Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET

Resolved Up. 21% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 22%

14 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.5K

Combined PnL

$-9.3K

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 47 top traders (21%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares12,211

Combined PnL$-10.4K

Up37 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares10,049

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Down — 21%Up — 79%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barristerCTR	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.7K	43% 342-458 (800)
MA machine-earning	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	+$161.11	45% 626-779 (1405)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 52.8¢	$2.6K	—	$-2.6K	49% 2456-2514 (4970)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 33.4¢	$1.0K	—	$-1.0K	47% 1165-1288 (2453)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10.8	98% 4434-91 (4525)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 43.8¢	$511.12	$754.67	+$248.1	44% 831-1045 (1876)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 59.8¢	$712.4	$725.82	+$13.42	50% 4548-4636 (9184)
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 51.1¢	$752.41	—	-$720.73	59% 1150-796 (1946)
ST stepahead	Upavg 49.1¢	$495.5	$506.2	+$10.7	55% 4601-3705 (8306)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.8¢	$584.25	$490.04	-$1.63	54% 4162-3504 (7666)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.8¢	$260.37	—	-$250.09
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.7¢	$238.83	$490.04	+$248.46
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 40.4¢	$479.51	$615.2	+$135.69	47% 1175-1312 (2487)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.4¢	$248.6	$615.2	+$366.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.7¢	$230.91	—	-$230.91
BL blue.birds	Upavg 56.2¢	$443.1	$454.7	+$11.6	52% 5172-4852 (10024)
AL almachARB<$100	Upavg 39.3¢	$386.95	$739.96	+$353.02	51% 1638-1554 (3192)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.3¢	$290.44	$739.96	+$449.53
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.6¢	$96.51	—	-$96.51
BO bosona	Upavg 69.6¢	$393.01	$350.21	-$20.17	51% 4890-4670 (9560)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 44.2¢	$239.92	$329.98	+$90.06	51% 2506-2369 (4875)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 44¢	$239.14	$355	+$115.86	45% 868-1046 (1914)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 32.4¢	$256.08	$477.94	+$221.86	52% 1650-1545 (3195)
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.4¢	$155.04	$477.94	+$322.89
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.4¢	$101.03	—	-$101.03
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 51.4¢	$288.13	$299.48	+$11.35	34% 810-1551 (2361)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Upavg 46.3¢	$128.43	$213.1	+$84.67	47% 813-918 (1731)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 55.4¢	$203.56	$205.15	+$1.59	52% 987-896 (1883)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.4¢	$117.37	—	-$117.37
└ Up leg	Upavg 42¢	$86.19	$205.15	+$118.96
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 52.6¢	$173.31	$135.55	-$37.76	54% 4666-4039 (8705)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.6¢	$128.39	—	-$128.39
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.1¢	$44.92	$135.55	+$90.63
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Downavg 52.5¢	$150.28	$95.9	-$54.38	50% 878-869 (1747)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.7¢	$40.01	$95.9	+$55.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.5¢	$110.27	—	-$110.27
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100	Downavg 55.4¢	$121.52	$129.75	+$8.22	51% 891-849 (1740)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.4¢	$62.56	—	-$62.56
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.4¢	$58.96	$129.75	+$70.78
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 53.8¢	$86.99	$117.99	+$31	59% 1076-748 (1824)
PA PapeasyARB<$100	Downavg 55.1¢	$96.14	$112.05	+$15.91	50% 3879-3826 (7705)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.1¢	$52.76	—	-$52.76
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.7¢	$43.38	$112.05	+$68.67

arcsine-barristerCTR

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.7K

Record

43%

342-458 (800)

machine-earning

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$161.11

Record

45%

626-779 (1405)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$2,636.25

Value

—

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

49%

2456-2514 (4970)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$1,028.16

Value

—

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

47%

1165-1288 (2453)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,069.2

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.8

Record

98%

4434-91 (4525)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$511.12

Value

$754.67

PnL

+$248.1

Record

44%

831-1045 (1876)

asdcaxz

Invested

$712.4

Value

$725.82

PnL

+$13.42

Record

50%

4548-4636 (9184)

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$752.41

Value

—

PnL

-$720.73

Record

59%

1150-796 (1946)

stepahead

Invested

$495.5

Value

$506.2

PnL

+$10.7

Record

55%

4601-3705 (8306)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$584.25

Value

$490.04

PnL

-$1.63

Record

54%

4162-3504 (7666)

Both legs:

Down$260.3750.8¢-$250.09

Up$238.8348.7¢+$248.46

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$479.51

Value

$615.2

PnL

+$135.69

Record

47%

1175-1312 (2487)

Both legs:

Up$248.640.4¢+$366.6

Down$230.9164.7¢-$230.91

blue.birds

Invested

$443.1

Value

$454.7

PnL

+$11.6

Record

52%

5172-4852 (10024)

almachARB<$100

Invested

$386.95

Value

$739.96

PnL

+$353.02

Record

51%

1638-1554 (3192)

Both legs:

Up$290.4439.3¢+$449.53

Down$96.5162.6¢-$96.51

bosona

Invested

$393.01

Value

$350.21

PnL

-$20.17

Record

51%

4890-4670 (9560)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$239.92

Value

$329.98

PnL

+$90.06

Record

51%

2506-2369 (4875)

GoodFallen

Invested

$239.14

Value

$355

PnL

+$115.86

Record

45%

868-1046 (1914)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$256.08

Value

$477.94

PnL

+$221.86

Record

52%

1650-1545 (3195)

Both legs:

Up$155.0432.4¢+$322.89

Down$101.0358.4¢-$101.03

ply-pm0

Invested

$288.13

Value

$299.48

PnL

+$11.35

Record

34%

810-1551 (2361)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Invested

$128.43

Value

$213.1

PnL

+$84.67

Record

47%

813-918 (1731)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$203.56

Value

$205.15

PnL

+$1.59

Record

52%

987-896 (1883)

Both legs:

Down$117.3755.4¢-$117.37

Up$86.1942¢+$118.96

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$173.31

Value

$135.55

PnL

-$37.76

Record

54%

4666-4039 (8705)

Both legs:

Down$128.3952.6¢-$128.39

Up$44.9233.1¢+$90.63

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$150.28

Value

$95.9

PnL

-$54.38

Record

50%

878-869 (1747)

Both legs:

Up$40.0141.7¢+$55.9

Down$110.2752.5¢-$110.27

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$121.52

Value

$129.75

PnL

+$8.22

Record

51%

891-849 (1740)

Both legs:

Down$62.5655.4¢-$62.56

Up$58.9645.4¢+$70.78

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Invested

$86.99

Value

$117.99

PnL

+$31

Record

59%

1076-748 (1824)

PapeasyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$96.14

Value

$112.05

PnL

+$15.91

Record

50%

3879-3826 (7705)

Both legs:

Down$52.7655.1¢-$52.76

Up$43.3838.7¢+$68.67

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 47 top traders (21%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x273e8bd9...946fb9

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794755700

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

CTR

Down — $0

$-4.7K

machine-earning

Up — $3.8K

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

CrouchPredictions

Down — $0

hoodquant

Up — $1.1K

+$10.8

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $754.67

+$248.1

asdcaxz

Up — $725.82

+$13.42

Bonereaper

CTR

Down — $0

-$720.73

stepahead

Up — $506.2

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded