Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

22 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 40 top traders (50%)22 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down20 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,180

Combined PnL+$713.13

Up20 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,510

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$8.8K	$7.1K	-$181.15	55% 505-413 (918)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$3.6K	$7.1K	+$3.3K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$3.6K	—	$-3.5K
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.6K	+$54.68	43% 342-458 (800)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.3K	$4.6K	+$2.4K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.4K	—	$-2.3K
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.3K	-$379.14	45% 626-779 (1405)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.7K	$3.3K	+$1.5K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.8K	—	$-1.8K
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 37.5¢	$805.4	$1.1K	+$355.17	59% 1150-796 (1946)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 46.6¢	$844.1	$747.63	-$96.47	47% 1165-1288 (2453)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.7¢	$379.36	$747.63	+$368.27
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.6¢	$464.74	—	-$464.74
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 54.2¢	$719.79	$694.48	-$25.31	55% 4601-3705 (8306)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.2¢	$376.58	$694.48	+$317.89
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.9¢	$343.21	—	-$343.21
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 62.4¢	$361.2	—	-$332.7	49% 2456-2514 (4970)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 55.5¢	$595.52	$509.03	-$86.48	44% 831-1045 (1876)
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.9¢	$167.23	$509.03	+$341.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.5¢	$428.29	—	-$428.29
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 62.2¢	$561.74	$497.59	-$64.14	34% 810-1551 (2361)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.2¢	$309.65	$497.59	+$187.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.5¢	$252.09	—	-$252.09
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.5¢	$542.11	$484.98	-$11.57	54% 4162-3504 (7666)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.3¢	$234.41	$484.98	+$240.49
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.5¢	$248.61	—	-$252.06
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 93¢	$788.72	$444.96	-$343.76	51% 4890-4670 (9560)
└ Down leg	Downavg 93¢	$413.72	$444.96	+$31.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 75¢	$375	—	-$375
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 64.1¢	$502.88	$433.28	-$69.61	52% 5172-4852 (10024)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.1¢	$277.64	$433.28	+$155.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.6¢	$225.25	—	-$225.25
AS asdcaxzCTR	Upavg 46.9¢	$311.78	—	-$292.25	50% 4548-4636 (9184)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 56.8¢	$367.41	$417.83	+$50.42	51% 877-855 (1732)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.8¢	$237.47	$417.83	+$180.36
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.5¢	$129.94	—	-$129.94
BoneOhioCTR	Upavg 67.3¢	$302.98	—	-$302.98	70% 1807-771 (2578)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 48.2¢	$346.16	$257.51	-$88.65	45% 868-1046 (1914)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.5¢	$117.21	$257.51	+$140.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.2¢	$228.95	—	-$228.95
NIULAI4	Downavg 78.2¢	$377	$444.32	+$67.32	30% 579-1350 (1929)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 56.9¢	$573.43	$326.81	+$17.09	51% 2506-2369 (4875)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.9¢	$185.82	$326.81	+$174.97
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.4¢	$157.07	—	-$157.88
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Downavg 84.4¢	$354.91	$315	-$39.91	50% 878-869 (1747)
└ Down leg	Downavg 84.4¢	$265.86	$315	+$49.14
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.7¢	$89.05	—	-$89.05
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 78¢	$336.9	$300	-$36.9	52% 456-421 (877)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78¢	$234	$300	+$66
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.1¢	$102.9	—	-$102.9
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Upavg 36.3¢	$226.09	$218.94	-$7.15	51% 873-850 (1723)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.8¢	$91.52	$218.94	+$127.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.3¢	$134.58	—	-$134.58
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100	Upavg 66.8¢	$322.3	$208.57	-$113.73	48% 818-892 (1710)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.6¢	$111.89	$208.57	+$96.67
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.8¢	$210.4	—	-$210.4
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 71.9¢	$204.39	$296.4	+$92.01	47% 1175-1312 (2487)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.9¢	$151.78	—	-$151.78
└ Down leg	Downavg 17.7¢	$52.61	$296.4	+$243.79
FairValueMachine	Downavg 66.3¢	$215.13	$234.71	+$23.87	54% 4666-4039 (8705)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 92.6¢	$364.5	$258.97	-$105.53	52% 1650-1545 (3195)
└ Down leg	Downavg 92.6¢	$239.87	$258.97	+$19.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 70¢	$124.63	—	-$124.63

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Invested

$8,824

Value

$7.1K

PnL

-$181.15

Record

55%

505-413 (918)

Both legs:

Down$3,564.850¢+$3.3K

Up$3,592.0150¢$-3.5K

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$54.68

Record

43%

342-458 (800)

Both legs:

Down$2,312.7950¢+$2.4K

Up$2,351.4950¢$-2.3K

machine-earningARB<$100

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$379.14

Record

45%

626-779 (1405)

Both legs:

Down$1,651.0350¢+$1.5K

Up$1,775.8650¢$-1.8K

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$805.4

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$355.17

Record

59%

1150-796 (1946)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$844.1

Value

$747.63

PnL

-$96.47

Record

47%

1165-1288 (2453)

Both legs:

Down$379.3650.7¢+$368.27

Up$464.7446.6¢-$464.74

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$719.79

Value

$694.48

PnL

-$25.31

Record

55%

4601-3705 (8306)

Both legs:

Down$376.5854.2¢+$317.89

Up$343.2162.9¢-$343.21

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$361.2

Value

—

PnL

-$332.7

Record

49%

2456-2514 (4970)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$595.52

Value

$509.03

PnL

-$86.48

Record

44%

831-1045 (1876)

Both legs:

Down$167.2332.9¢+$341.8

Up$428.2955.5¢-$428.29

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$561.74

Value

$497.59

PnL

-$64.14

Record

34%

810-1551 (2361)

Both legs:

Down$309.6562.2¢+$187.95

Up$252.0949.5¢-$252.09

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$542.11

Value

$484.98

PnL

-$11.57

Record

54%

4162-3504 (7666)

Both legs:

Down$234.4148.3¢+$240.49

Up$248.6149.5¢-$252.06

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$788.72

Value

$444.96

PnL

-$343.76

Record

51%

4890-4670 (9560)

Both legs:

Down$413.7293¢+$31.24

Up$37575¢-$375

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$502.88

Value

$433.28

PnL

-$69.61

Record

52%

5172-4852 (10024)

Both legs:

Down$277.6464.1¢+$155.64

Up$225.2544.6¢-$225.25

asdcaxzCTR

Invested

$311.78

Value

—

PnL

-$292.25

Record

50%

4548-4636 (9184)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$367.41

Value

$417.83

PnL

+$50.42

Record

51%

877-855 (1732)

Both legs:

Down$237.4756.8¢+$180.36

Up$129.9449.5¢-$129.94

BoneOhioCTR

Invested

$302.98

Value

—

PnL

-$302.98

Record

70%

1807-771 (2578)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$346.16

Value

$257.51

PnL

-$88.65

Record

45%

868-1046 (1914)

Both legs:

Down$117.2145.5¢+$140.3

Up$228.9548.2¢-$228.95

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$377

Value

$444.32

PnL

+$67.32

Record

30%

579-1350 (1929)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$573.43

Value

$326.81

PnL

+$17.09

Record

51%

2506-2369 (4875)

Both legs:

Down$185.8256.9¢+$174.97

Up$157.0750.4¢-$157.88

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$354.91

Value

$315

PnL

-$39.91

Record

50%

878-869 (1747)

Both legs:

Down$265.8684.4¢+$49.14

Up$89.0536.7¢-$89.05

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$336.9

Value

$300

PnL

-$36.9

Record

52%

456-421 (877)

Both legs:

Down$23478¢+$66

Up$102.938.1¢-$102.9

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Invested

$226.09

Value

$218.94

PnL

-$7.15

Record

51%

873-850 (1723)

Both legs:

Down$91.5241.8¢+$127.43

Up$134.5836.3¢-$134.58

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100

Invested

$322.3

Value

$208.57

PnL

-$113.73

Record

48%

818-892 (1710)

Both legs:

Down$111.8953.6¢+$96.67

Up$210.466.8¢-$210.4

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$204.39

Value

$296.4

PnL

+$92.01

Record

47%

1175-1312 (2487)

Both legs:

Up$151.7871.9¢-$151.78

Down$52.6117.7¢+$243.79

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$215.13

Value

$234.71

PnL

+$23.87

Record

54%

4666-4039 (8705)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$364.5

Value

$258.97

PnL

-$105.53

Record

52%

1650-1545 (3195)

Both legs:

Down$239.8792.6¢+$19.1

Up$124.6370¢-$124.63

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 40 top traders (50%)22 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x91ca3918...58ce8a

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794756300

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

machine-earning

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Down — $1.1K

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

stepahead

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded