)

Both legs:

Down$25551¢-$57.5

Up$13859¢+$3.51

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$241.29

Value

$253.61

PnL

+$12.32

Record

51%

2151-2062 (4213)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$302.13

Value

$241.44

PnL

-$60.69

Record

47%

1175-1312 (2487)

Both legs:

Down$19649¢-$70

Up$106.1363¢+$9.31

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$228

Value

$233.01

PnL

+$5.01

Record

55%

4601-3705 (8306)

Both legs:

Up$141.6655.9¢+$44.54

Down$86.3448.9¢-$39.54

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$217.05

Value

$230.52

PnL

+$13.48

Record

44%

831-1045 (1876)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$186.07

Value

$181.27

PnL

-$4.8

Record

51%

2506-2369 (4875)

Both legs:

Up$8452.5¢+$33.6

Down$102.0742.5¢-$38.4

suntori

Invested

$934.57

Value

$179.22

PnL

+$160.16

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

blue.birds

Invested

$175.36

Value

$177.6

PnL

+$2.24

Record

52%

5172-4852 (10024)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$142

Value

$145.53

PnL

+$3.52

Record

34%

810-1551 (2361)

Both legs:

Up$101.1955.8¢+$8.47

Down$40.8244.9¢-$4.94

GoodFallen

Invested

$126.11

Value

$134.41

PnL

+$8.3

Record

45%

868-1046 (1914)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$91

Value

$73.47

PnL

-$15.6

Record

54%

4666-4039 (8705)

Both legs:

Down$50.6645¢-$9.85

Up$3774¢-$5.75

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$67.09

Value

$69.35

PnL

+$2.25

Record

52%

987-896 (1883)

almach<$100

Invested

$48.75

Value

$50.85

PnL

+$2.1

Record

51%

1638-1554 (3192)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$42.72

Value

$44.95

PnL

+$2.23

Record

47%

813-918 (1731)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$48.52

Value

$35.25

PnL

-$13.27

Record

50%

878-869 (1747)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100

Invested

$34.65

Value

$31.5

PnL

-$3.15

Record

51%

877-855 (1732)

Hcrystallash<$100

Invested

$31.67

Value

$29.13

PnL

-$2.55

Record

58%

5174-3818 (8992)

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$30.85

Value

$25

PnL

-$5.85

Record

50%

4548-4636 (9184)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

22 of 29 top traders (76%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.