Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 56%

18 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

$-17.5K

Smart Money Signal

23 of 41 top traders (56%)18 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up23 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares18,676

Combined PnL$-18.1K

Down18 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,305

Combined PnL+$616.41

Up — 56%Down — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.9K	—	$-7.7K	55% 505-413 (918)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.9K	43% 342-458 (800)
MA machine-earningCTR	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-3.6K	45% 626-779 (1405)
BO BonereaperCTR	Upavg 67.3¢	$977.11	—	-$971.54	59% 1150-796 (1946)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$10.85	98% 4434-91 (4525)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 33.1¢	$422.7	$664.25	+$241.55	47% 1165-1288 (2453)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 63.1¢	$709.34	$580.1	-$129.24	44% 831-1045 (1876)
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.4¢	$216.69	$580.1	+$363.41
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.1¢	$492.65	—	-$492.65
AS asdcaxzCTR	Upavg 64.7¢	$385.64	—	-$354.95	50% 4548-4636 (9184)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 53¢	$602.14	$491.48	-$10.47	54% 4162-3504 (7666)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.7¢	$239.2	$491.48	+$243.27
└ Up leg	Upavg 53¢	$268.02	—	-$253.74
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 59.1¢	$437.42	$471.62	+$34.2	49% 3600-3701 (7301)
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.3¢	$142.99	$471.62	+$328.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.1¢	$294.44	—	-$294.44
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 39.5¢	$342.75	$333.64	+$101.99	51% 2506-2369 (4875)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 58.8¢	$333.32	$275.04	-$58.28	55% 4601-3705 (8306)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.8¢	$241.84	—	-$241.84
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.3¢	$91.47	$275.04	+$183.57
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 72.4¢	$312.4	$400	+$87.6	47% 1175-1312 (2487)
└ Down leg	Downavg 37¢	$148	$400	+$252
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.4¢	$164.4	—	-$164.4
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 41.4¢	$293.7	$414.65	+$120.95	45% 868-1046 (1914)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.4¢	$171.74	$414.65	+$242.91
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.1¢	$121.96	—	-$121.96
BO bosonaARB<$100	Upavg 76.7¢	$515.59	$145.89	-$369.69	51% 4890-4670 (9560)
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.7¢	$434.77	—	-$434.77
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.4¢	$80.82	$145.89	+$65.08
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 70.1¢	$366.4	$306.59	-$59.81	52% 5172-4852 (10024)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44¢	$134.86	$306.59	+$171.73
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.1¢	$231.54	—	-$231.54
GA gansinimenCTR	Upavg 32.7¢	$189.04	—	-$189.04	52% 456-421 (877)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 48.6¢	$253.35	$256.26	+$13.24	52% 987-896 (1883)
AL almach	Downavg 49.7¢	$142.73	$195.87	+$53.15	51% 1638-1554 (3192)
ohioismARB<$100	Downavg 38.2¢	$130.76	$191.2	+$60.44	48% 2407-2652 (5059)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.2¢	$73.06	$191.2	+$118.14
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.2¢	$57.7	—	-$57.7
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 78.7¢	$179.04	$154.1	-$24.94	52% 1650-1545 (3195)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.5¢	$56.19	$154.1	+$97.91
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.7¢	$122.85	—	-$122.85
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 58.2¢	$116.6	$135.74	+$19.14	54% 4666-4039 (8705)
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.1¢	$50.35	$135.74	+$85.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.2¢	$66.26	—	-$66.26
PA PapeasyARB<$100	Upavg 57.4¢	$118.23	$150.06	+$31.83	50% 3879-3826 (7705)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.4¢	$64.97	—	-$64.97
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.5¢	$53.26	$150.06	+$96.8
AS asdaefef	Downavg 74.5¢	$119.4	$124.12	+$9.42	66% 3908-1973 (5881)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 70.8¢	$110.04	$123.38	+$14.33	62% 4574-2778 (7352)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,877

Value

—

PnL

$-7.7K

Record

55%

505-413 (918)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.9K

Record

43%

342-458 (800)

machine-earningCTR

Invested

$4,000

Value

—

PnL

$-3.6K

Record

45%

626-779 (1405)

BonereaperCTR

Invested

$977.11

Value

—

PnL

-$971.54

Record

59%

1150-796 (1946)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,026.58

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10.85

Record

98%

4434-91 (4525)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$422.7

Value

$664.25

PnL

+$241.55

Record

47%

1165-1288 (2453)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$709.34

Value

$580.1

PnL

-$129.24

Record

44%

831-1045 (1876)

Both legs:

Down$216.6937.4¢+$363.41

Up$492.6563.1¢-$492.65

asdcaxzCTR

Invested

$385.64

Value

—

PnL

-$354.95

Record

50%

4548-4636 (9184)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$602.14

Value

$491.48

PnL

-$10.47

Record

54%

4162-3504 (7666)

Both legs:

Down$239.248.7¢+$243.27

Up$268.0253¢-$253.74

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$437.42

Value

$471.62

PnL

+$34.2

Record

49%

3600-3701 (7301)

Both legs:

Down$142.9930.3¢+$328.63

Up$294.4459.1¢-$294.44

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$342.75

Value

$333.64

PnL

+$101.99

Record

51%

2506-2369 (4875)

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$333.32

Value

$275.04

PnL

-$58.28

Record

55%

4601-3705 (8306)

Both legs:

Up$241.8458.8¢-$241.84

Down$91.4733.3¢+$183.57

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$312.4

Value

$400

PnL

+$87.6

Record

47%

1175-1312 (2487)

Both legs:

Invested

$293.7

Value

$414.65

PnL

+$120.95

Record

45%

868-1046 (1914)

Both legs:

Down$171.7441.4¢+$242.91

Up$121.9661.1¢-$121.96

bosonaARB<$100

Invested

$515.59

Value

$145.89

PnL

-$369.69

Record

51%

4890-4670 (9560)

Both legs:

Up$434.7776.7¢-$434.77

Down$80.8255.4¢+$65.08

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$366.4

Value

$306.59

PnL

-$59.81

Record

52%

5172-4852 (10024)

Both legs:

Down$134.8644¢+$171.73

Up$231.5470.1¢-$231.54

gansinimenCTR

Invested

$189.04

Value

—

PnL

-$189.04

Record

52%

456-421 (877)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$253.35

Value

$256.26

PnL

+$13.24

Record

52%

987-896 (1883)

almach

Down

Invested

$142.73

Value

$195.87

PnL

+$53.15

Record

51%

1638-1554 (3192)

ohioismARB<$100

Down

Invested

$130.76

Value

$191.2

PnL

+$60.44

Record

48%

2407-2652 (5059)

Both legs:

Down$73.0638.2¢+$118.14

Up$57.750.2¢-$57.7

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$179.04

Value

$154.1

PnL

-$24.94

Record

52%

1650-1545 (3195)

Both legs:

Down$56.1936.5¢+$97.91

Up$122.8578.7¢-$122.85

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$116.6

Value

$135.74

PnL

+$19.14

Record

54%

4666-4039 (8705)

Both legs:

Down$50.3537.1¢+$85.4

Up$66.2658.2¢-$66.26

PapeasyARB<$100

Invested

$118.23

Value

$150.06

PnL

+$31.83

Record

50%

3879-3826 (7705)

Both legs:

Up$64.9757.4¢-$64.97

Down$53.2635.5¢+$96.8

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$119.4

Value

$124.12

PnL

+$9.42

Record

66%

3908-1973 (5881)

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$110.04

Value

$123.38

PnL

+$14.33

Record

62%

4574-2778 (7352)

Smart Money Signal

23 of 41 top traders (56%)18 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xf6fa8858...0ccfd2

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794754500

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $0

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

machine-earning

Up — $0

Bonereaper

Up — $0

hoodquant

Down — $1.0K

+$10.85

CrouchPredictions

Down — $664.25

+$241.55

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

asdcaxz

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$34.2

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