Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
Resolved Up. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
63
Up 56%
2 arb excluded
$28.6K
$-4.5K
Smart Money Signal
35 of 63 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed28 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $8.8K | +$0 | 55% 505-413 (918) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$0 | 43% 342-458 (800) |
MA machine-earning | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $4.0K | +$0 | 45% 626-779 (1405) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$26.45 | 99% 942-7 (949) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 51.5¢ | $1.3K | — | $-1.3K | 59% 1150-796 (1946) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 42.5¢ | $1.0K | — | $-1.0K | 47% 1165-1288 (2453) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 46.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$84.26 | 52% 456-421 (877) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 39.7¢ | $861.89 | $1.1K | +$270.85 | 44% 831-1045 (1876) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 55.5¢ | $888.34 | $866.37 | -$21.97 | 55% 4601-3705 (8306) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Downavg 60.7¢ | $768.14 | — | -$768.14 | 52% 5172-4852 (10024) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 55.2¢ | $1.8K | $746.62 | +$1.2K | 49% 2456-2514 (4970) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 48.2¢ | $322.55 | $669.39 | +$346.84 | 51% 2151-2062 (4213) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 48.5¢ | $394.61 | $535.59 | +$150.14 | 50% 4548-4636 (9184) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 64.2¢ | $505.34 | $522.79 | +$17.45 | 49% 3600-3701 (7301) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.9¢ | $177.29 | $522.79 | +$345.5 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64.2¢ | $328.05 | — | -$328.05 | |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 47.2¢ | $528.67 | — | -$528.67 | 34% 810-1551 (2361) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 52.7¢ | $686.51 | — | -$484.34 | 54% 4162-3504 (7666) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 50.7¢ | $431.09 | — | -$431.09 | 45% 868-1046 (1914) |
BO bosonaCTR | Downavg 85.1¢ | $1.6K | — | $-1.0K | 51% 4890-4670 (9560) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 58.3¢ | $307.23 | $319.23 | +$12 | 52% 987-896 (1883) |
 ohioismCTR | Downavg 33.4¢ | $281.28 | — | -$281.28 | 48% 2407-2652 (5059) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 92.6¢ | $455.73 | $286.31 | -$166.43 | 70% 1807-771 (2578) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335CTR | Downavg 57.8¢ | $196.4 | — | -$196.4 | 51% 877-855 (1732) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 41.1¢ | $256.28 | $214.7 | +$49.05 | 51% 2506-2369 (4875) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 67.4¢ | $263.91 | $200 | -$60.92 | 54% 4666-4039 (8705) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 76.5¢ | $183.23 | — | -$183.23 | 47% 1175-1312 (2487) |
Invested
$8,775
Value
$8.8K
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
505-413 (918)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
342-458 (800)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
626-779 (1405)
Invested
$2,618.32
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$26.45
Record
99%
942-7 (949)
Invested
$1,335.48
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
59%
1150-796 (1946)
Invested
$1,036.72
Value
—
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
47%
1165-1288 (2453)
Invested
$1,086.27
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$84.26
Record
52%
456-421 (877)
Invested
$861.89
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$270.85
Record
44%
831-1045 (1876)
Invested
$888.34
Value
$866.37
PnL
-$21.97
Record
55%
4601-3705 (8306)
Invested
$768.14
Value
—
PnL
-$768.14
Record
52%
5172-4852 (10024)
Invested
$1,789.05
Value
$746.62
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
49%
2456-2514 (4970)
Invested
$322.55
Value
$669.39
PnL
+$346.84
Record
51%
2151-2062 (4213)
Invested
$394.61
Value
$535.59
PnL
+$150.14
Record
50%
4548-4636 (9184)
Invested
$505.34
Value
$522.79
PnL
+$17.45
Record
49%
3600-3701 (7301)
Both legs:
Invested
$528.67
Value
—
PnL
-$528.67
Record
34%
810-1551 (2361)
Invested
$686.51
Value
—
PnL
-$484.34
Record
54%
4162-3504 (7666)
Invested
$431.09
Value
—
PnL
-$431.09
Record
45%
868-1046 (1914)
Invested
$1,649.24
Value
—
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
51%
4890-4670 (9560)
Invested
$307.23
Value
$319.23
PnL
+$12
Record
52%
987-896 (1883)
ohioismCTRInvested
$281.28
Value
—
PnL
-$281.28
Record
48%
2407-2652 (5059)
BoneOhioInvested
$455.73
Value
$286.31
PnL
-$166.43
Record
70%
1807-771 (2578)
Invested
$196.4
Value
—
PnL
-$196.4
Record
51%
877-855 (1732)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$256.28
Value
$214.7
PnL
+$49.05
Record
51%
2506-2369 (4875)
FairValueMachineInvested
$263.91
Value
$200
PnL
-$60.92
Record
54%
4666-4039 (8705)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$183.23
Value
—
PnL
-$183.23
Record
47%
1175-1312 (2487)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $8.8K
arcsine-barrister
Up — $5.0K
machine-earning
Up — $4.0K
THG.
Up — $2.6K
Bonereaper
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
gansinimen
Up — $1.2K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $1.1K
stepahead
Up — $866.37
blue.birds
CTRDown — $0