Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 70%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$41.3K

Combined PnL

-$630.33

Smart Money Signal

Down

48 of 67 top traders (72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down48 traders

Total Value$40.3K

Total Shares40,277

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Up19 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,504

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Down — 72%Up — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 50¢	$8.7K	$7.1K	-$64.02	55% 497-402 (899)
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$80.5	43% 332-444 (776)
MA machine-earning	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	+$304.86	45% 617-764 (1381)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$35	99% 924-7 (931)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 82.4¢	$2.7K	$3.2K	+$571.61	51% 2128-2037 (4165)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$85.49	70% 1783-757 (2540)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$18.24	53% 1555-1392 (2947)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.7¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$20.84	98% 4362-90 (4452)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 52.3¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$96.55	59% 1137-785 (1922)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 45.6¢	$730.93	$973.24	+$245.01	48% 1151-1270 (2421)
SO soswald1	Downavg 50¢	$950	$925	-$4.15	52% 3756-3495 (7251)
AL almach	Downavg 82.9¢	$1.3K	$925.96	-$151.98	51% 1622-1530 (3152)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 32.8¢	$552.06	$747.2	+$321.57	52% 2477-2332 (4809)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 60.5¢	$746.28	$731.33	-$14.95	34% 801-1536 (2337)
ST stepahead	Downavg 56.4¢	$717.52	$731.5	+$13.98	55% 4579-3695 (8274)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 65¢	$662.27	$645.99	-$16.28	52% 5154-4832 (9986)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 61.6¢	$691.17	$627.54	-$63.63	49% 3552-3629 (7181)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 52.6¢	$577.16	$553.52	+$24.64	44% 821-1031 (1852)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 48.6¢	$562.6	—	-$488.04	54% 4094-3445 (7539)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Downavg 83¢	$1.0K	$852.39	-$155.19	52% 1628-1527 (3155)
└ Up leg	Upavg 88¢	$300.34	—	-$300.34
└ Down leg	Downavg 83¢	$707.25	$852.39	+$145.14
cryingbabydicer87	Downavg 99¢	$396	$400	+$4	50% 1714-1745 (3459)
BO bosona	Downavg 75.5¢	$477.35	$395.51	-$81.84	51% 4872-4649 (9521)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 48.4¢	$314.88	—	-$299.4	46% 861-1029 (1890)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Downavg 63.1¢	$261.32	$233.26	-$28.06	50% 870-854 (1724)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 84.4¢	$371.5	$208.42	-$147.08	49% 2434-2485 (4919)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down

Invested

$8,721

Value

$7.1K

PnL

-$64.02

Record

55%

497-402 (899)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$80.5

Record

43%

332-444 (776)

machine-earning

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$304.86

Record

45%

617-764 (1381)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,465

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$35

Record

99%

924-7 (931)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$2,674.19

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$571.61

Record

51%

2128-2037 (4165)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$3,085.49

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$85.49

Record

70%

1783-757 (2540)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$1,903.57

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$18.24

Record

53%

1555-1392 (2947)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,610.16

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$20.84

Record

98%

4362-90 (4452)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,079.08

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$96.55

Record

59%

1137-785 (1922)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$730.93

Value

$973.24

PnL

+$245.01

Record

48%

1151-1270 (2421)

soswald1

Down

Invested

$950

Value

$925

PnL

-$4.15

Record

52%

3756-3495 (7251)

almach

Down

Invested

$1,251.49

Value

$925.96

PnL

-$151.98

Record

51%

1622-1530 (3152)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$552.06

Value

$747.2

PnL

+$321.57

Record

52%

2477-2332 (4809)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$746.28

Value

$731.33

PnL

-$14.95

Record

34%

801-1536 (2337)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$717.52

Value

$731.5

PnL

+$13.98

Record

55%

4579-3695 (8274)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$662.27

Value

$645.99

PnL

-$16.28

Record

52%

5154-4832 (9986)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$691.17

Value

$627.54

PnL

-$63.63

Record

49%

3552-3629 (7181)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$577.16

Value

$553.52

PnL

+$24.64

Record

44%

821-1031 (1852)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$562.6

Value

—

PnL

-$488.04

Record

54%

4094-3445 (7539)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,007.58

Value

$852.39

PnL

-$155.19

Record

52%

1628-1527 (3155)

Both legs:

Up$300.3488¢-$300.34

Down$707.2583¢+$145.14

cryingbabydicer87

Down

Invested

$396

Value

$400

PnL

+$4

Record

50%

1714-1745 (3459)

bosona

Down

Invested

$477.35

Value

$395.51

PnL

-$81.84

Record

51%

4872-4649 (9521)

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$314.88

Value

—

PnL

-$299.4

Record

46%

861-1029 (1890)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Down

Invested

$261.32

Value

$233.26

PnL

-$28.06

Record

50%

870-854 (1724)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$371.5

Value

$208.42

PnL

-$147.08

Record

49%

2434-2485 (4919)

Smart Money Signal

Down

48 of 67 top traders (72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x47eb715a...3f7ee1

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794749100

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down — $7.1K

-$64.02

arcsine-barrister

Down — $5.0K

+$80.5

machine-earning

Down — $3.8K

+$304.86

THG.

Down — $3.5K

+$35

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $3.2K

+$571.61

BoneOhio

Down — $3.0K

-$85.49

0x50f7

Down — $1.9K

+$18.24

hoodquant

Down — $1.6K

+$20.84

Bonereaper

Down — $1.2K

+$96.55

CrouchPredictions

Down — $973.24

+$245.01

Trade on Polymarket