Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET

31 of 58 top Polymarket traders hold Down (53%) · Down at 100¢ · $31K held · ended Nov 15

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 53%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.7K

Combined PnL

-$267.82

Smart Money Entry

59.7¢ → 100¢

+68% since entry · 31 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

31 of 58 top traders (53%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed27 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down31 traders

Total Value$21.9K

Total Shares22,604

Combined PnL+$4.66

Up27 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares5,394

Combined PnL-$272.48

Down — 53%Up — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 50¢	$9.0K	$7.6K	+$87.98	55% 497-402 (899)
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	+$83.23	43% 332-444 (776)
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.6K	-$133.67	45% 617-764 (1381)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.8K	$2.7K	+$826.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.8K	$882.49	-$960.65
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 99¢	$2.5K	$2.0K	-$535.71	51% 2128-2037 (4165)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 47.1¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$339.17	59% 1137-785 (1922)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 59.7¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$3.11	52% 5154-4832 (9986)
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 50¢	$950	$902.61	-$18.17	52% 3756-3495 (7251)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 24.6¢	$646.49	$844.11	+$197.62	48% 1151-1270 (2421)
AL almach	Downavg 82.1¢	$889.77	$796.2	-$93.56	51% 1622-1530 (3152)
MO mo-money	Downavg 82.9¢	$880.35	$743.62	-$136.73	52% 1628-1527 (3155)
ST stepahead	Downavg 54.9¢	$531.7	$593.77	+$62.07	55% 4579-3695 (8274)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 83¢	$619.43	$527.44	-$91.99	47% 1167-1297 (2464)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 43.6¢	$452.24	$510.14	+$57.9	44% 821-1031 (1852)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.6¢	$227.16	$393.73	+$166.57
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.4¢	$225.08	$116.41	-$108.67
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 49.9¢	$588.74	$489.77	+$2.36	54% 4094-3445 (7539)
BO bosona	Downavg 81.2¢	$1.1K	$401.71	-$25.84	51% 4872-4649 (9521)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 73.7¢	$410.57	$374.84	-$35.73	51% 865-844 (1709)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 45.6¢	$378.37	$320.29	-$58.08	46% 861-1029 (1890)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 71.8¢	$302.57	$299.38	+$4.76	52% 2477-2332 (4809)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 61.8¢	$289.86	$292.1	+$2.24	49% 3552-3629 (7181)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.8¢	$179.77	$222.58	+$42.81
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.2¢	$110.09	$69.52	-$40.57
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 51.6¢	$271.79	$290.92	+$19.13	53% 977-882 (1859)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Downavg 60.6¢	$182.09	$289.66	+$107.56	47% 795-912 (1707)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Downavg 53.7¢	$199.77	$266.92	+$67.15	48% 807-879 (1686)
AS asdcaxzCTR	Upavg 71.6¢	$151.14	$253.15	+$102.01	50% 4512-4591 (9103)
OhioAIARB<$100	Downavg 46.1¢	$164.16	$177.79	+$13.63	50% 849-842 (1691)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.1¢	$82.93	$134	+$51.07
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.3¢	$81.23	$43.79	-$37.44
FairValueMachineCTR	Upavg 48.9¢	$238.01	$150.92	-$87.09	54% 4655-4026 (8681)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down

Invested

$8,972

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$87.98

Record

55%

497-402 (899)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$83.23

Record

43%

332-444 (776)

machine-earningARB<$100

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$133.67

Record

45%

617-764 (1381)

Both legs:

Down$1,80150¢+$826.98

Up$1,80150¢-$960.65

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$2,502.65

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$535.71

Record

51%

2128-2037 (4165)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,016.35

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$339.17

Record

59%

1137-785 (1922)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$1,001.07

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$3.11

Record

52%

5154-4832 (9986)

soswald1CTR

Invested

$950

Value

$902.61

PnL

-$18.17

Record

52%

3756-3495 (7251)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$646.49

Value

$844.11

PnL

+$197.62

Record

48%

1151-1270 (2421)

almach

Down

Invested

$889.77

Value

$796.2

PnL

-$93.56

Record

51%

1622-1530 (3152)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$880.35

Value

$743.62

PnL

-$136.73

Record

52%

1628-1527 (3155)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$531.7

Value

$593.77

PnL

+$62.07

Record

55%

4579-3695 (8274)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$619.43

Value

$527.44

PnL

-$91.99

Record

47%

1167-1297 (2464)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$452.24

Value

$510.14

PnL

+$57.9

Record

44%

821-1031 (1852)

Both legs:

Down$227.1643.6¢+$166.57

Up$225.0847.4¢-$108.67

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$588.74

Value

$489.77

PnL

+$2.36

Record

54%

4094-3445 (7539)

bosona

Down

Invested

$1,139.99

Value

$401.71

PnL

-$25.84

Record

51%

4872-4649 (9521)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$410.57

Value

$374.84

PnL

-$35.73

Record

51%

865-844 (1709)

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$378.37

Value

$320.29

PnL

-$58.08

Record

46%

861-1029 (1890)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$302.57

Value

$299.38

PnL

+$4.76

Record

52%

2477-2332 (4809)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$289.86

Value

$292.1

PnL

+$2.24

Record

49%

3552-3629 (7181)

Both legs:

Up$179.7761.8¢+$42.81

Down$110.0937.2¢-$40.57

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$271.79

Value

$290.92

PnL

+$19.13

Record

53%

977-882 (1859)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Down

Invested

$182.09

Value

$289.66

PnL

+$107.56

Record

47%

795-912 (1707)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Down

Invested

$199.77

Value

$266.92

PnL

+$67.15

Record

48%

807-879 (1686)

asdcaxzCTR

Invested

$151.14

Value

$253.15

PnL

+$102.01

Record

50%

4512-4591 (9103)

OhioAIARB<$100

Down

Invested

$164.16

Value

$177.79

PnL

+$13.63

Record

50%

849-842 (1691)

Both legs:

Down$82.9346.1¢+$51.07

Up$81.2347.3¢-$37.44

FairValueMachineCTR

Invested

$238.01

Value

$150.92

PnL

-$87.09

Record

54%

4655-4026 (8681)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

31 of 58 top traders (53%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed27 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.