Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET
Resolved Up. 91% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
57
Up 91%
5 arb excluded
$23.0K
$-9.9K
Smart Money Signal
52 of 57 top traders (91%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-6.6K | 55% 497-402 (899) |
SU suntori | Upavg 95.3¢ | $4.7K | $4.9K | +$231.62 | 46% 3204-3750 (6954) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.1K | 43% 332-444 (776) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 99% 924-7 (931) |
MA machine-earning | Upavg 50¢ | $4.0K | $2.8K | -$92.18 | 45% 617-764 (1381) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 85.2¢ | $926.88 | $961.7 | +$34.82 | 48% 1151-1270 (2421) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 85.6¢ | $932.73 | $937.44 | +$4.71 | 59% 1137-785 (1922) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 83.1¢ | $1.2K | $956.82 | +$24.75 | 49% 2434-2485 (4919) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 78.7¢ | $773.23 | $856.38 | +$83.15 | 47% 1167-1297 (2464) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 78.7¢ | $674.1 | $856.38 | +$182.28 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 8.4¢ | $99.13 | — | -$99.13 | |
MO mo-money | Upavg 92.1¢ | $1.2K | $804.33 | +$29.59 | 52% 1628-1527 (3155) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 82¢ | $573.8 | $598.79 | +$24.99 | 55% 4579-3695 (8274) |
BO bosona | Upavg 97.9¢ | $2.0K | $595.18 | +$168.08 | 51% 4872-4649 (9521) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 87.1¢ | $524.73 | $522.03 | +$17.45 | 50% 4512-4591 (9103) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 89.1¢ | $520.23 | $536.28 | +$16.05 | 52% 5154-4832 (9986) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 53.6¢ | $556.48 | $489.72 | +$10.05 | 54% 4094-3445 (7539) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 81.9¢ | $432.81 | $479.92 | +$47.11 | 49% 3552-3629 (7181) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 82.8¢ | $448.29 | $446.97 | -$1.32 | 44% 821-1031 (1852) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 82.8¢ | $370.22 | $446.97 | +$76.75 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 17.5¢ | $78.07 | — | -$78.07 | |
AL almach | Upavg 96¢ | $909.28 | $425.49 | +$47.86 | 51% 1622-1530 (3152) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 86.2¢ | $507.41 | $353.05 | -$8.79 | 52% 2477-2332 (4809) |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Upavg 88.5¢ | $207.94 | $199.99 | -$7.95 | 52% 449-409 (858) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 88.5¢ | $176.94 | $199.99 | +$23.05 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 10.3¢ | $31 | — | -$31 | |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 85.8¢ | $178.97 | $208.52 | +$29.55 | 46% 861-1029 (1890) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Upavg 82.8¢ | $187.14 | $201.09 | +$13.95 | 50% 870-854 (1724) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 91.8¢ | $189.24 | $192.01 | +$2.77 | 53% 1008-899 (1907) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 95.7¢ | $165.11 | $143 | -$11.35 | 62% 4514-2735 (7249) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 87.9¢ | $129.62 | $130.19 | +$0.81 | 67% 3861-1939 (5800) |
Invested
$8,786
Value
—
PnL
$-6.6K
Record
55%
497-402 (899)
Invested
$4,682.23
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$231.62
Record
46%
3204-3750 (6954)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.1K
Record
43%
332-444 (776)
Invested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
99%
924-7 (931)
Invested
$4,000
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$92.18
Record
45%
617-764 (1381)
Invested
$926.88
Value
$961.7
PnL
+$34.82
Record
48%
1151-1270 (2421)
Invested
$932.73
Value
$937.44
PnL
+$4.71
Record
59%
1137-785 (1922)
Invested
$1,235.22
Value
$956.82
PnL
+$24.75
Record
49%
2434-2485 (4919)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$773.23
Value
$856.38
PnL
+$83.15
Record
47%
1167-1297 (2464)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,242.75
Value
$804.33
PnL
+$29.59
Record
52%
1628-1527 (3155)
Invested
$573.8
Value
$598.79
PnL
+$24.99
Record
55%
4579-3695 (8274)
Invested
$1,989.31
Value
$595.18
PnL
+$168.08
Record
51%
4872-4649 (9521)
Invested
$524.73
Value
$522.03
PnL
+$17.45
Record
50%
4512-4591 (9103)
Invested
$520.23
Value
$536.28
PnL
+$16.05
Record
52%
5154-4832 (9986)
Invested
$556.48
Value
$489.72
PnL
+$10.05
Record
54%
4094-3445 (7539)
Invested
$432.81
Value
$479.92
PnL
+$47.11
Record
49%
3552-3629 (7181)
Invested
$448.29
Value
$446.97
PnL
-$1.32
Record
44%
821-1031 (1852)
Both legs:
Invested
$909.28
Value
$425.49
PnL
+$47.86
Record
51%
1622-1530 (3152)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$507.41
Value
$353.05
PnL
-$8.79
Record
52%
2477-2332 (4809)
Invested
$207.94
Value
$199.99
PnL
-$7.95
Record
52%
449-409 (858)
Both legs:
Invested
$178.97
Value
$208.52
PnL
+$29.55
Record
46%
861-1029 (1890)
Invested
$187.14
Value
$201.09
PnL
+$13.95
Record
50%
870-854 (1724)
Invested
$189.24
Value
$192.01
PnL
+$2.77
Record
53%
1008-899 (1907)
Invested
$165.11
Value
$143
PnL
-$11.35
Record
62%
4514-2735 (7249)
Invested
$129.62
Value
$130.19
PnL
+$0.81
Record
67%
3861-1939 (5800)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
suntori
Up — $4.9K
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.5K
machine-earning
Up — $2.8K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $961.7
Bonereaper
Up — $937.44
uninformedfloww
Up — $956.82
machinelearned
ARBArbitrage — excluded
mo-money
Up — $804.33