Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET

Resolved Up. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 62%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Signal

34 of 55 top traders (62%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up34 traders

Total Value$21.4K

Total Shares21,447

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Down21 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,585

Combined PnL$-2.7K

Up — 62%Down — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	+$27.62	43% 342-458 (800)
MA machine-earning	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.2K	-$292.34	45% 626-779 (1405)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 59.7¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$68.69	47% 1165-1288 (2453)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 48.8¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$318.32	59% 1150-796 (1946)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 59.9¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$125.45	44% 831-1045 (1876)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 62.1¢	$923.48	$893.63	-$29.85	52% 5172-4852 (10024)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$804.79	$812.92	+$8.13	99% 942-7 (949)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 52.3¢	$693.91	$796.4	+$102.49	50% 4548-4636 (9184)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$619.74	$626	+$6.26	98% 4434-91 (4525)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 55.1¢	$484.66	$605.04	+$144.68	45% 868-1046 (1914)
ST stepahead	Upavg 74.5¢	$663.21	$596.98	-$66.23	55% 4601-3705 (8306)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 57.8¢	$641.55	$543.41	+$46.31	34% 810-1551 (2361)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50.1¢	$625.38	$505.26	+$14.24	54% 4162-3504 (7666)
GA gansinimenCTR	Downavg 57.4¢	$459.95	—	-$459.95	52% 456-421 (877)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 52¢	$726.33	—	-$679.03	49% 2456-2514 (4970)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Upavg 64.2¢	$344.46	$512.27	+$167.81	47% 813-918 (1731)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 65.3¢	$378.62	$431.48	+$52.87	51% 877-855 (1732)
BO bosona	Upavg 81.4¢	$891.37	$429.86	-$81.63	51% 4890-4670 (9560)
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 18.2¢	$240.83	—	-$240.83	47% 1175-1312 (2487)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 39.7¢	$240.33	$318.9	+$125.81	52% 987-896 (1883)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Upavg 84.4¢	$285.9	$318.01	+$32.11	51% 891-849 (1740)
AL almach	Upavg 79¢	$327.31	$348.19	+$20.88	51% 1638-1554 (3192)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 56.2¢	$566.52	$251.76	+$30.12	51% 2506-2369 (4875)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 73.4¢	$314.24	$229.06	-$64.93	54% 4666-4039 (8705)
BoneOhio	Upavg 51.3¢	$99.34	$193.77	+$94.43	70% 1807-771 (2578)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$27.62

Record

43%

342-458 (800)

machine-earning

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$292.34

Record

45%

626-779 (1405)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,432.2

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$68.69

Record

47%

1165-1288 (2453)

Bonereaper

Invested

$1,047.44

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$318.32

Record

59%

1150-796 (1946)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$1,025.96

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$125.45

Record

44%

831-1045 (1876)

blue.birds

Invested

$923.48

Value

$893.63

PnL

-$29.85

Record

52%

5172-4852 (10024)

THG.

Invested

$804.79

Value

$812.92

PnL

+$8.13

Record

99%

942-7 (949)

asdcaxz

Invested

$693.91

Value

$796.4

PnL

+$102.49

Record

50%

4548-4636 (9184)

hoodquant

Invested

$619.74

Value

$626

PnL

+$6.26

Record

98%

4434-91 (4525)

GoodFallen

Invested

$484.66

Value

$605.04

PnL

+$144.68

Record

45%

868-1046 (1914)

stepahead

Invested

$663.21

Value

$596.98

PnL

-$66.23

Record

55%

4601-3705 (8306)

ply-pm0

Invested

$641.55

Value

$543.41

PnL

+$46.31

Record

34%

810-1551 (2361)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$625.38

Value

$505.26

PnL

+$14.24

Record

54%

4162-3504 (7666)

gansinimenCTR

Down

Invested

$459.95

Value

—

PnL

-$459.95

Record

52%

456-421 (877)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$726.33

Value

—

PnL

-$679.03

Record

49%

2456-2514 (4970)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Invested

$344.46

Value

$512.27

PnL

+$167.81

Record

47%

813-918 (1731)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$378.62

Value

$431.48

PnL

+$52.87

Record

51%

877-855 (1732)

bosona

Invested

$891.37

Value

$429.86

PnL

-$81.63

Record

51%

4890-4670 (9560)

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$240.83

Value

—

PnL

-$240.83

Record

47%

1175-1312 (2487)

wzbbb

Invested

$240.33

Value

$318.9

PnL

+$125.81

Record

52%

987-896 (1883)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Invested

$285.9

Value

$318.01

PnL

+$32.11

Record

51%

891-849 (1740)

almach

Invested

$327.31

Value

$348.19

PnL

+$20.88

Record

51%

1638-1554 (3192)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$566.52

Value

$251.76

PnL

+$30.12

Record

51%

2506-2369 (4875)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$314.24

Value

$229.06

PnL

-$64.93

Record

54%

4666-4039 (8705)

BoneOhio

Invested

$99.34

Value

$193.77

PnL

+$94.43

Record

70%

1807-771 (2578)

Smart Money Signal

34 of 55 top traders (62%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc2a0fe03...ddf529

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794755400

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Up — $4.9K

+$27.62

machine-earning

Up — $3.2K

-$292.34

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.5K

+$68.69

Bonereaper

Up — $1.4K

+$318.32

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $1.2K

+$125.45

blue.birds

Up — $893.63

-$29.85

THG.

Up — $812.92

+$8.13

asdcaxz

Up — $796.4

+$102.49

hoodquant

Up — $626

+$6.26

GoodFallen

Up — $605.04

+$144.68

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