Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
60
Down 70%
2 arb excluded
$11.2K
$-15.8K
Smart Money Signal
43 of 60 top traders (72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%36 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $9.0K | — | $-7.8K | 55% 497-402 (899) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.4K | 43% 332-444 (776) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 924-7 (931) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.3K | 45% 617-764 (1381) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $940 | +$2 | 52% 3756-3495 (7251) |
AL almach | Downavg 96.2¢ | $819.92 | $777.73 | -$42.19 | 51% 1622-1530 (3152) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 88¢ | $863.21 | $700 | -$163.21 | 47% 1167-1297 (2464) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 69.3¢ | $634.85 | $641.9 | +$59.73 | 59% 1137-785 (1922) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 73.3¢ | $558.01 | $601.92 | +$43.91 | 44% 821-1031 (1852) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52.5¢ | $570.73 | $496.72 | -$3.04 | 54% 4094-3445 (7539) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 84.2¢ | $387.1 | $336.67 | -$50.42 | 52% 5154-4832 (9986) |
SU suntori | Downavg 95¢ | $280.37 | $295.13 | +$14.76 | 46% 3204-3750 (6954) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $278.64 | $281.45 | +$2.81 | 98% 4362-90 (4452) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 86.1¢ | $476.69 | $271.02 | -$53.53 | 52% 2477-2332 (4809) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 68.4¢ | $250.81 | $258.07 | +$7.27 | 55% 4579-3695 (8274) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 78.7¢ | $266.58 | $231.61 | -$34.97 | 49% 3552-3629 (7181) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Upavg 41.1¢ | $249.86 | $87.78 | -$162.09 | 48% 1151-1270 (2421) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.1¢ | $205.45 | — | -$205.45 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.6¢ | $44.42 | $87.78 | +$43.36 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 90.7¢ | $199.72 | $183.33 | -$16.39 | 34% 801-1536 (2337) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Upavg 21.4¢ | $210.43 | $74.11 | -$136.32 | 52% 1628-1527 (3155) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 21.4¢ | $145.21 | — | -$145.21 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 88¢ | $65.22 | $74.11 | +$8.89 | |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 79¢ | $195.14 | $138.48 | -$56.66 | 46% 861-1029 (1890) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 82.5¢ | $168.43 | $130.53 | -$37.9 | 50% 4512-4591 (9103) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 81.3¢ | $111.05 | $136.64 | +$25.59 | 49% 2434-2485 (4919) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 95.2¢ | $133.81 | $123.81 | -$10 | 52% 449-409 (858) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 59.5¢ | $68.74 | $90 | +$33.71 | 48% 2373-2615 (4988) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Downavg 69.8¢ | $81.67 | $81 | +$13.94 | 50% 849-842 (1691) |
Invested
$8,956
Value
—
PnL
$-7.8K
Record
55%
497-402 (899)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.4K
Record
43%
332-444 (776)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
924-7 (931)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.3K
Record
45%
617-764 (1381)
Invested
$950
Value
$940
PnL
+$2
Record
52%
3756-3495 (7251)
Invested
$819.92
Value
$777.73
PnL
-$42.19
Record
51%
1622-1530 (3152)
machinelearnedInvested
$863.21
Value
$700
PnL
-$163.21
Record
47%
1167-1297 (2464)
Invested
$634.85
Value
$641.9
PnL
+$59.73
Record
59%
1137-785 (1922)
Invested
$558.01
Value
$601.92
PnL
+$43.91
Record
44%
821-1031 (1852)
Invested
$570.73
Value
$496.72
PnL
-$3.04
Record
54%
4094-3445 (7539)
Invested
$387.1
Value
$336.67
PnL
-$50.42
Record
52%
5154-4832 (9986)
Invested
$280.37
Value
$295.13
PnL
+$14.76
Record
46%
3204-3750 (6954)
Invested
$278.64
Value
$281.45
PnL
+$2.81
Record
98%
4362-90 (4452)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$476.69
Value
$271.02
PnL
-$53.53
Record
52%
2477-2332 (4809)
Invested
$250.81
Value
$258.07
PnL
+$7.27
Record
55%
4579-3695 (8274)
Invested
$266.58
Value
$231.61
PnL
-$34.97
Record
49%
3552-3629 (7181)
Invested
$249.86
Value
$87.78
PnL
-$162.09
Record
48%
1151-1270 (2421)
Both legs:
Invested
$199.72
Value
$183.33
PnL
-$16.39
Record
34%
801-1536 (2337)
Invested
$210.43
Value
$74.11
PnL
-$136.32
Record
52%
1628-1527 (3155)
Both legs:
Invested
$195.14
Value
$138.48
PnL
-$56.66
Record
46%
861-1029 (1890)
Invested
$168.43
Value
$130.53
PnL
-$37.9
Record
50%
4512-4591 (9103)
Invested
$111.05
Value
$136.64
PnL
+$25.59
Record
49%
2434-2485 (4919)
Invested
$133.81
Value
$123.81
PnL
-$10
Record
52%
449-409 (858)
ohioism<$100Invested
$68.74
Value
$90
PnL
+$33.71
Record
48%
2373-2615 (4988)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$81.67
Value
$81
PnL
+$13.94
Record
50%
849-842 (1691)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
THG.
Down — $3.5K
machine-earning
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
Down — $940
almach
Down — $777.73
machinelearned
Down — $700
Bonereaper
Down — $641.9
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $601.92
ByteBadger92
Down — $496.72