Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
57
Down 71%
2 arb excluded
$14.6K
$-10.1K
Smart Money Signal
40 of 57 top traders (70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.9K | 43% 342-458 (800) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 942-7 (949) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.5K | 45% 626-779 (1405) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30.08 | 53% 1576-1397 (2973) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$903.34 | 52% 3806-3541 (7347) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 62.4¢ | $715.66 | $621.85 | -$93.81 | 59% 1150-796 (1946) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 93.9¢ | $1.4K | $584.88 | -$216.88 | 52% 1650-1545 (3195) |
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 79.1¢ | $1.2K | $550.33 | +$31.46 | 55% 505-413 (918) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 65¢ | $514.05 | $524.08 | +$10.03 | 52% 5172-4852 (10024) |
BO bosona | Downavg 92.3¢ | $1.2K | $565.16 | -$26.64 | 51% 4890-4670 (9560) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.3¢ | $571.01 | $497.31 | +$2.33 | 54% 4162-3504 (7666) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 61.2¢ | $375.17 | $396.19 | +$21.02 | 55% 4601-3705 (8306) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 72¢ | $384.96 | $348.23 | -$36.73 | 50% 4548-4636 (9184) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 71.3¢ | $425.48 | $314.49 | -$110.99 | 44% 831-1045 (1876) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 40.8¢ | $416.67 | $200 | -$216.67 | 47% 1175-1312 (2487) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 40.8¢ | $280.67 | — | -$280.67 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68¢ | $136 | $200 | +$64 | |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $417.35 | $277.45 | -$139.91 | 47% 1165-1288 (2453) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59¢ | $163.68 | $277.45 | +$113.77 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39¢ | $253.68 | — | -$253.68 | |
AL almach | Downavg 94.6¢ | $519.31 | $280.04 | -$239.27 | 51% 1638-1554 (3192) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 71.4¢ | $315.35 | $312.38 | -$2.97 | 45% 868-1046 (1914) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 72.4¢ | $535.27 | $303.32 | -$71.94 | 51% 2506-2369 (4875) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 69.2¢ | $191.74 | $277.2 | +$85.47 | 52% 987-896 (1883) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97.6¢ | $221.2 | $226.54 | +$5.34 | 98% 4434-91 (4525) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 69¢ | $195.1 | $200 | +$4.9 | 52% 456-421 (877) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 72.5¢ | $220.36 | $190 | -$30.36 | 54% 4666-4039 (8705) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 55.9¢ | $156.78 | $167.86 | +$11.08 | 51% 873-850 (1723) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 70.9¢ | $137.94 | $152.14 | +$14.2 | 51% 891-849 (1740) |
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
43%
342-458 (800)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
942-7 (949)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.5K
Record
45%
626-779 (1405)
Invested
$2,977.93
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30.08
Record
53%
1576-1397 (2973)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$903.34
Record
52%
3806-3541 (7347)
Invested
$715.66
Value
$621.85
PnL
-$93.81
Record
59%
1150-796 (1946)
Invested
$1,441.24
Value
$584.88
PnL
-$216.88
Record
52%
1650-1545 (3195)
Invested
$1,158.52
Value
$550.33
PnL
+$31.46
Record
55%
505-413 (918)
Invested
$514.05
Value
$524.08
PnL
+$10.03
Record
52%
5172-4852 (10024)
Invested
$1,223.27
Value
$565.16
PnL
-$26.64
Record
51%
4890-4670 (9560)
Invested
$571.01
Value
$497.31
PnL
+$2.33
Record
54%
4162-3504 (7666)
Invested
$375.17
Value
$396.19
PnL
+$21.02
Record
55%
4601-3705 (8306)
Invested
$384.96
Value
$348.23
PnL
-$36.73
Record
50%
4548-4636 (9184)
Invested
$425.48
Value
$314.49
PnL
-$110.99
Record
44%
831-1045 (1876)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$416.67
Value
$200
PnL
-$216.67
Record
47%
1175-1312 (2487)
Both legs:
Invested
$417.35
Value
$277.45
PnL
-$139.91
Record
47%
1165-1288 (2453)
Both legs:
Invested
$519.31
Value
$280.04
PnL
-$239.27
Record
51%
1638-1554 (3192)
Invested
$315.35
Value
$312.38
PnL
-$2.97
Record
45%
868-1046 (1914)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$535.27
Value
$303.32
PnL
-$71.94
Record
51%
2506-2369 (4875)
Invested
$191.74
Value
$277.2
PnL
+$85.47
Record
52%
987-896 (1883)
Invested
$221.2
Value
$226.54
PnL
+$5.34
Record
98%
4434-91 (4525)
Invested
$195.1
Value
$200
PnL
+$4.9
Record
52%
456-421 (877)
FairValueMachineInvested
$220.36
Value
$190
PnL
-$30.36
Record
54%
4666-4039 (8705)
Invested
$156.78
Value
$167.86
PnL
+$11.08
Record
51%
873-850 (1723)
Invested
$137.94
Value
$152.14
PnL
+$14.2
Record
51%
891-849 (1740)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.5K
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
0x50f7
Down — $3.0K
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $621.85
mo-money
Down — $584.88
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $550.33
blue.birds
Down — $524.08
bosona
Down — $565.16