Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET

Resolved Up. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 82%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.0K

Combined PnL

-$319.13

Smart Money Signal

45 of 55 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up45 traders

Total Value$27.9K

Total Shares27,902

Combined PnL+$432.82

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,729

Combined PnL-$751.95

Up — 82%Down — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.6K	$7.2K	+$55.69	55% 505-413 (918)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	+$10.2	43% 342-458 (800)
MA machine-earning	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	+$90.55	45% 626-779 (1405)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35	99% 942-7 (949)
SO soswald1	Upavg 50¢	$950	$945	-$1.8	52% 3806-3541 (7347)
BO bosona	Upavg 77.8¢	$842.14	$986.29	+$144.16	51% 4890-4670 (9560)
machinelearned	Upavg 73.6¢	$639.66	$701.68	+$62.02	47% 1175-1312 (2487)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 66.2¢	$618.03	$505.85	-$112.17	59% 1150-796 (1946)
AL almach	Upavg 93.6¢	$529.99	$545.35	+$15.36	51% 1638-1554 (3192)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 51.4¢	$550.88	$492.83	-$3.08	54% 4162-3504 (7666)
MO mo-money	Upavg 88.5¢	$411.98	$465.67	+$53.69	52% 1650-1545 (3195)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 81.6¢	$342.19	$352.35	+$10.16	49% 3600-3701 (7301)
ST stepahead	Upavg 72.3¢	$346.31	$329.93	-$16.38	55% 4601-3705 (8306)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 70.2¢	$464.09	$307.5	-$58.33	51% 2506-2369 (4875)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 85.3¢	$282.42	$300.97	+$22.04	52% 5172-4852 (10024)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 70.4¢	$311.69	$247.07	-$64.62	44% 831-1045 (1876)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 74.7¢	$214.62	$231.65	+$17.03	45% 868-1046 (1914)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 63.7¢	$204.35	$207.76	+$3.92	50% 4548-4636 (9184)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 69¢	$149.6	$199.02	+$49.42	54% 4666-4039 (8705)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 45.9¢	$308.63	—	-$308.63	47% 1165-1288 (2453)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 77.1¢	$141.84	$125.49	-$16.35	51% 877-855 (1732)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 87¢	$136.79	$130.86	-$5.93	66% 3908-1973 (5881)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 82.2¢	$325.69	$128.9	-$2.03	34% 810-1551 (2361)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 63.5¢	$104.31	$125.39	+$21.07	52% 987-896 (1883)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 84.3¢	$97.28	$104.3	+$7.02	53% 1026-913 (1939)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,619

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$55.69

Record

55%

505-413 (918)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$10.2

Record

43%

342-458 (800)

machine-earning

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$90.55

Record

45%

626-779 (1405)

THG.

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35

Record

99%

942-7 (949)

soswald1

Invested

$950

Value

$945

PnL

-$1.8

Record

52%

3806-3541 (7347)

bosona

Invested

$842.14

Value

$986.29

PnL

+$144.16

Record

51%

4890-4670 (9560)

machinelearned

Invested

$639.66

Value

$701.68

PnL

+$62.02

Record

47%

1175-1312 (2487)

Bonereaper

Invested

$618.03

Value

$505.85

PnL

-$112.17

Record

59%

1150-796 (1946)

almach

Invested

$529.99

Value

$545.35

PnL

+$15.36

Record

51%

1638-1554 (3192)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$550.88

Value

$492.83

PnL

-$3.08

Record

54%

4162-3504 (7666)

mo-money

Invested

$411.98

Value

$465.67

PnL

+$53.69

Record

52%

1650-1545 (3195)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$342.19

Value

$352.35

PnL

+$10.16

Record

49%

3600-3701 (7301)

stepahead

Invested

$346.31

Value

$329.93

PnL

-$16.38

Record

55%

4601-3705 (8306)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$464.09

Value

$307.5

PnL

-$58.33

Record

51%

2506-2369 (4875)

blue.birds

Invested

$282.42

Value

$300.97

PnL

+$22.04

Record

52%

5172-4852 (10024)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$311.69

Value

$247.07

PnL

-$64.62

Record

44%

831-1045 (1876)

GoodFallen

Invested

$214.62

Value

$231.65

PnL

+$17.03

Record

45%

868-1046 (1914)

asdcaxz

Invested

$204.35

Value

$207.76

PnL

+$3.92

Record

50%

4548-4636 (9184)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$149.6

Value

$199.02

PnL

+$49.42

Record

54%

4666-4039 (8705)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$308.63

Value

—

PnL

-$308.63

Record

47%

1165-1288 (2453)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$141.84

Value

$125.49

PnL

-$16.35

Record

51%

877-855 (1732)

asdaefef

Invested

$136.79

Value

$130.86

PnL

-$5.93

Record

66%

3908-1973 (5881)

ply-pm0

Invested

$325.69

Value

$128.9

PnL

-$2.03

Record

34%

810-1551 (2361)

wzbbb

Invested

$104.31

Value

$125.39

PnL

+$21.07

Record

52%

987-896 (1883)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$97.28

Value

$104.3

PnL

+$7.02

Record

53%

1026-913 (1939)

Smart Money Signal

45 of 55 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xae95411f...64ad7a

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794754200

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $7.2K

+$55.69

arcsine-barrister

Up — $4.9K

+$10.2

machine-earning

Up — $3.8K

+$90.55

THG.

Up — $3.5K

+$35

soswald1

Up — $945

-$1.8

bosona

Up — $986.29

+$144.16

machinelearned

Up — $701.68

+$62.02

Bonereaper

Up — $505.85

-$112.17

almach

Up — $545.35

+$15.36

ByteBadger92

Up — $492.83

-$3.08

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