Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
57
Up 87%
6 arb excluded
$27.1K
$-3.3K
Smart Money Signal
50 of 57 top traders (88%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $7.1K | +$39.03 | 55% 497-402 (899) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$52.9 | 43% 332-444 (776) |
MA machine-earningCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $4.0K | — | $-3.6K | 45% 617-764 (1381) |
TH THG. | Upavg 98.9¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$38.53 | 99% 924-7 (931) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 75.5¢ | $1.1K | $919.94 | -$178.96 | 59% 1137-785 (1922) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 92.3¢ | $780.78 | $799.91 | +$19.13 | 52% 1628-1527 (3155) |
BO bosona | Upavg 85.6¢ | $754.45 | $863.27 | +$108.82 | 51% 4872-4649 (9521) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 76.9¢ | $584.06 | $596.65 | +$12.59 | 55% 4579-3695 (8274) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 78.5¢ | $529.57 | $563.92 | +$37.74 | 50% 4512-4591 (9103) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $587.65 | $511.79 | -$75.87 | 44% 821-1031 (1852) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 71¢ | $363.37 | $511.79 | +$148.42 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 29.9¢ | $224.29 | — | -$224.29 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 73.1¢ | $561.24 | $552.95 | -$3.99 | 49% 3552-3629 (7181) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 82.6¢ | $554.5 | $545.91 | -$3.8 | 52% 5154-4832 (9986) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 53.3¢ | $583.98 | $492.97 | +$5.38 | 54% 4094-3445 (7539) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 66.9¢ | $348.61 | $471.15 | +$125.82 | 53% 977-882 (1859) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 73.9¢ | $514.86 | $429.93 | -$1.86 | 52% 2477-2332 (4809) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 85.5¢ | $416.75 | $329.22 | -$87.53 | 48% 1151-1270 (2421) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 77.1¢ | $361.34 | $286.5 | +$9.66 | 34% 801-1536 (2337) |
AL almach | Upavg 76.3¢ | $299.73 | $393.03 | +$93.3 | 51% 1622-1530 (3152) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 70.8¢ | $289.24 | $243.35 | -$45.89 | 46% 861-1029 (1890) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 70.8¢ | $172.2 | $243.35 | +$71.15 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 30.5¢ | $117.04 | — | -$117.04 | |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 71.7¢ | $234.14 | $277.01 | +$42.87 | 54% 4655-4026 (8681) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 84.9¢ | $213.43 | $229 | +$15.56 | 30% 572-1335 (1907) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 78.8¢ | $191.07 | $214.3 | +$23.23 | 51% 879-837 (1716) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 55.9¢ | $112.27 | $201.01 | +$88.74 | 49% 2434-2485 (4919) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Upavg 81.9¢ | $196.95 | $187.13 | -$9.82 | 51% 864-835 (1699) |
 OhioAIARB<$100 | Upavg 70.4¢ | $138.87 | $104.54 | -$34.33 | 50% 849-842 (1691) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 70.4¢ | $73.55 | $104.54 | +$30.99 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 7.6¢ | $65.32 | — | -$65.32 |
Invested
$8,810
Value
$7.1K
PnL
+$39.03
Record
55%
497-402 (899)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$52.9
Record
43%
332-444 (776)
Invested
$4,000
Value
—
PnL
$-3.6K
Record
45%
617-764 (1381)
Invested
$3,461.47
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$38.53
Record
99%
924-7 (931)
Invested
$1,100.54
Value
$919.94
PnL
-$178.96
Record
59%
1137-785 (1922)
Invested
$780.78
Value
$799.91
PnL
+$19.13
Record
52%
1628-1527 (3155)
Invested
$754.45
Value
$863.27
PnL
+$108.82
Record
51%
4872-4649 (9521)
Invested
$584.06
Value
$596.65
PnL
+$12.59
Record
55%
4579-3695 (8274)
Invested
$529.57
Value
$563.92
PnL
+$37.74
Record
50%
4512-4591 (9103)
Invested
$587.65
Value
$511.79
PnL
-$75.87
Record
44%
821-1031 (1852)
Both legs:
Invested
$561.24
Value
$552.95
PnL
-$3.99
Record
49%
3552-3629 (7181)
Invested
$554.5
Value
$545.91
PnL
-$3.8
Record
52%
5154-4832 (9986)
Invested
$583.98
Value
$492.97
PnL
+$5.38
Record
54%
4094-3445 (7539)
Invested
$348.61
Value
$471.15
PnL
+$125.82
Record
53%
977-882 (1859)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$514.86
Value
$429.93
PnL
-$1.86
Record
52%
2477-2332 (4809)
Invested
$416.75
Value
$329.22
PnL
-$87.53
Record
48%
1151-1270 (2421)
Invested
$361.34
Value
$286.5
PnL
+$9.66
Record
34%
801-1536 (2337)
Invested
$299.73
Value
$393.03
PnL
+$93.3
Record
51%
1622-1530 (3152)
Invested
$289.24
Value
$243.35
PnL
-$45.89
Record
46%
861-1029 (1890)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineInvested
$234.14
Value
$277.01
PnL
+$42.87
Record
54%
4655-4026 (8681)
NIULAI4Invested
$213.43
Value
$229
PnL
+$15.56
Record
30%
572-1335 (1907)
Invested
$191.07
Value
$214.3
PnL
+$23.23
Record
51%
879-837 (1716)
Invested
$112.27
Value
$201.01
PnL
+$88.74
Record
49%
2434-2485 (4919)
Invested
$196.95
Value
$187.13
PnL
-$9.82
Record
51%
864-835 (1699)
OhioAIARB<$100Invested
$138.87
Value
$104.54
PnL
-$34.33
Record
50%
849-842 (1691)
Both legs:
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $7.1K
arcsine-barrister
Up — $5.0K
machine-earning
CTRDown — $0
THG.
Up — $3.5K
Bonereaper
Up — $919.94
mo-money
Up — $799.91
bosona
Up — $863.27
stepahead
Up — $596.65
asdcaxz
Up — $563.92
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded