Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
71
Down 79%
4 arb excluded
$13.6K
$-12.6K
Smart Money Signal
49 of 71 top traders (69%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%44 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $9.0K | — | $-7.8K | 55% 505-413 (918) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.6K | 43% 342-458 (800) |
MA machine-earning | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $3.4K | -$70.34 | 45% 626-779 (1405) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 90.3¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | +$15.01 | 52% 1650-1545 (3195) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $935 | -$1.85 | 52% 3806-3541 (7347) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 70.3¢ | $595.97 | $783.85 | +$187.88 | 59% 1150-796 (1946) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 85.4¢ | $735.86 | $644.45 | -$91.41 | 44% 831-1045 (1876) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 75.7¢ | $531.49 | $652.38 | +$120.89 | 47% 1165-1288 (2453) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 89.5¢ | $582.07 | $542.1 | -$11.47 | 50% 4548-4636 (9184) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 55.9¢ | $597.2 | $492.83 | +$3.33 | 54% 4162-3504 (7666) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 69.5¢ | $567.04 | $408.01 | +$4.77 | 49% 2456-2514 (4970) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69.5¢ | $283.61 | $408.01 | +$147.01 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 20.1¢ | $142.24 | — | -$142.24 | |
ST stepahead | Downavg 78.4¢ | $396.71 | $429.8 | +$33.09 | 55% 4601-3705 (8306) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 84.9¢ | $415.45 | $399.98 | -$14.88 | 52% 456-421 (877) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 84.1¢ | $314.44 | $322.76 | +$8.31 | 49% 3600-3701 (7301) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 85.5¢ | $312.23 | $281.32 | -$30.91 | 52% 5172-4852 (10024) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 88¢ | $293.72 | $266.23 | -$27.49 | 34% 810-1551 (2361) |
HS Hsilverbasher | Downavg 80¢ | $165.64 | $207.13 | +$41.5 | 51% 409-398 (807) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $182.61 | $184.45 | +$1.84 | 99% 942-7 (949) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 87.2¢ | $199.78 | $141.37 | -$58.41 | 51% 2506-2369 (4875) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 87.2¢ | $123.27 | $141.37 | +$18.1 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 27.6¢ | $76.51 | — | -$76.51 | |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 83.9¢ | $155.72 | $175 | +$19.28 | 48% 2509-2762 (5271) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 78¢ | $168.98 | $153.5 | -$15.48 | 45% 868-1046 (1914) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 90.3¢ | $126.86 | $120.13 | -$6.73 | 53% 1026-913 (1939) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 73.6¢ | $112.02 | $130.24 | +$19.22 | 52% 987-896 (1883) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 47.6¢ | $433.24 | — | -$433.24 | 51% 2151-2062 (4213) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 87.3¢ | $124.54 | $94.5 | -$30.04 | 47% 813-918 (1731) |
Invested
$8,953
Value
—
PnL
$-7.8K
Record
55%
505-413 (918)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.6K
Record
43%
342-458 (800)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$3.4K
PnL
-$70.34
Record
45%
626-779 (1405)
Invested
$1,897.66
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$15.01
Record
52%
1650-1545 (3195)
Invested
$950
Value
$935
PnL
-$1.85
Record
52%
3806-3541 (7347)
Invested
$595.97
Value
$783.85
PnL
+$187.88
Record
59%
1150-796 (1946)
Invested
$735.86
Value
$644.45
PnL
-$91.41
Record
44%
831-1045 (1876)
Invested
$531.49
Value
$652.38
PnL
+$120.89
Record
47%
1165-1288 (2453)
Invested
$582.07
Value
$542.1
PnL
-$11.47
Record
50%
4548-4636 (9184)
Invested
$597.2
Value
$492.83
PnL
+$3.33
Record
54%
4162-3504 (7666)
Invested
$567.04
Value
$408.01
PnL
+$4.77
Record
49%
2456-2514 (4970)
Both legs:
Invested
$396.71
Value
$429.8
PnL
+$33.09
Record
55%
4601-3705 (8306)
Invested
$415.45
Value
$399.98
PnL
-$14.88
Record
52%
456-421 (877)
Invested
$314.44
Value
$322.76
PnL
+$8.31
Record
49%
3600-3701 (7301)
Invested
$312.23
Value
$281.32
PnL
-$30.91
Record
52%
5172-4852 (10024)
Invested
$293.72
Value
$266.23
PnL
-$27.49
Record
34%
810-1551 (2361)
Invested
$165.64
Value
$207.13
PnL
+$41.5
Record
51%
409-398 (807)
Invested
$182.61
Value
$184.45
PnL
+$1.84
Record
99%
942-7 (949)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$199.78
Value
$141.37
PnL
-$58.41
Record
51%
2506-2369 (4875)
Both legs:
Invested
$155.72
Value
$175
PnL
+$19.28
Record
48%
2509-2762 (5271)
Invested
$168.98
Value
$153.5
PnL
-$15.48
Record
45%
868-1046 (1914)
Invested
$126.86
Value
$120.13
PnL
-$6.73
Record
53%
1026-913 (1939)
Invested
$112.02
Value
$130.24
PnL
+$19.22
Record
52%
987-896 (1883)
Invested
$433.24
Value
—
PnL
-$433.24
Record
51%
2151-2062 (4213)
Invested
$124.54
Value
$94.5
PnL
-$30.04
Record
47%
813-918 (1731)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
machine-earning
Down — $3.4K
mo-money
Down — $1.8K
soswald1
Down — $935
Bonereaper
Down — $783.85
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $644.45
CrouchPredictions
Down — $652.38
asdcaxz
Down — $542.1
ByteBadger92
Down — $492.83