Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET

Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 68%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.7K

Combined PnL

$726.98

Smart Money Signal

Down

39 of 57 top traders (68%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down39 traders

Total Value$29.9K

Total Shares29,942

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Up18 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,412

Combined PnL-$844.33

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 50¢	$8.5K	$7.6K	-$1.6	55% 502-409 (911)
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	+$44.09	43% 336-452 (788)
MA machine-earning	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	+$128.21	45% 622-771 (1393)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30	70% 1793-760 (2553)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 99¢	$2.4K	$2.1K	-$288.43	51% 2140-2046 (4186)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 60.5¢	$896.93	$1.1K	+$187.13	47% 1156-1281 (2437)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$929.61	$939	+$9.39	98% 4397-90 (4487)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 50.3¢	$658.08	$807.69	+$155.07	59% 1142-792 (1934)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 50.4¢	$264	$523.36	+$259.36	49% 2434-2489 (4923)
ST stepahead	Downavg 54¢	$458.32	$505.64	+$47.31	55% 4588-3702 (8290)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 54.3¢	$619.81	$503.75	+$12.64	54% 4124-3478 (7602)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 39.7¢	$527.53	—	-$487.03	44% 824-1040 (1864)
AL almach	Downavg 99¢	$899.84	$500	+$92.52	51% 1628-1542 (3170)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 64.2¢	$423.43	$444.49	+$21.06	50% 4528-4614 (9142)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 58.8¢	$367.85	$411.4	+$43.55	34% 806-1543 (2349)
BO bosona	Downavg 66.3¢	$271.45	$403.56	+$132.11	51% 4881-4659 (9540)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 43.1¢	$276.34	$241.4	-$34.95	45% 864-1038 (1902)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.1¢	$163.15	—	-$163.15
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.9¢	$113.19	$241.4	+$128.2
BL blue.birds	Downavg 51.2¢	$261.41	$285.66	+$29.1	52% 5163-4842 (10005)
MO mo-money	Downavg 61.7¢	$161.19	$257.2	+$96.02	52% 1640-1534 (3174)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 43.6¢	$179.48	$319.47	+$140	47% 1172-1304 (2476)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.6¢	$139.18	$319.47	+$180.29
└ Up leg	Upavg 28¢	$40.3	—	-$40.3
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 45.1¢	$119.84	$218.16	+$98.32	50% 874-861 (1735)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 48.1¢	$323.27	$207.6	+$120.69	52% 2495-2347 (4842)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Downavg 71.1¢	$166.2	$211.12	+$44.92	51% 870-841 (1711)
OhioAI	Downavg 51.1¢	$97.4	$130.5	+$33.1	50% 852-851 (1703)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Downavg 53¢	$89.01	$116.1	+$27.09	49% 928-961 (1889)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down

Invested

$8,530

Value

$7.6K

PnL

-$1.6

Record

55%

502-409 (911)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$44.09

Record

43%

336-452 (788)

machine-earning

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$128.21

Record

45%

622-771 (1393)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$2,970

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30

Record

70%

1793-760 (2553)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$2,419.43

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$288.43

Record

51%

2140-2046 (4186)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$896.93

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$187.13

Record

47%

1156-1281 (2437)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$929.61

Value

$939

PnL

+$9.39

Record

98%

4397-90 (4487)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$658.08

Value

$807.69

PnL

+$155.07

Record

59%

1142-792 (1934)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$264

Value

$523.36

PnL

+$259.36

Record

49%

2434-2489 (4923)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$458.32

Value

$505.64

PnL

+$47.31

Record

55%

4588-3702 (8290)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$619.81

Value

$503.75

PnL

+$12.64

Record

54%

4124-3478 (7602)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$527.53

Value

—

PnL

-$487.03

Record

44%

824-1040 (1864)

almach

Down

Invested

$899.84

Value

$500

PnL

+$92.52

Record

51%

1628-1542 (3170)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$423.43

Value

$444.49

PnL

+$21.06

Record

50%

4528-4614 (9142)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$367.85

Value

$411.4

PnL

+$43.55

Record

34%

806-1543 (2349)

bosona

Down

Invested

$271.45

Value

$403.56

PnL

+$132.11

Record

51%

4881-4659 (9540)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$276.34

Value

$241.4

PnL

-$34.95

Record

45%

864-1038 (1902)

Both legs:

Up$163.1543.1¢-$163.15

Down$113.1946.9¢+$128.2

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$261.41

Value

$285.66

PnL

+$29.1

Record

52%

5163-4842 (10005)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$161.19

Value

$257.2

PnL

+$96.02

Record

52%

1640-1534 (3174)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$179.48

Value

$319.47

PnL

+$140

Record

47%

1172-1304 (2476)

Both legs:

Down$139.1843.6¢+$180.29

Up$40.328¢-$40.3

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$119.84

Value

$218.16

PnL

+$98.32

Record

50%

874-861 (1735)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$323.27

Value

$207.6

PnL

+$120.69

Record

52%

2495-2347 (4842)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Down

Invested

$166.2

Value

$211.12

PnL

+$44.92

Record

51%

870-841 (1711)

OhioAI

Down

Invested

$97.4

Value

$130.5

PnL

+$33.1

Record

50%

852-851 (1703)

peepeepoopoo24

Down

Invested

$89.01

Value

$116.1

PnL

+$27.09

Record

49%

928-961 (1889)

Smart Money Signal

Down

39 of 57 top traders (68%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x753fc182...0abef0

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794753300

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down — $7.6K

-$1.6

arcsine-barrister

Down — $4.9K

+$44.09

machine-earning

Down — $3.8K

+$128.21

BoneOhio

Down — $3.0K

+$30

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $2.1K

-$288.43

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.1K

+$187.13

hoodquant

Down — $939

+$9.39

Bonereaper

Down — $807.69

+$155.07

uninformedfloww

Down — $523.36

+$259.36

stepahead

Down — $505.64

+$47.31

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