Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET

Resolved Up. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 75%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.4K

Combined PnL

$-4.8K

Smart Money Signal

41 of 54 top traders (76%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%35 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up41 traders

Total Value$23.5K

Total Shares23,527

Combined PnL+$515.99

Down13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares7,112

Combined PnL$-5.3K

Up — 76%Down — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.9K	$7.6K	-$2.59	55% 497-402 (899)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.8K	43% 332-444 (776)
MA machine-earningARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.4K	-$146.45	45% 617-764 (1381)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.7K	$3.4K	+$1.8K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.0K	—	$-2.0K
TH THG.	Upavg 98.9¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$36.81	99% 924-7 (931)
BoneOhio	Upavg 98.7¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$43.72	70% 1783-757 (2540)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30.08	53% 1555-1392 (2947)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$950	$930	-$1.8	52% 3756-3495 (7251)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$465	$930	+$466.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$462.5	—	-$468.25
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 66.9¢	$809.92	$871.04	+$61.13	59% 1137-785 (1922)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.1¢	$718.07	$732	+$13.93	98% 4362-90 (4452)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 79.6¢	$681	$615.18	-$32.23	50% 4512-4591 (9103)
BO bosona	Upavg 75.3¢	$535.23	$711.09	+$175.86	51% 4872-4649 (9521)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 79.4¢	$561.88	$557.22	-$4.66	52% 5154-4832 (9986)
└ Up leg	Upavg 79.4¢	$442.7	$557.22	+$114.52
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.5¢	$119.18	—	-$119.18
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.5¢	$528.34	$490	-$2.85	54% 4094-3445 (7539)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.5¢	$247.62	$490	+$247.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.8¢	$244.03	—	-$250.4
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 72.5¢	$479.16	$512.45	+$33.29	44% 821-1031 (1852)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.5¢	$371.72	$512.45	+$140.73
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.2¢	$107.44	—	-$107.44
AL almach	Upavg 87.1¢	$321.02	$365.33	+$44.31	51% 1622-1530 (3152)
ST stepahead	Upavg 66.5¢	$364.71	$350.21	-$14.5	55% 4579-3695 (8274)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 64.6¢	$356.78	$342.95	-$13.21	49% 3552-3629 (7181)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 47.9¢	$314.26	—	-$314.26	51% 2128-2037 (4165)
machinelearned	Upavg 72¢	$300.85	$399.99	+$99.14	47% 1167-1297 (2464)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 58.7¢	$339.65	$283.5	-$4.34	52% 2477-2332 (4809)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.7¢	$166.3	$283.5	+$112.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 39¢	$119.62	—	-$116.73
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 67.9¢	$269.59	$260.58	-$9.01	46% 861-1029 (1890)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.9¢	$176.97	$260.58	+$83.61
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.4¢	$92.62	—	-$92.62
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 34.1¢	$269.97	$163.88	-$106.09	48% 1151-1270 (2421)
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.1¢	$183.14	—	-$183.14
└ Up leg	Upavg 53¢	$86.83	$163.88	+$77.05
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 72.4¢	$292.63	$264.16	-$28.47	34% 801-1536 (2337)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 75¢	$120	$160	+$40	49% 2434-2485 (4919)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Upavg 64.9¢	$136.71	$144.5	+$7.79	51% 865-844 (1709)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.9¢	$93.8	$144.5	+$50.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.6¢	$42.91	—	-$42.91

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,857

Value

$7.6K

PnL

-$2.59

Record

55%

497-402 (899)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.8K

Record

43%

332-444 (776)

machine-earningARB<$100

Down

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$146.45

Record

45%

617-764 (1381)

Both legs:

Up$1,689.7550¢+$1.8K

Down$1,957.5250¢$-2.0K

THG.

Invested

$3,463.19

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$36.81

Record

99%

924-7 (931)

BoneOhio

Invested

$3,327.91

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$43.72

Record

70%

1783-757 (2540)

0x50f7

Invested

$2,977.93

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30.08

Record

53%

1555-1392 (2947)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$950

Value

$930

PnL

-$1.8

Record

52%

3756-3495 (7251)

Both legs:

Up$46550¢+$466.45

Down$462.550¢-$468.25

Bonereaper

Invested

$809.92

Value

$871.04

PnL

+$61.13

Record

59%

1137-785 (1922)

hoodquant

Invested

$718.07

Value

$732

PnL

+$13.93

Record

98%

4362-90 (4452)

asdcaxz

Invested

$681

Value

$615.18

PnL

-$32.23

Record

50%

4512-4591 (9103)

bosona

Invested

$535.23

Value

$711.09

PnL

+$175.86

Record

51%

4872-4649 (9521)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$561.88

Value

$557.22

PnL

-$4.66

Record

52%

5154-4832 (9986)

Both legs:

Up$442.779.4¢+$114.52

Down$119.1828.5¢-$119.18

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$528.34

Value

$490

PnL

-$2.85

Record

54%

4094-3445 (7539)

Both legs:

Up$247.6250.5¢+$247.55

Down$244.0347.8¢-$250.4

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$479.16

Value

$512.45

PnL

+$33.29

Record

44%

821-1031 (1852)

Both legs:

Up$371.7272.5¢+$140.73

Down$107.4426.2¢-$107.44

almach

Invested

$321.02

Value

$365.33

PnL

+$44.31

Record

51%

1622-1530 (3152)

stepahead

Invested

$364.71

Value

$350.21

PnL

-$14.5

Record

55%

4579-3695 (8274)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$356.78

Value

$342.95

PnL

-$13.21

Record

49%

3552-3629 (7181)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$314.26

Value

—

PnL

-$314.26

Record

51%

2128-2037 (4165)

machinelearned

Invested

$300.85

Value

$399.99

PnL

+$99.14

Record

47%

1167-1297 (2464)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$339.65

Value

$283.5

PnL

-$4.34

Record

52%

2477-2332 (4809)

Both legs:

Up$166.358.7¢+$112.39

Down$119.6239¢-$116.73

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$269.59

Value

$260.58

PnL

-$9.01

Record

46%

861-1029 (1890)

Both legs:

Up$176.9767.9¢+$83.61

Down$92.6227.4¢-$92.62

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$269.97

Value

$163.88

PnL

-$106.09

Record

48%

1151-1270 (2421)

Both legs:

Down$183.1434.1¢-$183.14

Up$86.8353¢+$77.05

ply-pm0

Invested

$292.63

Value

$264.16

PnL

-$28.47

Record

34%

801-1536 (2337)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$120

Value

$160

PnL

+$40

Record

49%

2434-2485 (4919)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Invested

$136.71

Value

$144.5

PnL

+$7.79

Record

51%

865-844 (1709)

Both legs:

Up$93.864.9¢+$50.7

Down$42.9136.6¢-$42.91

Smart Money Signal

41 of 54 top traders (76%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%35 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x9fff6604...e32953

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794748500

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $7.6K

arcsine-barrister

Down — $0

machine-earning

Arbitrage — excluded

THG.

Up — $3.5K

+$36.81

BoneOhio

Up — $3.4K

+$43.72

0x50f7

Up — $3.0K

+$30.08

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$1.8

Bonereaper

Up — $871.04

+$61.13

hoodquant

Up — $732

+$13.93

asdcaxz

Up — $615.18

-$32.23

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