Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET

Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 68%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.3K

Combined PnL

$-16.0K

Smart Money Signal

Down

39 of 57 top traders (68%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down39 traders

Total Value$19.6K

Total Shares19,588

Combined PnL+$450.53

Up18 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares19,898

Combined PnL$-16.4K

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x82aad706e75a6cd9dac807109649a6ded01d2777-1794136139118	Downavg 98.4¢	$9.8K	$10.0K	+$156.48	51% 26-25 (51)
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$9.0K	—	$-7.7K	55% 505-413 (918)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.5K	43% 342-458 (800)
MA machine-earningCTR	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-3.4K	45% 626-779 (1405)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 75.8¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$45.17	59% 1150-796 (1946)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$950	$903.6	-$8.96	52% 3806-3541 (7347)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$451.8	$903.6	+$462.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$470	—	-$471.8
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 75.9¢	$816.07	$770.07	-$29.42	52% 987-896 (1883)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 79.8¢	$737.09	$694.91	-$42.17	52% 5172-4852 (10024)
machinelearned	Downavg 69.4¢	$421.54	$594.28	+$172.74	47% 1175-1312 (2487)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$565.29	$571	+$5.71	98% 4434-91 (4525)
ST stepahead	Downavg 70.3¢	$519.67	$545.92	+$26.25	55% 4601-3705 (8306)
BO bosona	Downavg 99¢	$1.2K	$499.99	+$120.5	51% 4890-4670 (9560)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 53.4¢	$575.03	$473.3	+$2.62	54% 4162-3504 (7666)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 30.3¢	$406.13	$308.38	-$97.75	47% 1165-1288 (2453)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.8¢	$202.99	$308.38	+$105.39
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.3¢	$203.14	—	-$203.14
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 76.5¢	$356.06	$335.13	-$19.13	50% 4548-4636 (9184)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 79.8¢	$367.24	$278.2	-$89.04	44% 831-1045 (1876)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$299.29	$302.31	+$3.02	99% 942-7 (949)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 73.2¢	$295.78	$291.02	-$4.76	49% 3600-3701 (7301)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 72.1¢	$227.56	$221.1	-$6.46	52% 456-421 (877)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.1¢	$159.39	$221.1	+$61.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.9¢	$68.16	—	-$68.16
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 80.4¢	$620.11	$200	-$37.33	51% 2506-2369 (4875)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 70.9¢	$160.6	$192.34	+$31.74	51% 877-855 (1732)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 77.7¢	$171.97	$172.51	+$0.54	45% 868-1046 (1914)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Downavg 60.5¢	$131.7	$161.47	+$29.76	51% 873-850 (1723)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 80¢	$128.06	$160	+$31.94	42% 872-1190 (2062)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 75¢	$160.88	$155.66	-$5.22	34% 810-1551 (2361)

0x82aad706e75a6cd9dac807109649a6ded01d2777-1794136139118

Down

Invested

$9,843.52

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$156.48

Record

51%

26-25 (51)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,995

Value

—

PnL

$-7.7K

Record

55%

505-413 (918)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

43%

342-458 (800)

machine-earningCTR

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

45%

626-779 (1405)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,895.29

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$45.17

Record

59%

1150-796 (1946)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$950

Value

$903.6

PnL

-$8.96

Record

52%

3806-3541 (7347)

Both legs:

Down$451.850¢+$462.84

Up$47050¢-$471.8

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$816.07

Value

$770.07

PnL

-$29.42

Record

52%

987-896 (1883)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$737.09

Value

$694.91

PnL

-$42.17

Record

52%

5172-4852 (10024)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$421.54

Value

$594.28

PnL

+$172.74

Record

47%

1175-1312 (2487)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$565.29

Value

$571

PnL

+$5.71

Record

98%

4434-91 (4525)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$519.67

Value

$545.92

PnL

+$26.25

Record

55%

4601-3705 (8306)

bosona

Down

Invested

$1,188.43

Value

$499.99

PnL

+$120.5

Record

51%

4890-4670 (9560)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$575.03

Value

$473.3

PnL

+$2.62

Record

54%

4162-3504 (7666)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$406.13

Value

$308.38

PnL

-$97.75

Record

47%

1165-1288 (2453)

Both legs:

Down$202.9965.8¢+$105.39

Up$203.1430.3¢-$203.14

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$356.06

Value

$335.13

PnL

-$19.13

Record

50%

4548-4636 (9184)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$367.24

Value

$278.2

PnL

-$89.04

Record

44%

831-1045 (1876)

THG.

Down

Invested

$299.29

Value

$302.31

PnL

+$3.02

Record

99%

942-7 (949)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$295.78

Value

$291.02

PnL

-$4.76

Record

49%

3600-3701 (7301)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$227.56

Value

$221.1

PnL

-$6.46

Record

52%

456-421 (877)

Both legs:

Down$159.3972.1¢+$61.7

Up$68.1632.9¢-$68.16

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$620.11

Value

$200

PnL

-$37.33

Record

51%

2506-2369 (4875)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$160.6

Value

$192.34

PnL

+$31.74

Record

51%

877-855 (1732)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$171.97

Value

$172.51

PnL

+$0.54

Record

45%

868-1046 (1914)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Down

Invested

$131.7

Value

$161.47

PnL

+$29.76

Record

51%

873-850 (1723)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$128.06

Value

$160

PnL

+$31.94

Record

42%

872-1190 (2062)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$160.88

Value

$155.66

PnL

-$5.22

Record

34%

810-1551 (2361)

Smart Money Signal

Down

39 of 57 top traders (68%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1d65463b...0c2306

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794754800

Traders in this Market

0x82aad706e75a6cd9dac807109649a6ded01d2777-1794136139118

Down — $10.0K

+$156.48

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $0

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

machine-earning

Up — $0

Bonereaper

Down — $1.9K

-$45.17

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$8.96

wzbbb

Down — $770.07

-$29.42

blue.birds

Down — $694.91

-$42.17

machinelearned

Down — $594.28

+$172.74

hoodquant

Down — $571

+$5.71

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