Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET
Resolved Up. 66% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
58
Up 65%
1 arb excluded
$11.2K
$-16.4K
Smart Money Signal
38 of 58 top traders (66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $9.0K | — | $-7.3K | 55% 505-413 (918) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 43% 342-458 (800) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.6K | 45% 626-779 (1405) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$25.99 | 99% 942-7 (949) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.5¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$19.17 | 98% 4434-91 (4525) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 84.1¢ | $861.46 | $899.97 | +$38.51 | 47% 1175-1312 (2487) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 31.1¢ | $1.0K | — | -$943.05 | 59% 1150-796 (1946) |
BO bosona | Upavg 89.5¢ | $600.81 | $668.71 | +$67.9 | 51% 4890-4670 (9560) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 71.1¢ | $647.88 | $534.97 | -$112.91 | 47% 1165-1288 (2453) |
AL almach | Upavg 86.5¢ | $536.94 | $605 | +$68.06 | 51% 1638-1554 (3192) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 54.2¢ | $602.49 | $499.6 | -$1.01 | 54% 4162-3504 (7666) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 68.2¢ | $487.98 | $470.03 | -$17.95 | 44% 831-1045 (1876) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 86.9¢ | $490.03 | $448.97 | -$41.05 | 52% 5172-4852 (10024) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 79.2¢ | $551.94 | $424.33 | -$2.59 | 51% 2506-2369 (4875) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 74.5¢ | $364.14 | $372.79 | +$8.65 | 55% 4601-3705 (8306) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 90.4¢ | $933.29 | $360.72 | -$154.52 | 52% 1650-1545 (3195) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 68¢ | $306.78 | $317.53 | +$43.73 | 50% 4548-4636 (9184) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 71¢ | $291.79 | $268.21 | -$22.53 | 52% 987-896 (1883) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 57.2¢ | $783.47 | $69.4 | -$714.07 | 49% 2456-2514 (4970) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.2¢ | $722.4 | — | -$722.4 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 88¢ | $61.07 | $69.4 | +$8.33 | |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 65.2¢ | $170.07 | $186.48 | +$16.41 | 45% 868-1046 (1914) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 85.9¢ | $149.12 | $150 | +$0.88 | 53% 1026-913 (1939) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 82¢ | $210.32 | $140.61 | -$9.36 | 34% 810-1551 (2361) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 76.7¢ | $106.01 | $125.99 | +$19.98 | 51% 891-849 (1740) |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 94.7¢ | $94.67 | $100 | +$5.33 | 52% 2997-2745 (5742) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 72.1¢ | $86.53 | $91.95 | +$9.27 | 66% 3908-1973 (5881) |
Invested
$8,998
Value
—
PnL
$-7.3K
Record
55%
505-413 (918)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
43%
342-458 (800)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.6K
Record
45%
626-779 (1405)
Invested
$2,572.9
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$25.99
Record
99%
942-7 (949)
Invested
$1,279.83
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$19.17
Record
98%
4434-91 (4525)
machinelearnedInvested
$861.46
Value
$899.97
PnL
+$38.51
Record
47%
1175-1312 (2487)
Invested
$1,001.36
Value
—
PnL
-$943.05
Record
59%
1150-796 (1946)
Invested
$600.81
Value
$668.71
PnL
+$67.9
Record
51%
4890-4670 (9560)
Invested
$647.88
Value
$534.97
PnL
-$112.91
Record
47%
1165-1288 (2453)
Invested
$536.94
Value
$605
PnL
+$68.06
Record
51%
1638-1554 (3192)
Invested
$602.49
Value
$499.6
PnL
-$1.01
Record
54%
4162-3504 (7666)
Invested
$487.98
Value
$470.03
PnL
-$17.95
Record
44%
831-1045 (1876)
Invested
$490.03
Value
$448.97
PnL
-$41.05
Record
52%
5172-4852 (10024)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$551.94
Value
$424.33
PnL
-$2.59
Record
51%
2506-2369 (4875)
Invested
$364.14
Value
$372.79
PnL
+$8.65
Record
55%
4601-3705 (8306)
Invested
$933.29
Value
$360.72
PnL
-$154.52
Record
52%
1650-1545 (3195)
Invested
$306.78
Value
$317.53
PnL
+$43.73
Record
50%
4548-4636 (9184)
Invested
$291.79
Value
$268.21
PnL
-$22.53
Record
52%
987-896 (1883)
Invested
$783.47
Value
$69.4
PnL
-$714.07
Record
49%
2456-2514 (4970)
Both legs:
Invested
$170.07
Value
$186.48
PnL
+$16.41
Record
45%
868-1046 (1914)
Invested
$149.12
Value
$150
PnL
+$0.88
Record
53%
1026-913 (1939)
Invested
$210.32
Value
$140.61
PnL
-$9.36
Record
34%
810-1551 (2361)
Invested
$106.01
Value
$125.99
PnL
+$19.98
Record
51%
891-849 (1740)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$94.67
Value
$100
PnL
+$5.33
Record
52%
2997-2745 (5742)
Invested
$86.53
Value
$91.95
PnL
+$9.27
Record
66%
3908-1973 (5881)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $2.6K
hoodquant
Up — $1.3K
machinelearned
Up — $899.97
Bonereaper
CTRDown — $0
bosona
Up — $668.71
CrouchPredictions
Up — $534.97
almach
Up — $605